Jets-Raiders Trade Pitch Nets Huge Draft Haul, Exploits QB Race

New York Jets, Las Vegas Raiders

Getty New York Jets running back Breece Hall trying to make a play during a game against the Las Vegas Raiders.

The New York Jets are motivated to trade down in the first round of the 2024 NFL draft.

Joe Tansey of Bleacher Report made that dream a reality in a “hypothetical” proposed deal.

New York Jets receive: a 2024 first-rounder (No. 13 overall), a 2024 second-rounder (No. 44 overall), and a 2024 fifth-round draft choice (No. 148 overall)

Las Vegas Raiders receive: a 2024 first-rounder (No. 10 overall)

“The Las Vegas Raiders are the ideal trade partner for the Jets to drop back from No. 10. Las Vegas is the only team between itself, Denver, and Minnesota with a second-round pick,” Tansey explained in an article posted on Monday, April 1. “A three-pick jump to land a quarterback would come with a larger price tag, one the Jets can benefit from to add draft capital.”

The Jets Could Be the Main Beneficiary of a QB Arms Race

According to the NFL draft value chart, this proposed scenario would be a gross overpay. The Jets’ No. 10 overall pick is only worth 1,300 points. While the Raiders’ combination of selections is worth a grand total of 1,642.3 points.

Las Vegas would be overpaying at the approximate value of a late second-rounder (342.3 points).

However, that is the cost of doing business. The teams that are in front of the Raiders, Denver and Minnesota, are also both in the quarterback market. When you have multiple teams bidding for the same thing, the cost of business goes up exponentially.

Rich Cimini of ESPN said the Jets receiving this kind of package is “contingent on the availability of a top quarterback” at pick No. 10.

“Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, or J.J. McCarthy. [The] problem is, it’s unlikely that one of them will slip to 10. The Jets need Bo Nix to get so hot that a team wants to jump the crowd for him. A team also may covet the Jets’ pick as part of a leapfrog plan to a higher spot,” Cimini explained.

Will the Jets Be Able to Pull off a Trade Down?

In theory, trading down sounds great on paper. You like so many players on the board that you move down a handful of slots, pick up some extra capital, and still get one of the players you coveted.

However, the key ingredient to this recipe is that it takes two to tango. The Jets can want to trade down all they like, but they need a partner who is interested in moving up the board.

Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic said on “The Can’t-Wait Podcast” that, “I’m a little more skeptical that they [the Jets] will have really meaningful trade-back options.”

If four quarterbacks go ahead of the Jets selection, it’s a fair question to ask who would teams be moving up for?

If there isn’t a large trade-up demand, that would lower the price of any potential move down. Instead of potentially receiving three picks for one, the Jets could receive a far less substantial return on its investment.

The draft value chart says the Jets have to move into the No. 17 to No. 18 range in the first round to receive a second-rounder.

Cimini said in an ideal world, New York would like to recoup a 2024 second-round selection after trading it away last offseason for Aaron Rodgers.

Read More