X-Factor on NFL Schedule Inspires Hope for Jets in 2021

The 2021 NFL schedule has been out for a few weeks so there’s been plenty of time for things to marinate.

Pundits can bring up the strength of schedule (which tallies up the wins and losses from a previous year) or perhaps potential weather games late in the year, and maybe how many back-to-back road games you have on the docket, but none of those things are the most important when breaking things down.

There is more than one way to skin a cat, but there’s only one true way to evaluate the difficulty of a schedule: who are the quarterbacks you play?

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Biggest X-Factor on the 2021 NFL Schedule

When you take a gander at those quarterbacks on the slate, they don’t inspire much fear. We’ve broken down every quarterback the Jets will face next season into tiers (stats provided by ESPN):

Tier one (elite)

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Ninth highest QBR this past season (72.5)

Brady is 43 years old and will be 44 by the start of the 2021 season, but he’s also the starting quarterback for the defending Super Bowl champions. Despite his age, Brady has continued to prove the doubters wrong.

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (twice)

• Third highest-rated passer this past season (81.7)

It can’t be denied, Allen was a borderline MVP candidate throughout the 2020 season. All the jokes have been put aside, he’s one of the brightest young quarterbacks in the game heading into 2021.

Tier two (above average)

Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans

• Fourth highest QBR rating in 2020 (78.3)

Perhaps this ranking will be viewed as disrespectful, but it isn’t intended to be so. Tannehill has put together back-to-back remarkable seasons for the Titans and has proven to be an above-average passer.

Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons

• 16th in QBR (67)

Ryan is a former league MVP and despite his increasing age (36) still has plenty of gas left in the tank. The Falcons offense is overflowing with elite weapons which doesn’t hurt.

Tier three (average)

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

• The No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft will be heading into his rookie campaign.

It’s hard to accurately put a rookie quarterback into any tier before they even take an NFL snap. With that being said, expectations are through the roof for the former Clemson Tigers star. The average ranking seems like an appropriate place until proven otherwise.

Tier four (below average)

Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers

• 33rd ranked quarterback in QBR (40.1)

There are only 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL, Darnold ranked 33 last year in QBR. There’s no other way to put it, Darnold has been terrible in the big leagues. We’ll see if that was because of the talent and coaching or because of his lackluster ability to read defenses in 2021.

Cam Newton or Mac Jones, New England Patriots (twice)

• 30th ranked passer in QBR (47)

Whether it’s the rookie out of Alabama or Newton, both are thrown in the below-average category. Newton was terrible this past season and we’ll see if he can recapture his former MVP form, but that seems unlikely.

Teddy Bridgewater or Drew Lock, Denver Broncos

• Lock was the 29th rated quarterback in QBR (48.8) and Bridgewater was 17th (64.2)

Lock was super inconsistent and Bridgewater was underwhelming during his tenure with the Panthers. While the Broncos offense is overflowing with talent, the same can’t be said at quarterback.

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

• 24th in QBR (56.2)

Burrow is incredibly talented, a former No. 1 pick, but he’s a guy that has struggled to stay healthy. Despite the Bengals’ offensive line woes, they didn’t do the former LSU star many favors this offseason improving that unit.

Carson Wentz, Indianapolis Colts

• 28th rated in QBR (49.6)

Wentz was terrible with the Philadelphia Eagles and now an old face finds himself in a new place. We’ll see if Frank Reich can recapture the magic that led the Eagles to the Super Bowl.

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (twice)

• 26th rated in QBR (52.5)

It felt like we were watching a baseball season last year with the Dolphins. Tua started a handful of games and Ryan Fitzpatrick was brought in as a closer. Strange to say the least. With no security blanket this time around, let’s see how Tagovailoa performs.

Davis Mills or Tyrod Taylor or Deshaun Watson (maybe), Houston Texans

• Watson was the 12th rated quarterback in QBR (70.5)

Mills is a rookie. Taylor is a journeyman veteran that has been around the block. When healthy and playing Watson is a tier-one elite quarterback no question. Although with everything that is going on off the field, it’s unclear if or when he’ll make an appearance during the 2021 season.

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

• Hurts only started in four games this past season but was unimpressive:
  • 52 percent completion percentage, six-to-four touchdown-to-interception ratio, and a 41 QBR.

Unproven would be the apt word to describe Hurts heading into 2021. Although after this season is complete we should know one way or another whether the former Oklahoma star is the real deal.

Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints

• Neither player saw significant enough playing time to get an accurate reading on their QBR after Drew Brees completed his final NFL season in 2020.

Drew Brees is a future Pro Football Hall of Famer and his NFL career is over. Who will take the mantle in New Orleans? Taysom Hill a versatile swiss army knife or a former No. 1 pick in Jameis Winston, a totally to be determined situation.

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An Opportunity Has Presented Itself

After evaluating the entire landscape this is a golden opportunity for the Jets to make some noise this season.

Outside of Josh Allen, Tom Brady, and maybe Tannehill, none of these quarterbacks scare you. Gang Green hasn’t been to the playoffs since 2010 and with this slate of quarterbacks, there’s a strong chance to turn that around in 2021.

We’d be naive to ignore the green and white’s own quarterback situation that features an unproven rookie in Zach Wilson formerly of BYU. Ultimately how good he is and becomes will be the main thing that moves the needle as it pertains to the postseason.

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