Getty Buccaneers QB Tom Brady is sacked by a Carolina Panthers defender.
Tom Brady’s decline is unfolding in real time.
It is getting increasingly difficult to write off Brady’s struggles this season as a couple of rough starts. Brady’s struggles in Week 7 in Carolina against the Panthers were as alarming as we have seen from the seven-time Super Bowl champion.
In a game that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were thoroughly dominated in all phases, Brady was simply irrelevant. Brady completed only 32-of-49 passes for 290 yards in a listless 21-3 defeat to the NFC South rivals.
“You watch Tom, and he looks like he’s done,” an AFC South scouting director told Heavy on Sunday afternoon, October 23.
This has been a physically grueling start to a season as Brady has had to withstand in his career.
After briefly retiring for 40 days over the offseason, Brady is already withstanding the punishment of 10 sacks through seven weeks, while passing for only 1,942 yards with 8 touchdowns to 1 interception.
Following Sunday’s loss, the Buccaneers are now 3-4 and riding a two-game losing streak that has seen Tampa outscored 41-21, having dropped four of its last five games.
“They’re trying to survive with Tom Brady,” a former NFL general manager recently told Heavy, echoing the scouting director’s concerns about the Buccaneers. “And they can’t. They’re not going to.”
As SI’s Albert Breer points out, this is the first time Brady is under .500 this late into the season since 2002.
No one is going to bench Brady.
But, the Buccaneers and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich may need to face the hard reality that this offense, this scheme, is going to need to change in order to emphasize what Brady — the current incarnation of Brady is capable of.
Otherwise, this simply isn’t sustainable if Father Time has finally caught up to Brady, and the scheme doesn’t account for such a sudden and stark decline.
Here are 10 other takeaways from Sunday’s NFL action in Week 7.
Dallas Cowboys Offensive Line Finally Asserts Itself
The Dallas Cowboys‘ woefully inefficient offensive line rounded a significant corner in the third quarter against the Detroit Lions.
As the Cowboys trailed the Lions 6-3, and took possession off a Trevon Diggs interception, Dallas’ offensive line authored a vintage performance finally asserting itself against the Lions’ front seven. That drive, Dallas’ first of the second half, running backs Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard accounted for 52 of Dallas’ 82 yards, culminating in Elliott’s third rushing touchdown of the game, giving the Cowboys the lead.
On the methodical scoring drive, right guard Zack Martin and Terrence Steele paved the way for Elliott and Pollard. It was the kind of possession that showed the ceiling of how good the Cowboys’ offense can be when it’s functioning as designed.
Over the second half against Detroit, the Cowboys’ offense churned out 87 rushing yards, which both kept the Lions’ offense at bay and shortened the game by draining the clock in the fourth quarter.
If the Cowboys are going to factor in the NFC playoff push, returning to the hallmark of a ground-and-pound running game will go a long way.
Chiefs Offense Shifts Into High Gear
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs rounded into vintage form in as big an inter-conference test as there could be seven weeks into a season.
In San Francisco against the 49ers, Mahomes and the Kansas City offense thoroughly dominated a defense that entered Sunday’s clash allowing the second-fewest points in the league, second-fewest rushing yards in the league, and the fewest yards of total offense in the league.
Thanks in part to a 30-point second half, Kansas City ran all over and past the 49ers, 44-23, scoring nearly three times the points San Francisco entered Week 7 allowing per game.
Mahomes’ performance was a hallmark of this era’s Kansas City dominance. And, he did it against one of the NFL’s stingiest defenses.
Sunday afternoon, Mahomes completed 25-of-34 passes for 423 yards with 3 touchdowns to just 1 interception and a 132.4 passer rating.
Buoyed in large part by a 30-point second-half outburst, Mahomes completed passes to eight different Chiefs, including Juju Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdez-Scantling each surpassing 100 receiving yards.
