Draft Favorite Not ‘Slam Dunk’ for Commanders at No. 2 Overall

Getty LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels.

The odds have started to swing toward LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels being the No. 2 overall pick for the Washington Commanders in the 2024 NFL draft.

While ESPN’s Draft Day Predictor shows a 49 percent chance the Commanders will go with the Heisman Trophy winner, there is still too much uncertainty around the pick to call it a lock.

“Any model like this requires uncertainty, though there is little actual doubt that (Caleb) Williams will go No. 1 and the Commanders will take a QB at No. 2,” wrote ESPN analytics expert Seth Walder. “The model believes Daniels has the edge — and he is probably an odds-on favorite if we mentally redistribute the Williams and (Marvin) Harrison probabilities — but it’s no slam dunk.”

The next two most likely picks for the Commanders at No. 2, according to the Draft Day Predictor, are North Carolina’s Drake Maye (21 percent) and Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy (12 percent)

Jayden Daniels Has Momentum Headed Into Draft

Daniels has clear momentum heading into the draft, which will be held on April 25-27 in Detroit.

NFL draft expert Todd McShay broke down the buzz around Daniels in pretty clear terms on Barstool Sports’ Pardon My Take podcast on April 22.

“Of the dozens of calls I made from January to now — GMs, personnel directors, scouts — there wasn’t one person I’ve spoken to that believes Drake Maye should be drafted No. 2 ahead of Jayden Daniels,” McShay said.

ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. had Daniels rated as the No. 2 overall prospect in his latest rankings released on April 23, only behind Williams.

“Daniels has rare ability as a dual-threat playmaker,” Kiper Jr. wrote. “He can evade, elude and blow by defenders, but he also impressed with the way he can run through contact. But it’s his improvement as a passer that has him looking like a Round 1 selection. Yes, having blue-chip wideouts Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. to throw to was a huge benefit, but they also were fortunate to have a passer like Daniels with a big-time skill set directing the offense.”

Kiper Jr. had Maye at No. 6 on his draft board, with wide receivers in the next three spots following Daniels — Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr., Washington’s Rome Odunze and LSU’s Nabers.

Commanders Selected Heisman Trophy QB in 2012

If the Commanders do select Daniels at No. 2 overall, it will be the second time in recent history the franchise has taken a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback at that spot.

Washington selected Baylor’s Robert Griffin III at No. 2 overall in 2012 after Griffin, another dual-threat quarterback like Daniels, won the Heisman at Baylor in 2011.

Griffin got off to a piping-hot start in his NFL career and was named NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2012 and led Washington to the playoffs but ended his year with a torn ACL.

Griffin never regained his form from his rookie year and ended his time with Washington playing safety on the scout team before being released by the team following the 2015 season and was out of the NFL in 2020, following three seasons as a backup with the Baltimore Ravens.