Brian Daboll has defied expectations by leading the New York Giants to nine wins and a spot in the playoffs for the first time since 2016. Yet, of all Daboll’s accomplishments, the best might be the way he’s “protected” Daniel Jones.
The quarterback was floundering before this season, but pending free agent Jones may have played his way into a new contract. His numbers are impressive, but not everybody is convinced Jones has finally made the grade.
Instead, Seth Galina of Pro Football Focus believes Jones’ improved performances owe more to the schemes of head coach Daboll and offensive coordinator Mike Kafka. Their system has hidden Jones’ weaknesses, but Galina still believes No. 8 is only a “slightly above-average” starter, and that he and the Giants are “likely regression candidates” for next season.
Daboll and Kafka Have Hidden Obvious Weaknesses
Making Jones look good was a challenge after the player drafted sixth overall in 2019 struggled through three seasons amid injuries and turnovers. The solution involved playing to Jones’ natural strengths.
Daboll and Kafka “protected Jones with a league-leading number of bootlegs, the fourth-most quarterback runs and a seventh-ranked running game in expected points added per play this season,” per Galina.
The run-first approach brought out the best in Jones. He’s among the most prolific rushing QBs in the NFL, according to Bobby Skinner of Talkin’ Giants:
Another big rushing day for Daniel Jones with 91 yards
•5th in QB rush yards with 708 (56 yards behind 2nd)
•3rd in QB rushing TD with 7
Last 7 games:
Saquon Barkley 381 rushing yards
Daniel Jones 321 rushing yards
The similarity in rushing production between Jones and Saquon Barkley is key. Barkley is the focal point for most defenses facing the Giants, so Daboll and Kafka have been able to use fakes to the bluechip running back to spring Jones on bootleg runs.
That same play-action game has also helped Jones become a more efficient passer. His completion percentage is up, while the former turnover machine has cut down on the mistakes, particularly interceptions, per Giants.com’s Matt Citak:
In addition to establishing new career-highs in passing yards (3,205) & passer rating (92.5), Daniel Jones is on the verge of setting numerous Giants single-season QB records:
67.2 completion %
1.06 interception % (No. 1 in the NFL)
708 rushing yards
7 rushing TDs
All of those numbers are a credit to Jones and his coaches, but there’s something to Galina’s argument the Giants have helped Jones look better than expected. A cursory look at a few passing stats shows the Giants have played safe, small ball through the air.
Jones’ average of 6.8 yards per attempt is among the bottom half of the league, while his 27 completions for 20 yards or more is the lowest in football. Short passing and a heavy dose of running is the classic formula for protecting any quarterback, and it’s worked for Jones.
The Giants have benefited from what Galina dubbed “the perfect storm for Daniel Jones to look like a good quarterback without necessarily being one,” but it’s still too soon to predict regression for next season.
‘Regression’ Talk is Premature
Galina thinks regression is inevitable for the Giants because “Jones is at best a slightly above-average quarterback and could look effective in a good scheme (he has that this year) and with a good supporting group of pass catchers (he does not have that this year), but he will probably never be a player who can elevate his teammates.”
It’s too soon to make this claim when the futures of Jones and Barkley are far from assured. Keeping Barkley is the more pressing matter, despite how tough it is to find an even competent signal-caller at the pro level.
Fortunately, general manager Joe Schoen is projected by Spotrac.com to have $59,565,438 worth of space under this year’s salary cap. It’s enough room to retain Jones and Barkley, with the former possibly earning a two to three-year deal paying $20 million annually, while Barkley could be franchise tagged at a possible cost of $10,100,000, according to Over The Cap.
Those figures are important because they’d leave the Giants with enough cash and flexibility to improve Jones’ options at wide receiver. Galina acknowledged Jones doesn’t have enough talent among his pass-catchers, but it goes beyond that.
He’s seen Sterling Shepard and rookie Wan’Dale Robinson suffered season-ending torn ACLs, while Kenny Golladay has continued to be missing in action. Not only has the cast around Jones been suspect, it’s changed with alarming frequency.
It’s a credit to Jones he’s rolled with the changes and still performed well. He’s done so by progressing in intangibles like blitz pickup, calmness in the pocket and field vision, qualities NFL Network’s Brian Baldinger highlighted from Week 17’s 38-10 postseason-clinching win over the Indianapolis Colts:
.@Giants @Daniel_Jones10 to #RichieJames for a TD! The Giants might be the most improved offense in the NFL. Coaching Matters. Who doesn’t love watching these #GMen Ball? #BaldysBreakdowns
Jones and receivers like Richie James and Isaiah Hodgins have proved doubters wrong and been reliable this season. While it’s easy to point out Jones’ faults, his performances for Daboll have created enough optimism to be excited about what another year in this system might yield for the Giants and their QB1.
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Giants Have ‘Protected’ a ‘Slightly Above-Average’ Starter