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What Needs to Happen for the Patriots to Make the Playoffs

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Getty Bill Belichick

The New England Patriots took a devastating 27-20 loss on Sunday to the Houston Texans. The defeat drops them to 4-6 and the playoff hopes have dimmed. The team isn’t mathematically eliminated, but it’s going to be tough. Here’s what they need to do if they’re going to have a prayer of playing in the postseason.

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The Easiest, But Most Difficult Route is to Win Out

Quite obviously, the Patriots have six games remaining this season. If they win them all, they finish at 10-6, which is usually good enough to make the postseason in any year, but almost certainly figures to be sufficient in a season where the NFL has added a seventh playoff spot, and there is talk an eighth could be included.

American Football Conference
Standings – Detailed View
AFC EAST W L T  PCT PF PA Net Pts Home Road Div Pct Conf Pct Non-Conf Strk Last 5
Buffalo Bills
 7 3 0 0.700 272 265 7 4 – 1 – 0 3 – 2 – 0 4 – 0 – 0 1.000 5 – 2 – 0 0.714 2 – 1 – 0 1L 3 – 2 – 0
Miami Dolphins
 6 4 0 0.600 264 202 62 3 – 2 – 0 3 – 2 – 0 1 – 2 – 0 0.333 3 – 3 – 0 0.500 3 – 1 – 0 1L 4 – 1 – 0
New England Patriots
 4 6 0 0.400 209 238 -29 3 – 2 – 0 1 – 4 – 0 2 – 1 – 0 0.667 4 – 4 – 0 0.500 0 – 2 – 0 1L 2 – 3 – 0
New York Jets
 0 10 0 0.000 149 302 -153 0 – 5 – 0 0 – 5 – 0 0 – 4 – 0 0.000 0 – 8 – 0 0.000 0 – 2 – 0 10L 0 – 5 – 0
Standings – Detailed View
AFC SOUTH W L T  PCT PF PA Net Pts Home Road Div Pct Conf Pct Non-Conf Strk Last 5
Indianapolis Colts
 7 3 0 0.700 276 208 68 4 – 1 – 0 3 – 2 – 0 1 – 1 – 0 0.500 3 – 3 – 0 0.500 4 – 0 – 0 2W 4 – 1 – 0
Tennessee Titans
 7 3 0 0.700 279 259 20 4 – 2 – 0 3 – 1 – 0 2 – 1 – 0 0.667 5 – 3 – 0 0.625 2 – 0 – 0 1W 2 – 3 – 0
Houston Texans
 3 7 0 0.300 227 272 -45 2 – 3 – 0 1 – 4 – 0 2 – 1 – 0 0.667 3 – 5 – 0 0.375 0 – 2 – 0 1W 2 – 3 – 0
Jacksonville Jaguars
 1 9 0 0.100 202 298 -96 1 – 4 – 0 0 – 5 – 0 1 – 3 – 0 0.250 1 – 7 – 0 0.125 0 – 2 – 0 9L 0 – 5 – 0
Standings – Detailed View
AFC NORTH W L T  PCT PF PA Net Pts Home Road Div Pct Conf Pct Non-Conf Strk Last 5
Pittsburgh Steelers
 10 0 0 1.000 298 174 124 5 – 0 – 0 5 – 0 – 0 3 – 0 – 0 1.000 7 – 0 – 0 1.000 3 – 0 – 0 10W 5 – 0 – 0
Cleveland Browns
 7 3 0 0.700 238 261 -23 5 – 1 – 0 2 – 2 – 0 2 – 2 – 0 0.500 4 – 3 – 0 0.571 3 – 0 – 0 2W 3 – 2 – 0
Baltimore Ravens
 6 4 0 0.600 268 195 73 2 – 3 – 0 4 – 1 – 0 2 – 1 – 0 0.667 4 – 4 – 0 0.500 2 – 0 – 0 2L 2 – 3 – 0
Cincinnati Bengals
 2 7 1 0.250 213 270 -57 2 – 2 – 0 0 – 5 – 1 0 – 4 – 0 0.000 2 – 6 – 0 0.250 0 – 1 – 1 2L 1 – 4 – 0
Standings – Detailed View
AFC WEST W L T  PCT PF PA Net Pts Home Road Div Pct Conf Pct Non-Conf Strk Last 5
Kansas City Chiefs
 9 1 0 0.900 321 214 107 4 – 1 – 0 5 – 0 – 0 3 – 1 – 0 0.750 8 – 1 – 0 0.889 1 – 0 – 0 5W 5 – 0 – 0
Las Vegas Raiders
 6 4 0 0.600 286 276 10 2 – 3 – 0 4 – 1 – 0 3 – 1 – 0 0.750 4 – 3 – 0 0.571 2 – 1 – 0 1L 3 – 2 – 0
Denver Broncos
 4 6 0 0.400 206 267 -61 2 – 3 – 0 2 – 3 – 0 1 – 2 – 0 0.333 4 – 4 – 0 0.500 0 – 2 – 0 1W 2 – 3 – 0
Los Angeles Chargers
 3 7 0 0.300 260 273 -13 2 – 3 – 0 1 – 4 – 0 0 – 3 – 0 0.000 3 – 4 – 0 0.429 0 – 3 – 0 1W 2 – 3 – 0

