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One thing that has become clear about this Green Bay Packers season is that, through all the highs and lows, the team has gotten a pretty clear picture of its running back situation. And that is likely to mean the position will be overhauled in the coming months when NFL free agency hits.
Aaron Jones turns 29 next week, which serves as a handy expiration date for modern NFL running backs. He was injured in the Chargers game in Week 11, and was inactive for Week 12, the fourth time he has been inactive this season. Far from being the star lead back the Packers had hoped this season, Jones has 66 carries for 245 yards, an underwhelming 3.7 yards per carry.
A.J. Dillon has picked up some of the slack, but with 131 carries and 448 yards, he has not been a picture or reliability, either.
That’s why it was notable this week when Spotrac examined several 2024 free-agent running backs and picked the Packers as one of the three teams that would be “listening” on a contract offer for Cowboys running back Tony Pollard, currently on a franchise-tagged one-year, $10.1 million contract.
Cowboys in a Tough Spot in NFL Free Agency
Here’s how contract analyst Mike Ginnitti of Spotrac explained the Tony Pollard likely outcome this week, noting that the Cowboys have priorities on the roster well ahead of Pollard—namely, star quarterback Dak Prescott and star receiver CeeDee Lamb, both of whom could be the top-paid players at their positions.
That could present an opportunity for the Packers in NFL free agency:
“The Cowboys have contracts to hand out left and right this Winter/Spring, including a couple of blockbusters for Prescott & Lamb. A $13M second franchise tag for Pollard seems inconceivable right now, but so does any sort of multi-year guaranteed extension if we’re being honest. Pollard hits the open market, seeking a cap adjusted version of Miles Sanders’ free agent deal (3 years, $20.5M). Green Bay, Chicago, & Buffalo are listening,” Ginnitti wrote.
The Packers currently have the 19th-rated run game, according to Pro Football Focus’ grading system. Dillon is rated the 20th running back in the league, with a solid grade of 72.0, but Jones has struggled even when healthy, with a grade of 59.4. That’s 50th among 57 running backs.
Packers Could Overhaul Running Game
Of the teams mentioned as potential suitors for Pollard, the Packers could be the team most likely to give him a better deal than the Cowboys can afford. In the offseason, remember, the Packers surprised many by pursuing a trade for then-holdout running back Jonathan Taylor of the Colts. Taylor is 24, and the Packers saw him a more natural fit on the team’s timeline than Jones.
CBS Sports NFL insider Josina Anderson reported: “I’m told both the #Dolphins and #Packers were both willing to give RB Jonathan Taylor a contract that placed him among the highest-paid running backs in the NFL entering this season, per source.”
Taylor wound up signing a deal worth $14 million per year. The Packers would not need to go that high for Tony Pollard, but he could form an interesting tandem with Jones, if he can return to health and serve in a platoon role. Dillon is a free agent after the season, and his improved play in recent weeks could be a wildcard here.
In the end, though, Pollard could be the kind of talented young veteran the Packers are looking for to boost the roster in NFL free agency. It’s likely they’ll address the running back spot in the draft, but adding a bargain starter to hold the spot is likely, too.
Pollard figures to be a bargain, per Spotrac: “As a $965,000 player in 2022, Pollard held a 98.5% value in our system. As a $10.1M player in 2023, Pollard currently holds a 10.1% True Value, or, he’s producing at a $1.01M value currently – which just so happens to be his minimum available salary.”
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