The Chiefs’ offense wasn’t the only star of the show, as Steve Spagnuolo’s defense held the run-centric Niners to just 4.8 yards per carry, sacked quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo 5 times, hit him 8 times, and the front seven simply overwhelmed the 49ers’ offensive line from the first whistle to the final gun.
As Kansas City enters the bye week at 5-2, one game ahead of the Los Angeles Chargers with a head-to-head win tucked away, the Chiefs are rounding into championship form.
That’s bad news for the rest of the AFC.
Saquon Barkley Becoming the Giants’ Closer
Saquon Barkley rushed for 100-plus yards for the third time this season, and 15th time of his career as one of the catalysts of the New York Giants‘ 23-17 comeback win in Jacksonville.
Beyond producing 125 yards from scrimmage, Barkley was the Giants’ battering ram to close out New York’s fourth consecutive win in the fourth quarter. Sunday, Barkley entered the fourth quarter with just 38 rushing yards, adding 72 in the final frame.
Over the past four weeks, Barkley has amassed 72 yards, 26 yards with 1 touchdown, 2 yards with 1 touchdown, and 43 yards in the fourth quarter. Barkley’s fourth-quarter production accounts for roughly 35% of his total rushing yards over that stretch, as he has been instrumental in closing out four consecutive victories.
Barkley’s explosiveness and playmaking ability in the open field, combined with his strength, make him an ideal weapon for the Giants’ coaching staff to lean on relentlessly at a point in games where defenses are tiring. At 6-1, that has become a winning formula for New York.
Even Deshaun Watson Might Not Save the Cleveland Browns
After the Browns‘ comeback bid came up short, 23-20, against the bitter rival Ravens in Baltimore, Cleveland sinks to 2-5, firmly in the AFC North cellar.
For as dominant as the Browns’ ground attack has been; Nick Chubb rushed for 91 yards and a touchdown, averaging 5.68 yards per carry against the Ravens, the rest of the offense has been too limited to be close to being competitive.
There is certainly hope within the organization that Deshaun Watson’s return from a suspension stemming from an 11-game suspension stemming from more than two dozen credible allegations of sexual misconduct will resurrect the offense.
However, those hopes may be too optimistic for the reality of the state of the roster.
Bear in mind that Watson’s career record with the Houston Texans was just 28-25, and while he’ll largely have a stronger supporting cast in Cleveland, the Browns have played some wildly inconsistent football that may make it difficult even for Watson to be too significant of a difference-maker.
It’s Time for the Indianapolis Colts to Correct a Misstep
The Indianapolis Colts have become the latest cautionary tale against dropping an aging veteran quarterback into a roster that isn’t ready-made to compete for a Super Bowl title.
Sunday may have been rock bottom for Colts quarterback Matt Ryan.
Ryan threw a pair of first-half interceptions, on consecutive possessions, including an Andrew Adams pick-6 that the Titans safety returned 76 yards for a walk-in touchdown. Adams’ interception came on a Ryan pass that Parris Campbell didn’t seem to realize he was a potential target for on the play.
On the day, the 37-year-old Ryan completed 33-of-44 passes for 243 yards with 1 touchdown to 2 interceptions in a disheartening 19-10 loss to the division-rival Tennessee Titans.
Following Sunday’s loss, the Colts fell to 3-3-1. After Tennessee completed the season sweep, it is time to turn the page.
For Indy, the time is now to give Sam Ehlinger the keys to the offense.
Ryan offers negligible upside at this stage of his career. Especially after now tossing just 9 touchdowns to 9 interceptions through the Colts’ first seven weeks.
The good news for the Colts is that their commitment to Ryan doesn’t extend beyond this season.
Indianapolis can cut Ryan post-June 1, 2023 and create $17.205 million in cap space, while triggering an $18 million dead money charge. Pocket change, compared to the Broncos being fully tied to Russell Wilson through at least 2026.
