Getty The Buccaneers could re-sign Baker Mayfield to a rich contract.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers appear to have found their franchise quarterback.
After signing a bargain one-year, $4 million deal during the offseason, Baker Mayfield has established himself as one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL during his first season in Tampa Bay. At a record of 8-8 entering the final week of the season, the Buccaneers could clinch the NFC South division title with a win after entering the season with the worst-odds of winning the division.
As CBS Sports’ Cody Benjamin projects, he expects the Buccaneers to re-sign Mayfield to a much richer contract — a two-year deal worth $54 million.
Benjamin compares the deal to that of Geno Smith’s contract with the Seattle Seahawks after he saw a similar breakthrough campaign last season.
“After a roller-coaster ride from the Browns to the Panthers and Rams, Mayfield has exceeded expectations in Tampa Bay, controlling the ball better to keep the Buccaneers playoff-relevant in a post-Tom Brady world,” writes Benjamin. “His career resume still suggests he’s a QB you compete with rather than build around, but at 28, he’s young enough to warrant another starting gig. Like the Seahawks with surprise breakout Geno Smith in 2022-2023, the Bucs could be motivated to reward him while retaining long-term flexibility. Mayfield, meanwhile, figures to value continuity after years of bouncing around, though staffing changes could affect that.”
Why Baker Mayfield Should Sign Similar Deal to Geno Smith
By comparison, the two deals are somewhat similar. After Smith led the Seahawks to the playoffs behind a Pro Bowl year along winning the Comeback Player of the Year award, the veteran quarterback inked a three-year, $75 million deal with $40 million guaranteed. Smith’s $25 million per year average is roughly in line with the projection for Mayfield, who would be due to earn $27 million per year on a shorter-term deal with Tampa Bay.
When comparing both players’ single season stats, Mayfield’s numbers are almost a replica of Smith’s from the 2022 season, with the latter only showing an advantage in completion percentage and rushing yards.
Baker Mayfield’s statistics are eerily similar to Geno Smith’s from the 2022 season.
Mixed Projections on Baker Mayfield’s Contract Value
Meanwhile, Spotrac projects Mayfield’s market value to be much lower than CBS Sports’ contract prediction for the former No. 1 overall pick. In fact, Spotrac’s projected market value for Mayfield is merely four years at $65.8 million for $16.4 million per season, which would make him just the 20th-highest paid quarterback in the league.
For context, Mayfield ranks within the top 10 in several major passing categories, including passing touchdowns (fourth), yards (eighth), passer rating (ninth) and completions (10th).
Meanwhile, OvertheCap has a much kinder contract projection (based upon Mayfield’s play this season) at $33 million per year.
It also doesn’t hurt that both the Buccaneers and Mayfield have mutual interest in running it back moving forward.
Via Ian Rapoport of NFL Network:
“Sources say there is mutual interest for Mayfield and the Bucs to run it back in 2024,” wrote Rapoport on December 24. “The former Browns, Panthers and Rams quarterback might have found a stable home.There are potential issues to work through, however, with Mayfield set to enter free agency having renewed leverage. But based on what the team has meant to him, and what the QB means to them, both parties want to do it again next year.”
While Mayfield certainly has some leverage in potentially leaving Tampa Bay for a bigger payday from another team, expect both sides to benefit from remaining together — which means Mayfield should get at least $27 million per year from the Buccaneers.