Packers’ $48 Million Star Predicted to Lose Starting Job to Rookie

The Green Bay Packers already ushered in a new era at running back by letting Aaron Jones walk and signing Josh Jacobs, but another big change might be coming swiftly on the horizon.

Seth Walder of ESPN predicted on Monday, September 2, that MarShawn Lloyd will usurp Jacobs as the Packers’ starter before the year is out, even despite Green Bay inking the former All-Pro to a four-year contract worth $48 million over the offseason.

“MarShawn Lloyd will take over the No. 1 running back role by the end of the season,” Walder wrote. “Free agent signee Josh Jacobs was very effective in 2022 but recorded negative rush yards over expectation (per NFL Next Gen Stats) in 2020, 2021 and 2023. Last season, his RYOE total was minus-86. I’m willing to bet that 2022 was Jacobs’ outlier and that the Packers will prefer Lloyd as their featured back by December.”

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Josh Jacobs Has 1 Year to Prove Himself in Packers Offense

Bouncing Jacobs for Lloyd wouldn’t actually be as painful as it might look given how the Packers structured Jacobs’ deal.

The team guaranteed Jacobs, 26, only $12.5 million total, and his annual average salary totals out to $12 million. In essence then, the running back’s contract is functionally an expensive one-year deal, after which he must prove himself worthy of the corresponding salary cap hits over the subsequent seasons.

Meanwhile, Lloyd is a third-round rookie out of USC on a four-year deal worth just $5.8 million. Jacobs doesn’t just have to be good to keep Lloyd away from his job; he probably has to be great considering how much more financial value the rookie represents.

Jacobs led the league in rushing in 2022 with 1,653 yards and added 12 TDs, though that performance was sandwiched between performances of 872 yards and 805 yards rushing, respectively. He also missed four games last year and two in 2021.

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AJ Dillon’s Neck Injury Puts MarShawn Lloyd in Position to Challenge for Starting Job Immediately

Lloyd picked up 7.1 yards per carry on his way to 820 rushing yards and 9 TDs during his sole season at USC, per Football Reference. Lloyd also caught 13 passes for 232 receiving yards while playing alongside quarterback and No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams.

He probably would have had a fight in front of him for the RB2 spot with AJ Dillon if the veteran back hadn’t suffered a season-ending neck injury during the preseason. Instead, Lloyd is now the clear second on the depth chart ahead of Emanuel Wilson in third-string.

Lloyd injured his hamstring in the Packers’ preseason opener and missed the rest of the preseason. According to Zone Coverage, “many suspected” he would be placed on IR to open the season.

Dillon re-signed in Green Bay over the offseason on a one-year contract worth just $2.75 million after a disappointing 2023 campaign. But while Dillon missed on his shot to become the team’s lead back last year, Lloyd is now perfectly positioned to secure the job for years to come.

If Walder is correct and Jacobs doesn’t stand up to his contract, Lloyd only needs to play well enough to step into a starting role and then defend that position against the inevitable newcomers in upcoming seasons.

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