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Indianapolis Colts edge rusher Kwity Paye experienced about an average rookie campaign. That was a bit disappointing since the Colts drafted Paye in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft and needed more of a pass rush to earn a playoff berth last season.
But second-year NFL players are known for making some of the biggest improvements around the league. NFL writer Kambui Bomani of Pro Football Focus predicts that Paye could be not only one of the most improvement players for the Indianapolis Colts but throughout the entire NFL in 2022.
Bomani included Paye on a list of six potential AFC breakout candidates for the 2022 season.
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Kwity Paye Ready to Explode as a Pass Rusher
PFF awarded Paye an overall player grade of 69.6 out of 100, which ranked the rookie 25th out 55 edge rushers who lined up for at least 50% of his team’s snaps during last season.
Of the four areas that made up his grade — run defense, tackling, pass rush and coverage — Paye scored best at pass rushing with a 71.3 grade. As Bomani noted, Paye was even better at putting pressure on the quarterback on passing downs.
“Paye registered a 77.5 pass-rushing grade in true pass sets last year, a top-35 mark among all pass-rushers,” Bomani wrote. “He also recorded a 20% win rate while totaling 20 hurries, three hits and four sacks on those reps — all in his first NFL season.
“Paye’s pass-rushing grade was the highest of all Colts edge rushers, and he racked up the second-most pressures on the team (39).”
The 23-year-old also had 32 combined tackles, 10 quarterback hits and 3 tackles for loss. Furthermore, he forced a fumble and had 1 pass defense.
PFF gave Paye a better overall pass rushing grade than Yannick Ngakoue, who has posted at least 8.0 sacks in all six of his NFL seasons. Last season, Ngakoue had 10.0 sacks.
The Colts acquired Ngakoue this offseason to bolster their pass rush. They are also switching defensive systems with new coordinator Gus Bradley.
Paye could benefit from both of those additions.
“With the pre-draft addition of Yannick Ngakoue into the fold, Paye’s numbers could increase this year with a bookend edge rusher on the opposite side,” wrote Bomani.
“Paye’s rookie impact went under the radar because he didn’t have the sack numbers of a Micah Parsons. However, he has the potential to build upon that in 2022, and a change in scheme with added reinforcements can elevate him into a prime AFC breakout candidate.”
Improvement Needed in Kwity Paye’s Run Defense
The biggest area where Paye needs to improve is defending the run. PFF gave Paye a well below average grade against the run.
Of the 55 edge rushers who played at least half their team’s snaps, he was ranked 39th in run defense.
Interestingly, PFF ranked Ngakoue dead last against the run among those 55 edge rushers.
The Colts finished 10th in rushing yards allowed, yielding about 109.1 yards on the ground per game. It’ll be interesting to see if that can continue with two subpar run defenders — according to the PFF player grades — on the edge this season.
To truly breakout in his second season, Paye will likely have to improve against the run.
The good news for the Colts, though, is Paye doesn’t have to be elite versus the run in order for the team to have an above average run defense. Darius Leonard received the top PFF grade in run defense among linebackers last season. Defensive lineman Grover Stewart also earned one of the top 20 run defense grades at his position from PFF.
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