Bucs a Perfect Trade Spot for $32 Million 3-Time Pro Bowl QB, Says Analyst

Getty Bruce Arians and Tom Brady converse during a 2021 game.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have a decision to make at quarterback if Tom Brady does not return in 2023. Brady is a free agent this offseason as rumors abound about potential destinations for the legendary quarterback as well as retirement possibly looming.

Either option would put the Bucs in the market for a new starting quarterback, but Brady’s retirement would be preferable for Tampa Bay’s cap situation. ESPN’s Bill Barnwell labeled the Buccaneers as a “perfect landing spot” for Raiders quarterback Derek Carr. The three-time Pro Bowler is under contract with the Raiders through the 2025 season, so the Bucs would need to pull off a trade unless Las Vegas decides to surprisingly release the quarterback.

“The Buccaneers have a veteran core on both sides of the ball, so I would be surprised if they went for a long-term project at quarterback,” Barnwell wrote on December 19, 2022. “I suspect they’ll make a serious effort to bring back Brady, but they’ll be in the running for one of the other veterans in the market if he retires or heads elsewhere. This would be the perfect landing spot for Derek Carr, although a more realistic option might be Geno Smith or Jacoby Brissett.”

Carr Has a No-Trade Clause in His Contract

It has been a disappointing season for the Raiders, but Carr has had some bright spots for Las Vegas, especially in late-game situations. Barnwell believes the Raiders will make a run at Brady given head coach Josh McDaniels’ ties to the quarterback dating back to his days as Patriots offensive coordinator.

Carr has thrown for 3,348 yards, 23 touchdowns and 11 interceptions while completing 61.2% of his passes through 14 starts this season. Even if the Raiders attempt to move on from Carr, the quarterback holds the power thanks to a no-trade clause in his contract. Carr’s three-year, $121 million contract runs through 2025, and the quarterback is slated to have a $32.9 million base salary next season.

“Carr has a no-trade clause on this deal, but it’s unclear whether he would be willing to accept a deal to another team if that organization appealed to the 31-year-old,” Barnwell explained. “The Raiders could also cut him outright and free up $29.3 million in cap space, although they would surely prefer to get something in return for the veteran quarterback.”

What Is Carr’s Trade Value?

Tampa Bay would have their work cut out to take on Carr’s deal as the Bucs are projected to be more than $42 million over the salary cap in 2023. We have seen teams in similar situations get creative, but Tampa Bay faces an uphill battle to add another star quarterback if Brady moves on.

Pro Football Focus’ Brad Spielberger also views the Bucs as a potential landing spot for Carr if the Raiders look to replace the signal-caller. Spielberger estimates that Tampa Bay would need to give up first and third-round picks to acquire Carr.

“Carr’s contract was structured in a way that provides an out for Las Vegas here, as very little money was tied up in prorated bonuses,” Spielberger detailed on December 21. “Furthermore, a three-year deal for less than $40 million per year could also be enticing enough to potential suitors with no need to immediately revisit the contract just one year after Carr signed.

“…Carr would be the best quarterback in the NFC South as opposed to third place at best in the AFC West, and the Buccaneers can make a few more runs in a weak NFC conference before more fully turning over this roster.”