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It has been an offseason of whiplash among the 49ers faithful, as the disheartening loss to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl gave way to an offseason salary cap crunch that has left the team still uncertain about the future of wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, even after multiple waves of trade rumors—rumors that are ongoing, in fact.
But all along, insiders around the team and experts across the NFL have had the smart money on Aiyuk returning to the 49ers and the team putting together one final push to win a Super Bowl before the really salary-sap trouble hits the fan next year. That will mean a deal somehow getting worked out for Aiyuk.
It will also mean that what we’re going to see from the 49ers in the 2024 season will be the grand finale of this team as we know it. That’s the likely outcome here. But if something does get done with Aiyuk in the coming days, it seems, it will mean the 49ers star most likely to depart in a reconfigured 2025 roster is not Aiyuk but, rather, fellow receiver Deebo Samuel.
49ers Likely to Keep Brandon Aiyuk
There is some sense in that. Samuel’s combination of ability as a receiver and a running back make him a key weapon in the offensive attack coach Kyle Shanahan has cooked up for the 49ers, but it also has meant more mileage on his body—and he will be 29 in January. Aiyuk is just 26.
At the contract-expert site Spotrac, NFL guru Mike Ginnitti has been saying all season that the most likely outcome is that Aiyuk stays put.
“I still think this ends up being a 49ers reunion, to some degree.” Ginnitti said recently on “The Spotrac Podcast.” “I will say, I did not think an extension was possible here because I did think the plan was to move on from Aiyuk and let Ricky Pearsall come up and grow into the system as his replacement.”
That jibes with what many other experts have been saying, too. Earlier this week ESPN’s Adam Schefter was on the “Pat McAfee Show” and noted that despite several hot trade rumors around Aiyuk, his 49ers return remains the most likely outcome.
“I think we’re at the point now where we’re going to start to get a push here to see how this winds up, how it’s resolved. And I think the 49ers would like to keep him, want to keep him. I still think that’s the more likely scenario,” Schefter said.
Deebo Samuel ‘Is a Cut Candidate in 2025’
But the options for Aiyuk are limited to playing on his current $14.1 million fifth-year option, which he is refusing to do; signing a juiced-up one-year contract for 2024 that allows him to hit the market in 2025, which would be pointless for the 49ers to do; or buckling down and finding a way to make a longer-term extension with the 49ers work.
The last option is the best for both sides. But it will mean a farewell to Samuel.
“I’ll put this out there,” Ginnitti said, “(2025 NFL free agents) are the guys you’re looking at, these are the guys who are gonna be next up in terms of a big contract, whether it is with their current team or another team—and certainly, Aiyuk is on that list along with a couple of other big wide receivers, but Deebo Samuel is a cut candidate in terms of 2025.”
Samuel is coming off a year in which he notched 1,117 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns. His value is obvious. But in the final year of a three-year, $72 million deal in 2025, he would not be difficult to axe.
“It’s just where the contract is,” Ginnitti said. “I realize he is a 1-of-1 in terms gidgets and gadgets and Kyle Shanahan’s offense, but I just have a feeling that the plan right now might be, keep Aiyuk and cut Deebo Samuel in 2024. In which case, I got no problem with them giving Brandon Aiyuk three years, four years full guaranteed, whatever it’s gonna be.
“Maybe, internally, that is what they are landing on. They are not looking to get rid of Aiyuk, they are looking to keep him at the right price. And this is going to be a one-and-done for Deebo Samuel.”
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