Getty Elijah Mitchell runs past the Houston Texans during the 49ers' Sunday, January 2 game.
One week ago, the San Francisco 49ers were in a prime position to clinch their second playoff berth in three seasons. The criteria: Win at home on Sunday, January 2 over the Houston Texans and stay in the driver’s seat for the sixth NFC wildcard spot, plus get help along the way down in the NFC South.
The 49ers, once given a 74% chance of making the playoffs before the home tilt, handled their business there — beating the Texans 23-7 at Levi’s Stadium. They relied on rookie quarterback Trey Lance, the ground attack from Elijah Mitchell, the dynamic plays of Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle and used a stout defense to throw off Davis Mills in the 16-point win. That victory leaves the 49ers at 9-7 with one game left.
happy neW year!
The win over Houston should mean their chances of making the postseason increased, right?
Unfortunately, no. Why? Because the New Orleans Saints are refusing to give up on their own playoff pursuit. By beating the Carolina Panthers 18-10, the Saints didn’t just improve to 8-8 overall, but puts their conference record at 6-5 along with the ‘Niners. A Saints loss would have secured the sixth seed for the 49ers.
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And now, one playoff poll released on Sunday from one national analytics website has made changes to the 49ers’ postseason hopes.
Playoff Chances Have Dropped in Percentage for the 49ers
According to the website FiveThirtyEight, the 49ers now have a 61% chance of making the playoffs.
Again, before the Texans game, their percentage was higher by 13.
As for the Saints, the website gave them a lower percentage number: Having a 39% chance of clinching a spot.
What’s odd is this: The Philadelphia Eagles, per the nfl.com playoff picture updated on Monday, January 3, have solidified their playoff spot at 9-7 overall but as the seventh seed. Meaning the sixth seed, the higher seed here, is still up for grabs.
So how can all this get smoothed out?
What the 49ers Need to Do
It’s simple, just win. A win, and the 49ers are in.
But it won’t be a walk in the park. Nor will it come against a team that likely won’t be resting their starters even though a playoff spot has been clinched on their end.
San Francisco has had the Los Angeles Rams’ number lately: Winning the last five meetings including the 31-10 drubbing in Week 10 on Monday Night Football.
But the Rams are red-hot heading into the regular season finale at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood — having won their last five games. In the process, they’ve done the following: Knock off the Arizona Cardinals from the top of the NFC West and help lessened the playoff hopes of the Minnesota Vikings and Baltimore Ravens by beating both.
A loss by the 49ers will mean this: S.F. needing the Atlanta Falcons to come through, as noted below by David Lombardi of The Athletic.
The 49ers have a 61% chance of making the playoffs, according to 538.
One of two underdog wins needs to happen next Sunday afternoon: SF either needs to beat the Rams, or Atlanta needs to beat the Saints.
Neither is likely in a vacuum, but the 49ers need only one of those two
Lombardi additionally helped clear up any confusion involving the 49ers’ playoff aspirations.
There’s one more dilemma the 49ers are facing: They’ve been listed as a 4.5 underdog by FiveThirtyEight, plus have been given a 34% chance of knocking off the Rams.
The Saints? The website has them favored by 2.5, and has been given a 59% chance of beating the Falcons on Sunday, January 9.