Getty Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin (left) & Bills head coach Sean McDermott (right).
The AFC East division champion Buffalo Bills (11-6) play host to the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) in an AFC Wild Card game on January 14.
Both the Bills and Steelers qualified for the postseason during a wild Week 18, but Buffalo enters the playoffs riding the high of a five-game winning streak to close out the regular season.
Meanwhile, Mike Tomlin still has never had a losing season in his career after guiding Pittsburgh back to the playoffs for the first time since the 2021 campaign.
Heavy Sports’ projections model, powered by our partners at Quarter 4, gives the Bills a 75% win probability over Pittsburgh, to advance to the AFC Divisional round.
Here are five AI-powered predictions we have forecasted using the model:
1. Steelers Run Defense Will Stymie James Cook
James Cook has been a driving force of the Bills’ resurgence over the second half of the season. During Buffalo’s five-game winning streak, Cook rushed for 391 yards with a touchdown, while averaging 4.65 yards per carry.
Even with Defensive Player of the Year front-runner T.J. Watt sidelined against the Bills, our model expects Pittsburgh’s run defense to slam the door on Cook and the Bills’ ground game.
James Cook Projections: 12 rushing attempts for 55.6 yards, 1.9 receptions for 26.6 yards, including 17.7 yards after the catch.
The Bills might need to lean on the running game, with the weather forecast calling for show showers and gusty winds that could surpass 30 miles per hour in Orchard Park.
2. Mason Rudolph Will Outplay Josh Allen
Josh Allen has played like an MVP-caliber quarterback down the stretch, but the conditions combined with Pittsburgh’s 17th-ranked passing defense may limit the explosive plays that have become Buffalo’s bread and butter.
Meanwhile, our model expects Mason Rudolph to outperform what he’s shown on film through his four appearances this season.
Josh Allen projections: 16.6 completions, 200.1 passing yards, 0.8 touchdowns, 1.3 sacks
Mason Rudolph projections: 20.2 completions, 224.9 passing yards, 1.2 touchdowns, 3.2 times sacks
Not only does the Heavy Sports model project Rudolph to pass for more yards and more touchdowns than Allen, but it believes that Allen will fail to meet his season average in any of the statistical categories listed above.
3. Patrick Peterson Will Hold Stefon Diggs Under Wraps
If the Steelers travel veteran cornerback Patrick Person against Bills star wide receiver Stefon Diggs, it could prove one of the most fascinating individual matchups in Sunday’s contest.
Diggs finished the 2023 campaign, once again as one of the most dynamic receivers in the sport, catching 107 of his 159 targets for 1,183 yards with 8 touchdowns. According to Pro Football Focus, Allen had a 95.5 passer rating when looking in Diggs’ direction.
The Heavy Sports model projects Peterson to win that matchup.
Stefon Diggs projections: 4.6 receptions, 48.1 yards, 21.4 longest reception
Patrick Peterson projections: 2.5 total tackles, 2.3 solo tackles, 0.5 pass breakups
Peterson has been exactly what the Steelers hoped, as a veteran presence in a young cornerback room and mentor to the likes of second-round rookie Joey Porter Jr.
With the playoffs looming, Peterson finished the 2023 season holding opposing quarterbacks to a meager 80.4 passer rating and receivers just 12.4 yards per reception when he was targeted, according to Pro Football Focus.
4. Bills Safety Jordan Poyer Will Wreak Havoc
Against the Miami Dolphins in Week 18, Jordan Poyer was seemingly always around the football.
Poyer finished Week 18 with six total tackles, and our model expects another big game from the Bills Safety against the Steelers.
Jordan Poyer Projections: 5.3 total tackles, 4.2 solo tackles, .8 pass breakups.
The 32-year-old Poyer has taken on an expanded role on the Bills’ defense after a myriad of injuries hit the secondary in 2023.
Poyer finished the regular season with 101 total tackles and 1.0 sack. He could play a key role in Buffalo’s chances of advancing.
5. The Game Will Be Decided by a Touchdown, Less Than the Vegas Consensus
This game will be one of the most closely watched of NFL Wild Card weekend because both teams are riding significant momentum into the playoffs.
Just as the Bills have been lifted by Josh Allen’s strong closing stretch, Pittsburgh rediscovered its identity, especially on defense, while getting adequate and consistent quarterback play from Rudolph.
Still, our model installs the Bills as a 7-point favorite, which is a field goal closer than the Las Vegas sportsbooks in our database.
The Heavy Sports projections also like the over, when it comes to the consensus total, setting the number at 39.5 with none of the major oddsmakers listing the total any higher than 36.5 points.
Here’s a look at how the models are comparing for Sunday: