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The Russell Wilson trade probably feels a bit like the gift that keeps on giving to Seattle Seahawks fans.
That could become more of a reality if the Seahawks follow through on a suggestion from Bleacher Report’s Kristopher Knox.
The NFL writer urged on December 3 that the Seahawks should explore trading out of the top five in the 2023 NFL draft. Seattle holds that selection because of the Wilson trade with the Denver Broncos.
Seattle could offer the top three selection to a team that’s looking to move up to draft a quarterback.
“There are a couple of teams that could be candidates to flip early first-round selections for massive trade hauls,” Knox wrote. “The Bears would own the No. 2 pick if the season ended today, and they appear to have a rising quarterback in Justin Fields.
“The Seahawks would hold the fourth pick—from Denver in the Wilson trade—and they could look to re-sign surprising breakout Geno Smith instead of drafting a quarterback.”
According to Tankathon.com, the Seahawks own the No. 3 overall pick, but Knox’s point remains the same. If the Broncos keep on losing, Seattle’s first first-round selection next spring will be very valuable on the trade market.
Recent History Suggests Draft Haul in Return for Top 5 Pick
Knox hinted that the top two teams to be trade up candidates in the first round next spring are the Atlanta Falcons and Indianapolis Colts. Entering Week 13, the Colts and Falcons hold the No. 14 and 15 picks, respectively.
Obviously, that can change before the end of the season. But if those teams remain in the middle of the first round and prove to be interested in trading up for a top 5 pick, the Seahawks could be looking at quite the draft haul.
Two years ago, the San Francisco 49ers moved up from No. 12 to 3 for the opportunity to select quarterback Trey Lance. To acquire that third pick, the 49ers had to give up three first-round choices (counting No. 12) and a third-round selection.
The Wilson trade already gave Seattle an additional three first-rounders. So if the Seahawks trade down in the first round with Denver’s 2023 first-round pick, Wilson and the deal with the Broncos in 2022 could yield a total of five first-round selections over the course of four draft classes.
Clearly, that’s an incredible haul that could set up Seattle for years.
Geno Smith to Determine What Seattle Does at No. 3
Quarterback Geno Smith could be the biggest deciding factor in whether or not the Seahawks explore trading the Broncos’ 2023 first-round pick.
If Denver continues to struggle down the stretch, Seattle may have the opportunity to draft one of the top quarterbacks in the upcoming class — Alabama’s Bryce Young or Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud — for its own roster.
Smith has experienced an incredible breakout season. He leads the NFL with a 72.8% completion percentage. He’s also averaging a career-high 7.9 yards per attempt with 19 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions.
But Smith is a free agent at the end of the season. Given that he’s a 32-year-old signal caller who is just beginning to prove to be an NFL starter, his contract negotiations could prove to be complicated.
ESPN’s Brady Henderson argued while a guest on Brock and Salk on Seattle Sports 710AM on November 18 that if the Seahawks don’t offer Smith a contract he likes, he could threaten to play on the franchise tag (assuming Seattle places the tag on Smith). If Smith played on the franchise tag two years in a row, Henderson estimated that he’d make about $34.5 million per season.
But The Athletic’s Jeff Howe wasn’t as confident that Smith would have all the leverage in contract negotiations.
“Smith is having the best season of his 10-year career, but he might be more valuable to the Seahawks than anyone else, because he only started five games from 2015-21,” Howe wrote on November 30. “It makes the most sense for Smith to stay in Seattle.”
It’ll be interesting to see what the Seahawks consider doing. Using Denver’s first-rounder to land another draft haul is tempting, but Seattle could think twice about doing that if Smith doesn’t end the season strongly or if the organization falls in love with a quarterback from the 2023 class.
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