I know what you’re thinking, casual UFC fans: why should I bother with UFC 130?
I’m not going to try and convince you that Quinton Jackson vs. Matt Hamill is an epic main event; it’s not, we all know that. It is, however, a solid light heavyweight contest that will help clear things up at the top of the division, and one of five very solid fights on the main card. Additionally, with two fights getting the Prelims Live treatment on Spike TV and the remainder of the contests finding their way to Facebook and Heavy.com, you’ve got another event where every fight is available to you.
I know that doesn’t make up for losing Edgar-Maynard 3, but honestly, nothing would. I was really looking forward to that fight too. Have patience, it will happen. As you wait, why not enjoy this preview of the very competitive 10-fight card that remains for UFC 130.
Renan Barao (25-1-0) vs. Cole Escovedo (17-6-0)
If I said the name Jose Aldo to a casual MMA fan two years ago, there was a good chance they were going to look at me with a perplexed look on their face. He was an unknown commodity that showed championship potential, the same combination his teammate Barao exhibits now.
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Not only is Barao a Nova Uniao teammate of the UFC featherweight champion and a fighter Aldo ha previously tabbed for greatness, he’s also riding a 26-fight unbeaten streak. He lost his debut (by split decision) and hasn’t looked back since, save for a No Contest back in December 2007.
He debuted with the WEC in June 2010, submitting Anthony Leone in the third round before making much quicker work of Chris Cariaso at WEC 53 in December. Now Barao makes his UFC debut, and if Aldo, several noted pundits and I are right, you’ll be hearing a lot more from him in the future.
After pestering Dana White for a shot at the big time on Twitter, Escovedo gets a chance to prove himself, taking this fight on somewhat short notice after injuries reshuffled the deck. By the way, I loved “The Apache Kid’s” approach of getting after White on Twitter; you know the UFC President loves the medium, so make the most of it. Well played, Mr. Escovedo.
The 29-year-old is more than a hopeful who mined an opportunity online; Escovedo is a former WEC featherweight champion who has faced several current UFC talents, including Urijah Faber, Antonio Banuelos and Michihiro Omigawa. His head kick knockout of Yoshiro Maeda at Dream 13 was one of the best of 2010, and his overall skill set makes him a dangerous opponent for Barao and addition to the roster, should the UFC decide to keep him in the fold to fill out the 135-pound ranks.
Michael McDonald (12-1-0) vs. Chris Cariaso (11-2-0)
As outlined in the first installment of the Rated Next series, I think very highly of McDonald, the youngest fighter on the UFC roster. His placement on this card cements those lofty expectations even more.
After battling Edwin Figueroa in a 15-minute masterpiece at Fight Night 24 in Seattle just two months ago, McDonald is right back in the cage, taking the place of Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto opposite Cariaso on little more than a month’s notice. When you add his willingness to step up like this to the constantly improving and already solid skill set he brings to the Octagon, you’d be hard-pressed to find someone who doesn’t share my feelings that McDonald is a champion in the making.
Cariaso is in a tough position here. Though he’s 2-1 through his first three fights as a Zuffa employee, including winning his UFC debut back in January, a pair of uneventful decisions combined with a first round submission loss isn’t really the blueprint for long-term success. Now he’s facing the best prospect in the bantamweight division with just four-weeks to prepare.
Gleison Tibau (22-7-0) vs. Bart Palaszewski (35-14-0)
No disrespect to the injured and unable to compete Cody McKenzie, but his lost opportunity is our gain, as a fight between the filling in Tibau and IFL/WEC veteran Palaszewski is a much more compelling matchup.
Tibau returns to the cage a little over two months after earning a split decision win over Kurt Pellegrino at UFC 128, and reprises his role as divisional gatekeeper. A massive specimen for the 155-pound weight class, the Brazilian has very good takedown defence, improving hands, and a strong ground game, the perfect mix to make him a pain in the ass for anyone and everyone hoping to climb the lightweight ladder.
Looking over his resume, Tibau has never been able to take the next step; he’s beaten solid middle-tier competition, but comes up short against top end talent, the hallmark of a good gatekeeper. He was impressive against Pellegrino and has all the tools to frustration Palaszewski in this one as well.
After racking up 49 fights across an alphabet soup of organizations over the last eight years and change, Palaszewski will mark his 50th fight with his first trip into the UFC Octagon.
