Randy Mueller, the 2000 NFL Executive of the Year, brings over 30 years of experience in the football business, including stints as the general manager of Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints and Miami Dolphins. With Heavy, Mueller breaks down the NFL from a front office perspective. You can follow Randy on Twitter @RandyMueller_
Have the Patriots Gone From First to Worst?
I couldn’t help but think while watching the New England Patriots get totally outclassed by the Buffalo Bills in Week 13: Are the Patriots the worst team in the AFC East currently?
My answer was, they are clearly the least talented. They have a QB who is, at best, the third-best and if we are talking just talent, probably fourth-best in the division. They have very little team speed and almost none on offense, which makes people defend them differently. The one big play made by the Pats on offense was made by rookie DB Marcus Jones, who caught a bubble screen and ran 48 yards for a score. Their offensive line looks overwhelmed at times and their scheme, well, that’s a whole other notebook.
Marcus Jones is a defensive back.
His first offensive snap of the season was a 48-yard receiving touchdown 😱
(via @Patriots)
I know they have the GOAT in Bill Bellichick, I get that part. But you can only scheme so much. I also realize they are 6-6 through 12 games and are not out of the playoff chase by any means. I just struggle watching the talent, or the lack thereof on this team.
I can’t believe they are going to be happy just going with the “we need to play and execute better” philosophy to re-establish themselves at the top of the heap in the AFC. I would be depressed, as a Pats fan, every time I watch Buffalo, Miami, or at times, even the Jets. Belichick the GM needs to find some upgrades.
The Fate of the 49ers Is Purdy Uncertain
With the season-ending foot injury to starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 13 against the Miami Dolphins, doubt has been cast on the stretch run of the NFC West division leaders. Obviously, the key to survival is now in the hands of a new and inexperienced QB Brock Purdy, the very last pick in the 2022 NFL draft.
I saw both good and bad in his performance while leading the San Francisco 49ers to a win over Miami. Purdy flashed moments. He showed the stage was not too big for him by playing with poise, making good decisions for the most part, and showing the wherewithal to run and administrate an NFL offense in a regular season game. He flashed the ability to anticipate, and athleticism to get away from pressure and he showed confidence to attempt throws into tight windows.
All this, while getting little or no reps in the practice leading up to the game. But, the biggest positive to me is that his intangibles and leadership stood out, as was evidenced by the post-game comments of many, which lead one to believe that he has the confidence and respect of the locker room and front office going forward. So much so, that the 49ers did not put in a claim for Baker Mayfield this week, who many thought would be a good fit as a stop-gap replacement for Garoppolo.
The downside comes, in my opinion, from the inconsistent physical skills that made him a late-round pick in the first place. Purdy missed several throws of an easy nature, his accuracy was shaky at best and he showed very ordinary velocity on his fastball.
I think it’s definitely something that Kyle Shanahan can work with, probably enough to still win the division with, but a deep playoff run will be determined by how much improvement Purdy can make on a week-to-week scale over the coming six weeks.
What Is Lamar Jackson’s Worth?
At 8-4 and still tied for the lead in their division, the Baltimore Ravens future got a little murkier when starting QB Lamar Jackson left Week 13 with a PCL injury that usually takes anywhere from 1-3 weeks to heal.
With the Cincinnati Bengals catching fire and having not lost since Halloween, the Ravens have very little margin for error. Somebody has to make the playoffs in a watered-down AFC, so I still see the Ravens sneaking in, but the bigger question for the GM in me is, what has this season done to the long-term contract negotiations of Jackson?
My first reaction is: Nothing.
I think the Ravens front office knows what they have in Jackson. They know what they are willing to pay and have made both clear to Jackson and his representation, when last in the negotiating window. To me, they made their final offer. Remember when both sides broke off talks before the regular season opener, it was the Ravens who almost immediately put out a press release saying how much they loved Jackson and how disappointed they were that an agreement couldn’t be reached, but also that they were committed to making Jackson their long-term answer at QB. To me, the release gave closure to that negotiation and made it clear that the ship had sailed.
Fast forward 13 weeks to a time and place where the New York Yankees did an about-face and structured a new contract for outfielder Aaron Judge that reflected a 70% raise from their last offer in the spring. That is the craziest change in philosophical and financial thinking that I have ever seen in professional sports. Teams just don’t do that. They usually make their best offer and stick with it, like the Ravens did.
Sure, you might tweak some numbers to act as a life preserver in bringing home a final agreed-upon deal, but nothing as crazy as what the Yankees did. Mercurial changes in numbers sets club policy that make it really hard to tell the next guy, “We are done negotiating.” Precedent-setting decisions are something the Ravens and their negotiators have always prided themselves on.
I think you will see Jackson playing on a short-term deal, maybe even a franchise tag, as the team philosophically decides whether this style of offense is their long-term answer.
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Former NFL GM Gets Honest About Patriots’ Outlook: ‘I Just Struggle’