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The Indianapolis Colts have won 11 games just once in the last seven seasons. Furthermore, new Colts starting quarterback Matt Ryan has won 11 games in a single season just once since 2012.
But with Indianapolis’ over/under win total set at 10, NFL analyst Brent Sobleski of Bleacher Report was still confident in selecting the Colts to reach the over — and win at least 11 games.
“Adding Ryan’s steadying presence might have been the most critical component of the Colts’ offseason,” Sobleski wrote. “But other pieces fell into place at other key spots.
“With Derrick Henry coming back from an injury-plagued season, and the Tennessee Titans trading wide receiver A.J. Brown, the door is cracked for the Colts to burst through and capture their first AFC South title since 2014.”
That doesn’t mean Sobleski considers the Colts the runaway favorite in the AFC South. With their over/under win total set at nine, Sobleski also selected the Titans for “the over.”
Still, picking the Colts to reach more than 10 wins this season is a sign that Sobleski sees the Colts experiencing one of their best seasons since the team went to its last Super Bowl with Peyton Manning.
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Pieces Falling Into Place for Colts?
Indianapolis hasn’t won a division title or a playoff game since Luck retired in part because the team hasn’t been able to replace the retired quarterback. Carson Wentz played well at times in 2021 but then completely struggled other weeks. Most notably, Wentz had one of his worst games of the season versus the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 18.
The Colts replaced Wentz, though, by acquiring Matt Ryan from the Atlanta Falcons for merely a third-round pick. It was the first of many shrewd moves for Colts general manager Chris Ballard.
“Adding Ryan’s steadying presence might have been the most critical component of the Colts’ offseason, but other pieces fell into place at other key spots,” wrote Sobleski.
In addition to Ryan, the Colts traded for defensive end Yannick Ngakoue, who has at least 8.0 sacks in each of his six NFL seasons and signed cornerback and former Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore.
During the 2022 NFL Draft, Indianapolis selected wide receiver Alec Pierce, tight end Jelani Woods and left tackle Bernhard Raimann to help fill holes on offense. The Colts also traded back into the third round to draft safety Nick Cross, who could see more snaps with veteran safety Khari Willis abruptly announcing his retirement on June 15.
Tough Stretch in the Middle of the Season
If the Colts are going to win 11 games and capture their first AFC South crown in eight years, they will have to survive their tough stretch of games in the middle of the season.
Indianapolis has five of its six division games scheduled for before Halloween. With the AFC South expected to be one of the weaker divisions in the conference, the Colts could get off to a fast start.
But then starting on November 6, the Colts will have five straight games against 2021 playoff teams. After that, Indianapolis also has matchups with the Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Chargers, both of whom won at least eight games last year and could be better this fall.
That eight-week stretch (including the bye week) will likely determine if Sobleski is correct in picking the Colts to win 11 games this season.
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