Getty Interim head coach Jeff Saturday and the Indianapolis Colts face multiple draft order scenarios heading into Week 18.
The NFL will only have two meaningless games between non-playoff teams in Week 18. That speaks to competitiveness of the entire league.
One of those two meaningless matchups, though, will involve the Indianapolis Colts, who will host the Houston Texans on January 8. The only thing of consequence the Colts and Texans will be playing for in Week 18 is draft position.
Houston’s situation is pretty straight forward. With a loss, the Texans will clinch the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Houston also can’t fall beyond the second selection.
For Indianapolis, things are a little more murky even with just one week remaining. The Colts have a few different scenarios that could play out depending on results this weekend.
Colts Could Move Up to as High as No. 3 in 2023 NFL Draft
Heading into Week 18, the Colts hold the No. 5 overall pick with a record of 4-11-1. The tie Indianapolis had against Houston in Week 1 makes things interesting because with another loss in the season finale, the Colts could potentially move into sole possession of the No. 3 pick.
The Denver Broncos and Arizona Cardinals currently possess the No. 3 and 4 overall selections, respectively. The Broncos and Cardinals each have 4-12 records.
Should both teams win in Week 18, another Colts loss guarantees that Indianapolis would finish with a worse record than each of those teams.
The Colts cannot climb any higher in the draft order than third. The Chicago Bears currently have the No. 2 pick with a 3-13 mark. The Texans will enter Week 18 at 2-13-1.
Colts Will Clinch Top 5 Pick With Loss to Texans
Regardless of what else happens around the league, the Colts would guarantee themselves a Top 5 selection in the 2023 NFL Draft with a loss in Week 18.
That might be enough to give the Colts an opportunity to draft who they hope will be their next franchise quarterback.
Of the teams that are ahead of Indianapolis in the draft order going into Week 18, only the Texans need a quarterback. The Bears and Cardinals are tied to the starting signal caller already on their rosters for at least 2023.
The Broncos will send their first-round pick to the Seattle Seahawks, who could be a bit of a wild card in this year’s draft. The Seahawks could target a quarterback in the Top 5, but more than likely, they will re-sign Geno Smith and look to shore up their run defense.
Assuming quarterback is the pick for Colts general manager Chris Ballard, moving up to No. 3 or 4 might not make much of a difference.
The only scenario where it could matter is if another team tries to trade up ahead of Indianapolis to select the quarterback the Colts want. That’s easier for another team to do if Indianapolis has the No. 5 pick instead of No. 3 or 4.
Draft Order Scenarios With Colts Win in Week 18
Indianapolis will be in a similar situation even with a victory on January 8. If the Colts win and the Los Angeles Rams lose, Indianapolis will drop to No. 6 in the draft order.
But that’s the farthest the Colts could fall in the 2023 order.
That’s good news for the Colts because the Rams aren’t likely to be in the market for a quarterback either. Matthew Stafford has spent most of this season hurt, but he’s under contract through the 2026 season.
Draft position won’t be on the minds of players on January 8, but it likely will be for fans.
Of course, there are still four months until the NFL draft and a lot can change between now and then. Given 2022 is a lost season for Indianapolis, a chance to move up a couple more spots in the draft with a loss in Week 18 wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.