As it stands, the Patriots are two games out of the seventh playoff spot with the Las Vegas Raiders, a team the Patriots beat head-to-head, holding down that position. The Patriots have the Arizona Cardinals, their second meetings with the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, and New York Jets, and road games against the Los Angeles Chargers and Los Angeles Rams on their schedule. Quite honestly, I can see the Patriots winning or losing every one of those games.

The Cardinals haven’t looked like world-beaters, but they do have in Kyler Murray, one of the elite dual-threat quarterbacks that seem to give New England fits. Deshaun Watson used his entire toolbox on Sunday to slice and dice the Patriots’ defense into shreds en route to the victory.

The Patriots were on the cusp of beating the Bills on the road earlier in the season before a Cam Newton fumble killed the comeback.

They’ve beaten the Dolphins this season, but that squad is seemingly much improved since the Week 1 meeting. The Patriots beat the win-less Jets two weeks ago in the Big Apple but needed a last-second field goal to get it done. Perhaps they will have an easier go of it at home. Neither the Chargers nor the Rams represent insurmountable opposition, but let’s be real, Aaron Donald and co. are 6-3 and will be heavy favorites over the Patriots–especially at home.

The road to a perfect finish is not without major difficulty.

A 5-1 Finish Might Get it Done

With an extra playoff spot, there is a chance that a 9-7 record can get it done. If the Patriots can manage to take all but, say the road contest against the Rams, which looks as if it might be the most difficult game left–at least on paper–they could still find a way into the postseason.

Even that seems more on the unlikely side.

They’ll Need Help From Others

Without question, the Patriots cannot afford to have other teams in their division, or even in the AFC go on surprisingly flawless runs through the remainder of the regular season. If a team like the Baltimore Ravens or Dolphins gets hot and finishes 5-1 the rest of the way, their excellence and the headstart in the win-loss record could be the factors that stamp out a late-season surge from the Patriots.

The Most Damning Aspect of the Patriots’ Record

The toughest aspect of the Patriots’ first 10 games is the number of games they have lost within the conference. Four of the six losses have come to AFC teams (Bills, Chiefs, Texans, and Broncos). When it comes to tiebreakers, which the Patriots’ playoff hopes could be subject to, division and conference records rank second and fourth respectively in the tiebreaking procedures.

Keep that in mind moving forward as Patriots fans keep their fingers crossed for the next 45 days.

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The Patriots took a 27-20 loss on Sunday to the Texans. They're now 4-6. Here's what they need to do if they're going to have a chance to make the playoffs.