Once the Kansas City Chiefs finish their journey of competing for a third straight championship, the team must turn the page and focus on who they will be bringing back for the 2025 season. Among the players that fall into that category is starting right guard Trey Smith, who ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler says is expected to reset the market.
“The Chiefs would love to sign Smith but know that will be tough,” Fowler wrote on November 13. “In fact, there’s an expectation that Smith could become the highest-paid guard in the NFL. The top of the market currently sits at $21.5 million per year, and the Chiefs are at least bracing for life without him because of that price. Smith is a top-10 interior lineman in the league, and the Panthers giving Robert Hunt a $100 million free agency deal back in March had to get Smith’s attention.”
Trey Smith Has Earned a Payday in 2025
Smith potentially resetting the guard market in 2025 is warranted based on what he has accomplished during his four seasons in the NFL.
After having a 97.4 PFF pass blocking efficiency (EFF) — a stat measuring pressure allowed on a per-snap basis with weighting toward sacks allowed — in each of the last two seasons, Smith has a 97.5 EFF through nine games this season and has yet to allow a sack. That EFF ranks 17th among guards that have played at least 80% of their team’s offensive snaps.
As a player who was drafted in the sixth round in the 2021 NFL Draft, Smith has far exceeded the expectations bestowed upon a Day 3 draft pick. That’s great for the Chiefs, who have gotten exceptional play from Smith at a minimal cost. But the value they’ve gotten from Smith will come to an end after this season.
Patrick Mahomes Embracing How to Win Games
Despite being 9-0, the Chiefs have struggled on offense this season. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has had five games in which he’s thrown one or fewer touchdown passes. But he’s also been incredibly clutch when it matters the most, which The Athletic’s Robert Mays highlighted heading into Week 10.
“Per @NextGenStats, Patrick Mahomes has a 58.6 percent success rate on 3rd and 3+ this year,” Mays wrote on November 7. “The league average is 38 percent, and no other full-time starter is above 48 percent. He’s generated 40.1 EPA on those plays. No one else in the league has more than 15.4 right now.”
Speaking to the media on November 13, Mahomes detailed how the 2023 season helped him learn different ways to win football games outside of making big plays downfield.
“Yeah, I think I learned a lot about myself last year just when I felt like I wasn’t playing my best football and we were kind of struggling throughout the season and I kind of learned how to just find ways to win,” Mahomes explained during his press conference. “It kind of helped me grow up, not only as a player, but as a person to show that it’s not about stats, it’s not about how you get it done, it’s just about getting it done. I know how tough it was last year when we were losing those football games, and if we’re finding ways to win this year and I’m not putting up the stats, I feel a lot happier when I go home.”
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Chiefs ‘Bracing for Life Without’ Starter Who Could Reset Market: Report