Attempting to fast-track some sort of rebuild around Ryan, with a roster with limited playmakers on offense was always fool-hearted. Continuing to play Ryan rather than evaluate Ehlinger feels like a franchise compounding its mistake, rather than keeping a trained eye on its future.
Indianapolis is now 1-3-1 in AFC South play. The Colts’ sluggish start will make it dreadfully difficult to climb back into the AFC playoff picture.
At this point, there is far more to be gained from getting Ehlinger snaps than there is playing Ryan for another game.
The Green Bay Packers Have No Identity
What is the Green Bay Packers‘ identity?
What exactly does this team do even reasonably well right now?
Against the Washington Commanders, the Packers’ offense simply couldn’t get anything going.
Aaron Rodgers passed for only 194 yards with a pair of touchdowns. But, beyond Rodgers’ mediocrity, the Packers’ quarterback’s frustrations boiled over throughout the game as none of Green Bay’s wide receivers surpassed Allen Lazard’s 55 receiving yards. Even highly touted rookies Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson combined for just 2 catches for 36 yards — all by Watson.
Rodgers and the offense finished Sunday 0-for-6 on 3rd down and 0-for-1 on 4th down, while the Packers’ defense allowed the Commanders to convert 44% of 3rd downs, prolonging drives.
“I don’t think Rodgers is done,” an NFL scout told Heavy on Sunday. “He’s just moody, but the physical tools are still there.”
The problem for Rodgers and the Packers is that if this offense doesn’t get fixed in a hurry, it won’t matter if Rodgers returns to his MVP level that fans have become accustomed to because this season could quickly slip away.
Suddenly, the 3-4 Packers are staring up at the 5-1 Minnesota Vikings, in the midst of a three-game losing skid with a conference record of just 2-3.
How Long Will the Broncos Settle for Nathanial Hackett?
There is going to come an inflection point with Nathanial Hackett’s time as the Denver Broncos head coach.
Hackett, hired by the Broncos on January 27, 2022, was the head coach that the Walton family — the heirs to the Wal-Mart fortune — inherited when they purchased the franchise for a record $4.65 billion on June 7, 2022. Thus far, the Hackett experience has been more “people of Wal-Mart” than empire building.
The Broncos have found new ways to lose each week.
In Sunday’s 16-9 home defeat to the Jets, the Broncos somehow lost despite out-gaining New York 324 yards to 260, picking up 21 first downs to the Jets’ 10, and winning the time of possession battle 32:23 to 27:37. New York still left Mile High with an ugly 16-9 win.
Now 2-5, with $166 million fully guaranteed to a regressing Russell Wilson, with underachieving offensive weapons around him, and plenty of holes still to fill on defense, things could be about to go from worse to worst in Denver.
That’s because the Broncos don’t have a first or second-round pick in the 2023 NFL draft after shipping them to Seattle in exchange for Wilson. So, it is going to prove increasingly difficult to build a contending team. Especially one that can withstand Hackett’s shortcomings from clock management, play-calling and schematic standpoints.
The Walton family’s net worth is $212 billion. Hackett’s entire contract is for $4 million. Do the math.
If the wins don’t quickly start piling up, why wouldn’t the Waltons sacrifice a rounding error from their abundant fortune to turn the fortunes of their franchise?
Jets’ 4th Straight Win Comes at Heartbreaking Cost
The New York Jets‘ latest win comes tinged with heartbreak.
Breece Hall’s rookie campaign was off to the kind of start that justifiably had Jets fans dreaming of a bright future, and leading some within the organization to view him as the best player on the roster.
However, after suffering a “serious knee injury” that Jets head coach Robert Saleh revealed after the game is feared to be a torn ACL, Hall’s season could be over.
Hall was in the midst of another prolific performance, rushing for a team-high 72 yards on 4 carries, with 1 rushing touchdown, before his knee buckled underneath him in the midst of being gang-tackled.
