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Round 1 of the 2023 NFL draft kicks off on April 27 and as many as five quarterbacks could hear their names called on opening night, including three or more in the first five selections.
Below, former NFL general manager and Executive of the Year Randy Meuller has unveiled his final QB prospect rankings and scouting notes to Heavy Sports.
5. Anthony Richardson, Florida (RS Sophomore)
Richardson is the much-ballyhooed athlete who is still trying to learn the position of quarterbacking at DEFCON level 5. He lacks experience (13 career starts), the same amount that former Bears starter Mitchell Tribisky had in college. It’s a process, and by completing only 54.7% of his passes with 24 TDs and an exceptionally high number of 15 interceptions in 2022, he has given all evaluators plenty of ammo to ask “why?”
Here’s the deal. He is a great (not good) athlete. He has a fluid and easy fundamental delivery. He can escape pressure and extend plays like very few — even at the NFL level — and he has the arm velocity to make every throw required at the highest level. Unfortunately, he flushes the pocket early and often, he misses wide-open targets way too often. Accuracy is his biggest flaw and he just lacks feel and anticipation for processing from the pocket.
Summary: Richardson has all the physical tools you look for when setting your QB criteria for an NFL QB. Unfortunately, he is very, very raw and unrefined as a player at the most complicated position in the sport. His decision-making is, at best, a work in progress. He is currently a thrower and not an NFL passer. He’s a project with big upside, but way too risky to consider, in my opinion, early in the draft.
4. Hendon Hooker, Tennessee/Virginia Tech (Senior)
There are only a couple of things not to like about Hooker, who was the Offensive Player of the Year in 2022. Both things have zero to do with his on-field play:
- He tore his ACL versus South Carolina in November and is in the middle of a long rehab.
- He is already 25 years of age.
The knee should heal, but the age is an issue when tied to the length of his rookie contract. If he was to be drafted in Round 1, teams would get a five-year deal, and his first year may be a medical wash because he will miss all field activities as a run-up to the regular season. Is that fifth year valuable? Because as a second-round pick, a team only gets a four-year deal. Just something to think about.
As a player, Hooker checks the major boxes for me. He has size, he is athletic, he can make all the throws — from the pocket and on the move. He is accurate while throwing with anticipation and timing and made me say “wow” multiple times while watching the tape. He has 36 career starts and for his career, he completes 66% of his passes (70% in 2022). Under head coach Josh Heupel at Tennessee, Hooker had 58 TDs and only 5 INTs in two years as the starter.
Having said that, he can be careless at times. He’ll make a bad decision by trying to fit a throw into a tight window or try to unload the ball late on an out route and put his team in jeopardy. He’s very accurate, he throws a very nice deep ball and consistently uses the correct trajectory (which never gets talked about enough when evaluating QBs). His throwing motion is effortless.
Summary: I like this kid a lot. Although not ideal, I would not be discouraged by his age or the injury at the end of the day. It is outweighed, for me, by his calmness in the pocket and his ability to anticipate and see the field. It may not be until 2024, but somebody in the NFL is getting a starting QB. At the end of the day, I may even take him over the next guy on the list.
3. Will Levis, Kentucky/Penn State (Senior)
Levis had two starts in his three years at Penn State before transferring to Kentucky and starting 24 games. He has 46 career TD passes, but an alarming 25 INTs in the same timeframe. He passes the eye test by checking all the criteria for height, weight and speed. He’s very athletic and can operate effectively running QB-designed runs. Think Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen when looking for a running philosophy and similar style.
As a passer, Levis has a fundamentally sound delivery and an easy throwing motion. This comes with top-shelf arm talent and velocity. Together this athletic ability and arm allow him to extend plays and make throws on the run.
The downside is his accuracy is very inconsistent and his decision-making is suspect at best. He consistently underthrows deep balls and the UK passing game is somewhat elementary. The fact that he is a very smart kid (academic All-American) and he has tons of experience and still makes these decisions, scares me. Time will tell if he can change that perception.
Summary: In Levis, I see a very high-end physical talent who struggles with accuracy and decision-making. That makes me nervous. Is the upside there or is he fatally flawed? It’s a risk to me any way you look at it and therefore I couldn’t consider taking him before later in the first round, at best.
2. Bryce Young, Alabama (Junior)
Young is a young, but experienced prospect whose polarizing lack of size has all evaluators up in arms, in the search for the franchise QB at the NFL level. He is not only an outlier, but he will historically break the mold for the smallest frame ever as an NFL QB to be drafted this high. Russell Wilson was a third-round pick and Kyler Murray was thicker and stronger, so there has never been someone with this size to excel at the NFL level. Even though he is only 21 years old, his 27 starts and his 80 TDs compared to only 12 INTs are evidence (on paper) that he can get it done at a big-time level.
Young has everything else that NFL evaluators look for when selecting the face of your franchise. He has great feet, can move within the pocket and has enough athletic ability to extend plays. Even though he won’t be able to run away from NFL defenders, he can escape pressure and move the chains with his legs. He is very poised in the pocket, and surprisingly has the vision to locate and process downfield like a passer who might be 6-foot-3. His accuracy and anticipation are outstanding and his overall poise is something that can’t be coached. He has touch, trajectory and throws a nice deep ball. His arm strength is average by NFL standards, but it won’t hold him back.
My worries for Young come in the form of his long-term durability because of his frame, and along those same lines, operating in a dirty, crowded pocket for 17 games per year. It’s one thing to play against Georgia and their NFL talent twice a year. In the NFL, he gets the UGA equivalent 17 times in successive weeks and the pocket will not be clean. Ask Tua Tagovailoa how that is working out.
Summary: I like Young a lot. I have no issue with his skill set or ability. He consistently has done all the things you want from your QB. He is worthy of picking high, although I probably wouldn’t trade up to get him (just my opinion). In fact, I’d pick him very early, if there wasn’t another QB who I felt better about.
1. CJ Stroud, Ohio State (RS Sophomore)
At 21 years old, Stroud is mature beyond his years. He possesses the best combination of talent and refined play along with checking all the physical boxes of any of this year’s top group of QBs. I love his delivery; the ball comes out of his hand quickly and he has the arm strength to make all the throws. His 25 colligate starts accompanied by his 69.3% completion percentage with 81 TDs and only 12 INTs remove all doubt for me about him being too young and inexperienced.
He can process information from the pocket (the No. 1 criteria for an NFL QB), he identifies coverage and has good vision on the entire field. His footwork is clean and he does the best job of linking upper-body and lower-body throwing mechanics. He anticipates and throws with excellent timing. He is consistently accurate, makes good decisions and is not afraid to take a chance when it presents itself.
Question marks are few and far between for me with Stroud’s game. He will occasionally flush too early and he might take an unneeded sack instead of throwing the ball away. Two things that will improve on the next level.
Summary: For me, Stroud is better physically than 2022’s top prospect, Kenny Pickett. He checks the most boxes without hesitation in this year’s draft and his personality and leadership at Ohio State tell me the pro game won’t be too big for him. He is worthy of being the No. 1 overall pick and I would not hesitate if I were the Carolina Panthers.
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