Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy’s Chances to Start Plummet, Insider Says

It would be unwise to bet against the moxie of Minnesota Vikings rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy.

The 21-year-old quarterback out of Michigan emerged as one of the top quarterback prospects in the draft, winning over coaches and scouts with his character and showcasing he can make high-level throws at the combine.

The youngest first-round quarterback prospect selected this year, McCarthy has the most room for growth and showed he’s capable of growing as a passer throughout his undefeated 15-0 run to a national championship last season.

The kid is a winner, but that may not be enough for him to win the starting job in training camp.

Star Tribune beat reporter Ben Goessling gave McCarthy a 10% chance at becoming the Week 1 starter for the Vikings next season due to the steep requirements head coach Kevin O’Connell requires to run his offense.

“I think 10 [percent]… Kevin O’Connell does not want rookies on the field in this spot before they’re ready, because I think he has a pretty strong belief that these guys are going to be better off with time to learn, time to get all of the details, all of the footwork and where are my eyes and how am I stepping into throws and where am I dropping to… I don’t think he’s starting at the beginning of the season,” Goessling said April 30 on KFAN.

Goessling’s insight aligns with an ESPN report that McCarthy will be on an individualized development plan designed to not rush him into action.

“The Vikings will follow an individualized development plan they created for each of the quarterbacks they considered drafting, one that requires McCarthy to hit specific benchmarks and gives coach Kevin O’Connell full authority to make the timing decision,” ESPN’s Kevin Seifert wrote. “The approach is designed to avoid the worst-case scenario — ruining McCarthy’s career by exposing him before he is ready — and is a big reason the Vikings spent $10 million in March to sign veteran Sam Darnold as a bridge starter.”

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Vikings GM Breaks Silence on The Mystery of J.J. McCarthy

After selecting McCarthy 10th overall in the draft last week, Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah shared an anecdote that stuck with him after a Zoom call with McCarthy before the draft.

McCarthy asked Adofo-Mensah the reason he wouldn’t draft him, and Adofo-Mensah responded honestly.

“As we were talking, he said, ‘Is there a reason you wouldn’t draft me?’ And I said, ‘Honestly, from a talent standpoint, no. You’re just a bit of an unknown because you played in an offense that’s pretty run-heavy and different things like that. So there’s some guesswork, but from what we’ve seen, we think you can do anything,” Adofo-Mensah said on April 25. So like I said, we’re just really excited about the skill set. I mean, there’s a level of projection with all these guys coming into this league and different things like that. But you know, once you get around the person, a lot of guesswork goes away.’ ”

The question marks surrounding McCarthy are in part a byproduct of his winning ways. He attempted the fewest passes per game (22) of any first-round quarterback last season and has played two seasons as a starter in college. The Wolverines went 27-1 with McCarthy under center, however, Michigan was loaded with talent that allowed McCarthy to shine and allow the running game to take over.

However, when tasked with playing hero ball, McCarthy showed a glimmer of potential.

“Interestingly, McCarthy threw more passes on third-and-6 or longer than Daniels, Caleb Williams and Bo Nix. His completion percentage on those throws (73.5 percent) was higher than that of the other top six QBs except for Nix,” The Athletic’s Alec Lewis wrote. “Additionally, when you whittle the data down to the first half alone, McCarthy only threw the ball two fewer times than Drake Maye, and his air yards per target (9.7) hovered a smidge beneath Maye (10.2) and above Wiliams and Daniels.”

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J.J. McCarthy Will Push Sam Darnold in Vikings Training Camp

Considering McCarthy’s poise under pressure, training camp and the preseason could be the ultimate proving ground for him to push Darnold for the starting job.

Both quarterbacks are starting from square one in learning O’Connell’s scheme, and McCarthy has shown to have the mental tools to take steps forward throughout his college career.

McCarthy still has questions to answer before the Vikings are ready to unleash him, however, he’s shown to have all the tools to excel in Minnesota.

“He’s big. He’s fast. He’s athletic. He’s strong. He can spin it. He’s smart. He can run. He wins,” former Michigan coach Biff Poggi told The Athletic. “And he does it with complete class. This is a program’s dream. I mean, this kid. … Minnesota just got a franchise player.”

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