QB Sam Darnold Predicted to Ditch Vikings for $160 Million Deal in AFC

The Minnesota Vikings are living more than the dream after a 5-0 start — they’re straight up in a fairy tale, and quarterback Sam Darnold has been every bit the prince charming.

Minnesota maintained its undefeated season with an ugly win over the New York Jets in London on Sunday, October 6. And while Darnold was a far cry from the QB who produced 932 passing yards, a league-leading 11 TDs and just 3 INTs through the first four weeks, he was still good enough to lead the Vikings past a quality defense despite an early injury to starting running back Aaron Jones.

The Vikings are the only undefeated team remaining in the NFC and will be the NFL’s only unbeaten squad if the New Orleans Saints can best the Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) on Monday Night Football.

That said, the Minnesota magic is almost certainly going to wear off eventually in terms of a tally in the loss column. The bigger question is will Darnold stay with the Vikings next season for chapter two of what has been a fairy tale run to this point?

Mike Ginnitti, the managing editor at Spotrac, does not think so. He said as much on the October 3 edition of the “The Spotrac Podcast” when asked where he thinks Darnold will be playing next season and for how much money.

“Four years, $160 million to the Las Vegas Raiders,” Ginnitti said. “It’s cap-adjusted Baker [Mayfield].”

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Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield Have Followed Similar NFL Career Paths

Utilizing Mayfield as a template for Darnold’s next contract makes considerable sense, as the two have had eerily similar career trajectories.

The Cleveland Browns drafted Mayfield No. 1 overall in 2018, while the New York Jets selected Darnold with the No. 3 pick in the first round that year.

Mayield had three losing seasons in four years in Cleveland, plus one winning campaign and a playoff victory, before the Browns traded him to the Carolina Panthers following the 2022 season. The Jets bailed on Darnold one year earlier, but also after three losing campaigns, trading him to the Panthers as well.

Mayfield and Darnold each started six games for Carolina in 2022 before the Panthers ultimately cut both of them loose. Mayfield ended up with the Los Angeles Rams, where he showed flashes and earned himself a $4 million contract from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2023.

Darnold also went out to California and the NFC West Division, catching on as the backup with the San Francisco 49ers last year. He showed flashes as well, which earned him a one-year deal worth $10 million in Minnesota this offseason.

Mayfield tore it up in Tampa in 2023, leading the franchise to an NFC South Division crown and a playoff victory. He inked a three-year contract worth $100 million total last offseason.

Darnold is now 5-0 and an early MVP candidate, even despite a 179-yard performance with 1 INT against the Jets on Sunday, and is on track to get paid next offseason.

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Vikings Face Interesting Call Between Sam Darnold, J.J. McCarthy Next Year

The Vikings have the opportunity to attempt to extend Darnold before he hits unrestricted free agency next March.

Darnold’s personal team will no doubt gauge his value across a league that doesn’t see a lot of talented QBs make it to free agency considering how in demand they are. The Raiders aren’t likely to be the only game in town, which means Minnesota is going to have to pay a significant amount on a multiyear deal to keep the 27-year-old Darnold.

The value of a rookie quarterback, like J.J. McCarthy who the Vikings drafted No. 10 overall last spring, is that he provides financial value at the game’s most expensive position. Minnesota will be able to do a lot across the roster for multiple years if McCarthy can offer them winning football under center, in which case Darnold is an expensive luxury the Vikings can do without.

But there are no guarantees, and the coaching staff and front office could risk alienating the locker room by cutting loose a player in Darnold who has been so successful already and transitioning to a second-year signal caller yet to take a regular-season snap.

If the Vikings can retain Darnold at a more reasonable price than the $40 million annually that Ginnitti suggested, then keeping him and McCarthy could make sense.

The Green Bay Packers followed that path with Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love. Rodgers led the team to the playoffs during Love’s first two years, including the NFC Championship Game during Love’s rookie campaign.

The Packers missed out on the postseason by one victory in 2022, transitioned to Love in 2023 and won another playoff game. They are now likely set at QB for at least the next decade.

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