The injury is the latest heartbreak for a franchise that has struggled mightily to breakthrough, but now has a young core of exciting players with upside — perhaps none with more than Hall, but could now be without their star back through at least September 2023.
New York will now turn to Michael Carter in the backfield, and perhaps go shopping for running back help as the November 1 deadline looms, but losing Hall will loom large the rest of the way.
Mack Hollins Continues to Emerge as a Weapon in Raiders’ Crowded Offense
Even after the Las Vegas Raiders traded for All-Pro Davante Adams over the offseason, a new weapon is emerging in quarterback Derek Carr’s arsenal.
Mack Hollins continues to prove a reliable target for Carr. In Sunday afternoon’s 38-20 Raiders victory over the Houston Texans, Hollins caught 2 of his 3 targets for 44 yards and a pivotal Vegas touchdown.
Hollins has earned his opportunity to be a key contributor in the Raiders’ offense, and he’s earned the trust and respect of his teammates, Adams especially.
“I realized from the moment we were in OTAs,” Adams said of Hollins, during a recent appearance on The Matt Lombardo Show presented by Heavy. “That he was going to have a pretty solid impact on this team. His attitude, his personality, it’s infectious. It’s something we need on this team, it’s why he is a captain, and was voted as such by his teammates. It’s because he does it right. He’s a great teammate to have.”
Geno Smith ‘Staking His Claim’ in Seattle
The Geno Smith redemption story added arguably its most impressive chapter in Week 7.
Smith, largely a veteran journeyman prior to taking the reigns this season after the Seattle Seahawks traded Russell Wilson to the Broncos, has been one of the biggest surprises of the 2022 campaign.
Sunday, Smith completed 20-of-27 passes for 210 yards with 2 touchdowns to 1 interception in a 37-23 win over the Los Angeles Chargers, authoring the kind of performance in the kind of win that can alter the trajectory of a franchise.
“Geno really is staking his claim to that job [long-term],” an NFC executive told Heavy.
Just how dominant has Smith been, how at home has the 32-year-old been in Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron’s scheme? According to NextGenStats, Smith leads the NFL in completion percentage above expectation (+8.1), is 4th in the NFL in passer rating (108.6), and entered Week 7 ranked sixth in passing touchdowns.
Presuming Smith keeps this torrid pace and leads Seattle to the postseason, and the Seahawks opt to move forward with him long-term, general manager John Schneider has a bountiful NFL draft war chest to build around him.
Seattle will have two first-round picks, two second-round picks and two fifth-round picks, among nine total selections in the 2023 draft. Already boasting a roster that is the 11th-youngest in the league, if Smith is the answer, there’s real potential for the Seahawks to emerge as one of the NFC’s upper-echelon contenders for years to come.
Week 7 Breakout Star: Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III
Sunday’s outburst from Seahawks second-round rookie running back Kenneth Walker III was a crescendo from two consecutive dominant performances.
In Los Angeles against the Chargers, Walker broke loose, running wild for 168 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while averaging a whopping 7.3 yards per carry.
Walker has now rushed for 402 yards with 4 touchdowns and has already rattled off five explosive runs of 10-plus yards, after entering Sunday’s contest with seven. The Seahawks just may have found a game-altering weapon to build their offense around.
Week 7 MVP: Bengals QB Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow authored one of the more dominant quarterback performances in recent NFL regular season history.
Against the Atlanta Falcons, Burrow and Bengals star wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase seemed to take their connection to new heights, the pair of former LSU teammates connected on 8-of-11 targets for 130 yards and a pair of touchdowns. But, Chase’s outburst was the tip of the iceberg for Burrow.
The Bengals’ quarterback, who issued a reminder that he remains among the elite passers in this league, completed 34-of-42 passing for 481 yards with 3 touchdowns while adding 20 rushing yards and another score.
Burrow was the driving force behind the Bengals’ 35-17 win, and performances like Sunday’s are what makes him one of the game’s brightest young stars 10 months removed from his first Super Bowl appearance.