Getty Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith
The Seattle Seahawks won their Week 18 matchup with the Arizona Cardinals, but they missed the playoffs, and quarterback Geno Smith lost even more in contract incentives. The QB could have made $15 million if he and the team improved on last year’s results, but Smith and the Seahawks fell short on all accounts.
Geno Smith Missed All His Contract Incentives
Last season, Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith shocked the world by going from journeyman signal caller to playoff QB after the Russell Wilson trade.
That performance led to the Seahawks giving Smith a three-year, $75 million contract with$40 million guaranteed, which works out to an average annual value (AAV) of $25 million, per Spotrac.
Included in this Geno Smith contract were five key contract incentives and a bonus if he hit all five incentives. There would have been $2 million bonuses if he improved in passing yards, passing touchdowns, completion percentage, passer rating, and team wins (or another payoff berth), and he would get a $5 million escalator on top of that if he surpassed his 2022 marks in all five categories.
When the dust settled on the 2023 Seahawks season, Smith missed all five incentives.
In 2022, Smith played in 17 games and was 399-of-572 for a league-leading 69.8 percent completion rate. He threw for 4,282 yards with 30 touchdowns and a 100.9 quarterback rating while the team went 9-8 and made the playoffs, per Pro Football Reference.
This season, the Seahawks QB answered the bell 15 times and ended the year 323-of-499 for a 67.7 percent completion rate. He threw for 3,624 yards with 20 touchdowns with a 92.1 quarterback rating, and the team went 9-8 but missed the playoffs.
That’s how Smith lost out on $15 million at the end of the Seahawks season.
What Smith’s Contract Means for His Future
Like most NFL deals, the Geno Smith contract isn’t exactly what it was reported to be.
This was essentially a one-year deal for the quarterback that the team will either have to cut or renegotiate if they want to bring the QB back for 2024.
In 2023, the Seahawks paid Smith $27.5 million, but his cap hit was a team-friendly $10.1 million. That was the 127th-highest cap hit in the league last season, according to Spotrac, and 14th among quarterbacks.
Next season, that cap hit jumps up to $31.2 million. For context, Kansas City Chiefs star Patrick Mahomes ($37.1 million) and Tennessee Titans veteran Ryan Tannehill ($36.6 million) were the only two players in the entire league who went through this past season with higher cap hits than that.
So, if the Seahawks want to bring Geno Smith back for one more season, that will mean restructuring his deal. This could save the team around $10.6 million against the cap, according to OverTheCap. The problem with this is that it will push money into the future, so the team will be dealing with this contract past 2025 when Smith is almost guaranteed not to be in Seattle.
Whether it’s because Drew Lock proved something in relief this season or the team has a QB it likes in the 2024 NFL Draft, the most likely outcome here is that the team cuts or trades Smith, with a release being more likely because of said contract.
If the team jettisons its starting QB before June 1, 2024, the Seahawks will have to take the $17,4 million dead cap hit, but that will save $13.8 million against Smith’s scheduled $31.2 million cap hit. If they cut or trade him after June 1, by NFL rules, the team can split the dead cap hit over two seasons, putting $8.7 million of it on the books for 2024 and the same amount for 2025. That will save the team $22.5 million next season.
The Seahawks don’t have a surefire starting quarterback on the roster yet for the coming campaign, but with the transition from Pete Carroll to another head coach, this could be the perfect time to make a commitment to someone new.