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With the Indianapolis Colts all but eliminated from playoff contention and facing the prospect of a top-10 draft pick, it’s time to look forward to the 2023 season. Some moves are expected for the coming rebuild, like moving on from Matt Ryan and interviewing for a new head coach.
However, SB Nation Colts writer Andrew Aziz suggests the unexpected, positing that the Colts should move on from star running back Jonathan Taylor. Aziz suggested that the 2023 offseason would be an ideal to time to trade Taylor “while his value is high,” suggesting the star running back could fetch “a 2nd and 4th round pick.”
In the 2021 season, Taylor set a Colts’ rushing record with 1,811 yards and 18 touchdowns on his way to the NFL’s rushing crown. In 2022, Taylor had a major dip in production with 861 yards and 4 touchdowns on the ground through 15 weeks, primarily due to an underperforming offensive line and reoccurring injuries which will most likely end his season early.
Despite the down year, Taylor would be a top target on the trade market if made available due to his age, low contract, and performance history. For the Colts, a Taylor trade would allow the rebuilding team to get a high return in compensation and allow the Colts to avoid picking up Taylor’s second contract, which is expected to have a very high price tag.
The Second Contract
The expected price tag for Taylor’s contract would be a huge reason for the Colts to seek moving on from him. Right now, Taylor is on a team-friendly rookie deal, but one just has to look at the recent history of second contracts for running backs to see why this would be a huge risk.
Prior to the 2018 season, coming off a stellar campaign, Rams running back Todd Gurley signed a market-setting second contract for four years at $57.5 million. Gurley was released two years later and is currently out of the league.
In 2019, Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott signed his second contract, a whopping six-year extension worth up to $90 million. In 2022, Elliott is being consistently outplayed by his backup Tony Pollard.
In 2020, New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara signed his second contract, a five-year extension worth up to $75 million. In 2022, Kamara has more fumbles than touchdowns.
The second contract is a huge risk.
Potential Return Value for Jonathan Taylor
Historically, top running backs in the prime of their careers rarely hit the open market for free agency, with most acquisitions coming in the form of trades. The 2010 trade of Marshawn Lynch from the Buffalo Bills to the Seattle Seahawks is one of the more comparable situations in NFL history to the Colts and Taylor.
Lynch was a pro bowl running back for the Bills, and upon entering the 2010 season, was in line for his second contract. The Bills entered the season looking at a rebuild. Instead of investing in an expensive running back, the Bills sent Lynch to Seattle, netting a fourth-round pick in return. As it currently stands, Taylor is a better player than Lynch was at that time, so if made available, the Colts would expect a return more in line with another running back trade.
Earlier in 2022, the Carolina Panthers traded All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey in a mid-season move to the San Francisco 49ers. McCaffrey netted a return of a second, third, fourth and fifth-round pick, and this would be more in line with what the Colts could possibly receive for Taylor.
The Colts’ 2022 season has been a disaster, and every move must be on the table as the team looks to improve for the 2023 season.
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