What’s the ‘1 Mismatch’ the Rams Have Over the 49ers?

Sure, the Los Angeles Rams have taken the losses lately against the San Francisco 49ers. Six straight for anyone keeping track.

The 49ers are red-hot rolling into SoFi Stadium in Inglewood — with the threat of a “red out” covering the “Rams House” and 49er players encouraging more red than blue and gold for Sunday, January 30.

Let’s see: Six consecutive losses, facing a team that’s gone 9-2 since starting 3-5 and one more thing, one recently retired head coach in Sean Payton anointing the visiting ‘Niners as this year’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Rams are at a serious disadvantage, right?

Not exactly. Los Angeles does have their “one mismatch” that could exploit the 49ers after 3:25 p.m. PT on Sunday. And it’s not one, but two Rams hailed as the “mismatch” by one analytics expert and NFL Network personality.

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How 2 Rams Equal 1 Problem for S.F.

The NFL Network’s Cynthia Frelund, who handles NFL data science for the network, unveiled her “Championship Sunday Mismatches” on Wednesday, January 26.

The one mismatch in the Rams’ favor? Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham versus the 49ers secondary.

That’s right — two Ram players who equal one problem for the ‘Niners.

Between the two wideouts, Kupp has statistically done more damage against San Francisco. The triple crown winner (meaning he led the NFL in all three main receiving categories) combined for 18 catches and surpassed 100 yards receiving in both 2021 meetings despite the loss. But his production isn’t the only reason why he’s considered a threat versus the 49ers.

“Against man coverage, Kupp has generated a passer rating when targeted of 150.4 while racking up 715 receiving yards, both tops in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus. Of those 715 yards, 100 came against the Niners (on six targets), who allowed 15 touchdowns with zero picks in man coverage all season (though they did use man coverage at the fifth-lowest rate, 20.3 percent, in the NFL),” Frelund wrote.

But it doesn’t stop there for Kupp. Frelund writes that Kupp has 1,470 yards from the slot receiver position this season. The 49ers have struggled against defending slots per Frelund — ranking 21st overall in covering slot wideouts and allowing an opposing quarterback rating of 102.6.

Tracing back to the Week 18 game, the 49ers threw Dontae Johnson on Kupp with no safety help…which immediately put the 49ers corner at a disadvantage seen below:

Meanwhile, Beckham has flipped a switch during these playoffs.

The veteran wideout, who was added to the roster after his well-publicized falling out with the Cleveland Browns, has caught 10 passes for 123 yards and has one touchdown in his first-ever playoff experience. This Heavy on Rams article helps mention the impact Beckham had against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers through the eyes of one former NFL quarterback turned analyst.

Here’s why Frelund believes OBJ adds to the matchup advantage he and Kupp have: Beckham has been most damaging on short and intermediate throws, scoring five touchdowns there. One clip of his short-to-intermediate prowess is below:

Frelund concludes “And his production has ticked up significantly over the past two games, as has the subsequent attention paid by defenders, meaning he figures to stretch the Niners’ defensive backs (who are seen by my model as the worst group of DBs remaining) even thinner.”

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How do the 49er Corners Match Up With the duo?

Good news for the 49ers: Their secondary hasn’t allowed a 100-yard receiver in the playoffs. And that includes 1,000-yard wideouts like CeeDee Lamb and Davante Adams. A fierce pass rush that’s gotten five sacks in both games adds to the low opposing aerial production.

The bad news: The defensive line, also known as the strength of the 49ers defense, aren’t the ones covering Kupp and Beckham. Their play helps masks the underwhelming play of the 49ers’ corner unit.

The last time this group played the Rams, they allowed 150 total passing yards and three touchdowns when covering the L.A. weapons per Pro Football Focus. The CB rotation also allowed 204 yards their side in the 31-10 home win during Week 10.

The Rams know protecting Matthew Stafford is a must, especially after allowing five sacks in the last meeting. L.A. got an added boost on Friday, January 28 with veteran left tackle Andrew Whitworth being “good to go” for the game by head coach Sean McVay.

As long as the Rams, this time, lower the sack count, L.A.’s “one mismatch” could be two times the trouble for the 49ers.

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