Projected $283 Million QB ‘May Fall’ to Steelers: Analyst

Getty ESPN's Louis Riddick argued that Justin Fields' drop in trade value could help the Pittsburgh Steelers acquire the quarterback.

The Athletic reported on March 4 that the Pittsburgh Steelers are “not pursuing” the top available quarterbacks this offseason such as Justin Fields. But ESPN’s Louis Riddick predicted that could change if the trade compensation for Fields continues to drop.

While appearing on ESPN’s Get Up on March 6, Riddick argued that the lack of trade interest in Fields could turn the quarterback into an appealing trade target for the Steelers.

“If the market’s as soft for Justin Fields as we all believe it is right now, he may fall right into their hands,” Riddick said, via Steelers Depot’s Ross McCorkle. “What would be more Pittsburgh Steeler than that, for them to wait, stay true to the game as they see it, and not go out and do something totally out of character for the team, but let it come to them.

“I would bet on that kind of thing happening.”

For weeks prior to The Athletic’s report, Fields heading to the Steelers had tremendous momentum. ESPN’s Adam Schefter speculated that Fields would be worth at least a second-round pick and perhaps another selection depending on the exact values of the picks.

But on March 4, Schefter changed his tune.

“I don’t think the market for Justin Fields is as robust as the Bears, and he had thought,” Schefter said on the Pat McAfee Show.

Fields’ trade value may have dropped, but Spotrac still projected Fields to be worth $283 million on a six-year contract when he becomes a free agent.

Fields will have a cap hit of about $6 million for the 2024 season. His rookie deal also includes a fifth-year option of roughly $25.6 million for 2025.

Steelers Involvement in the QB Market

The Athletic’s report halted the hype around Pittsburgh adding a big-named quarterback in free agency or a trade this offseason. But it wasn’t the first report that ruled out the Steelers acquiring Fields or other starting signal callers.

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Gerry Dulac reported on February 17 that the Steelers were not interested in adding a quarterback seeking to start in 2024.

“They are committed to giving Pickett a third season to see if he is the guy to do more than just win a playoff game — something they haven’t done in a franchise-record seven years,” wrote Dulac.

But despite what Dulac and The Athletic have said, Schefter has remained adamant that the Steelers are monitoring the quarterback market.

“They’re looking, they’re absolutely looking, and I would expect at some point they’re gonna add one of those guys,” Schefter said on The Pat McAfee Show, via Steelers Now’s Chris Ward. “It doesn’t feel like they are in an urgent mode to where, boy we’re gonna go make the move for Kirk Cousins on Day 1 of free agency and outspend all these guys.

“I think that they still absolutely have hopes for Kenny Pickett, which I think enters in the ultimate decision they make in whatever quarterback they bring aboard.”

Schefter’s report gels with Riddick’s proposed plan for Pittsburgh. That is, the Steelers are shopping the quarterback market but with caution in attempt not to overexpose their hand.

Meanwhile, the Steelers are publicly touting Pickett as their 2024 starter.

At What Price Could Steelers Be Interested in Acquiring QB Justin Fields?

If the ESPN talking heads are correct, the question becomes at what price do the Steelers feel comfortable trading for Fields?

Riddick didn’t speculated what draft compensation he’d consider the Steelers “falling into” Fields. Presumably, it’s less than a second-rounder.

Schefter used two past trades — the Kansas City Chiefs acquiring Alex Smith and the Carolina Panthers dealing for Sam Darnold — as a barometer for a Fields trade this offseason.

Darnold, though, appears to be a better comparison. The Chiefs sent two second-round picks to the San Francisco 49ers for Smith but that was more than a decade ago.

Furthermore, Smith had posted a 19-5-1 record as a starter and won a playoff game in the two seasons prior to his trade. Fields owns a 10-28 career record.

The Panthers sent three draft picks, including a second-rounder, to the New York Jets for Darnold. Before the trade, Darnold was 13-25 as a starter with New York.

However, the second-round selection in the deal was in the following year’s draft. The Jets gained just a fourth and sixth-round choice in the 2021 draft in exchange for Darnold.

If the Bears wish to receive a second-round pick for Fields, perhaps it will be a 2025 selection instead of 2024. Otherwise, the draft capital to acquire Fields could be significantly less.

It remains unclear, though, how much less it would have to be for the Steelers to agree to a Fields trade. That’s assuming they are even interested at all.

And to win the game of chicken, the Steelers will likely have to continue being patient.

Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer reported on March 4 that the Bears intend to wait until after the beginning of free agency to revisit trade scenarios for Fields.

By then, the Steelers could have re-signed Mason Rudolph.