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Despite allowing 151 points over the last four games, the Indianapolis Colts’ biggest issue heading into the 2023 offseason isn’t the team’s defense, according to The Athletic writer Mike Sando.
Based on performance, the Colts’ “problems are isolated in one area” — the offense, which is tied 31st in the NFL in points per game (16.1), he wrote in his weekly Pick Six column, published on January 2.
The Colts’ offense was already hitting a steady decline at the time ex-head coach Frank Reich was fired on November 7, but the team’s inability to score points got worse under interim head coach Jeff Saturday.
Sando wrote that the Colts’ most recent loss, to the New York Giants on January 1, “felt like a new low,” with the organization in “free-fall mode and marked by an erratic owner forcing unsound decisions relating to the coaching staff and quarterback position.”
Heading into Week 18, the Colts have five wins below expectation, according to Sando’s column. The only team that ranks worse is the Denver Broncos, who have 6.5 wins below expectation.
Colts Offense Continues to Stall
Indianapolis’ loss to the Giants was yet another showcase of an inept offense. The Colts also had to make yet another quarterback switch as Nick Foles went down with a rib injury, forcing Sam Ehlinger to play in relief.
No matter who has lined up behind center, the Colts’ struggles have been on display for the league to see all year long.
Sando used on-field performance analytics to measure the Colts’ struggles. Using expected points added, or EPA, as an indicator of the Colts’ faults, he saw a wide margin between the team’s offense and two other units. According to Action Network, EPA is described as an “estimate (of) how many points a team is expected to score on a possession on average given the situation.”
“Viewed this way, we see that the Colts’ offense is entirely responsible for the team plummeting into oblivion,” Sando wrote. “The defense and special teams have produced slightly above average.”
According to the graph Sando attributed, the Colts’ offensive EPA has steadily fallen week by week. It was about -75 on November 13 (Saturday’s first game at the helm), but has since fallen below the -150 mark.
The defense and special teams, on the other hand, have consistently hovered at or slightly above the league EPA average.
What’s Next for Indy?
Sando wrote that the offense’s troubles are “something to keep in mind when deciding just how far to go with an offseason rebuild.”
It doesn’t require analytics or an EPA graph to notice how quickly things have gone wrong for the Colts this season. Much of the change falls on the decisions owner Jim Irsay has made, but after Week 18, the franchise will attempt to embark on a road to recovery.
The Colts will be in a driver’s seat-type position in the 2023 draft, as they’ve secured a top-six position at worst. Considering Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud and Will Levis are all highly coveted quarterback prospects, the Colts could pick or even trade up higher to secure one of those future starters.
There’s been no solid indication of Saturday’s future with the team, according to a December 26 Sporting News story. And two weeks earlier, Irsay called Saturday “a candidate, but there are a lot of great candidates out there,” according to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk. After the Colts’ embarrassing loss to the Giants in Week 17, Nate Atkins of The Indianapolis Star called Saturday “by all accounts a great man in a difficult position.” He also wrote that it’s “as simple as this right now: He’s friends with the owner.”
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