A quick glance at his record doesn’t give you an accurate depiction of what “Bartimus” brings to the table. While he’s just 6-6 through his last dozen fights, Palaszewski is the quintessential warrior, a guy who will take on anyone at any time. He’s faced solid competition throughout his career, having handed Anthony Pettis the lone loss of his career and gotten the better of guys like Kyle Watson, Ivan Menijavr and the previously unbeaten Zack Micklewright.
Palaszewski is 4-1 over his last five fights, dropping a narrow split decision to Kamal Shalorus on the final WEC show in his most recent outing. That relatively successful run coincides with the Jeff Curran trainee’s decision to take control of his life outside of the cage, including fighting a personal battle outside the cage, something Palaszewski discussed with me prior to his fight with Sharolus.
The soon to be 28-year-old has a solid all-around attack in the cage and should be able to handle himself wherever the fight takes place. Like Tibau, Palaszewski is a BJJ black belt, and his boxing is constantly improving. UFC 130 takes place two days before Palaszewski’s birthday, so don’t be surprised if he goes out and gets himself a win as an early present.
Kendall Grove (12-8-0) vs. Tim Boetsch (12-4-0)
Remember when Grove showed such promise coming off of Season 3 of The Ultimate Fighter? His bout with Ed Herman in the finale was a three-round gem, and his D’Arce choke against Alan Belcher had you thinking good things were in store for the lanky Hawaiian.
Boy, were we wrong.
Grove has been maddeningly average since then, posting a 4-5 record over his last nine fights while never fulfilling his potential. For every quality performance he’s had since becoming “an Ultimate Fighter season winner” as Bruce Buffer likes to say, there has been an equally poor showing as well. With three losses in his last five and both wins coming against fighters who no longer call the UFC home, Grove could be looking at a must-win situation.
Boetsch caught a lot of people by surprise when he announced plans to move to middleweight following his UFC 123 loss to Phil Davis. Previous to that, “The Barbarian” had won four-straight, including a decision victory in his return to the Octagon at UFC 117. A massive man, it will be interesting to see what kind of impact the cut to 185 pounds has on the 30-year-old former high school and collegiate wrestler.
If Boetsch can get inside on Grove, he has the skills to hand the Hawaiian another loss. Grove works best when he uses his length to work in space and dictate the terms of the fight, but we’ve seen him pushed out of his comfort zone by physical fighters like Mark Munoz and Ricardo Almeida in the past. While Boetsch isn’t quite on the same level as Munoz, he has the physical strength and size to control the distance here, which could be the x-factor in determining the outcome of this fight.
I’d like you to meet our Under the Radar fight for UFC 130. For a fight that came together just over a month ago, there is a lot riding on this fight for both Torres and Johnson.
After reigning over the bantamweight division for what felt like eternity but was really just shy of two years, Torres has bounced back from back-to-back losses to post consecutive wins over Charlie Valencia and Antonio Banuelos. Those two fights showcased a different Torres than fans were used to seeing, as his decision to work with Firas Zahabi and the team at the Tristar Gym in Montreal has completely shifted the former champion’s approach in the cage.
Where he used to look to beat his opponents at their own game, Torres now relies on a strict game plan, tighter boxing technique and inflicting punishment while taking as little as possible inside the cage. Some may call it boring, but the reality is that if Torres wants to make another run at the 135-pound title, he can’t afford another loss.
While Torres is the former champion looking for a return trip to the top, Johnson is the young upstart who has been very impressive over since debuting in the WEC in April 2010. With three-straight wins following a spirited loss to Brad Pickett on short notice in his first fight in the WEC, Johnson has positioned himself inside the divisional top ten, and a win over Torres could be enough to move him to the front of the line of contenders.
In his UFC debut, Johnson used is lightning-quick takedowns and constant movement to keep “Kid” Yamamoto off balance and on his back, en route to earning a unanimous decision win over the Japanese star. That win came on the heels of a dominant submission victory over the much larger Damacio Page at WEC 52.
Though pundits are correct in asserting that Johnson would benefit from the introduction of a flyweight (125-pound) division in the UFC, “Mighty Mouse” has proven that he can more than hold his own within the bantamweight ranks. In fact, he might be the only fighter in the division who can match the frenetic pace and constant movement of champion Dominick Cruz.
If you need further persuading in order to get hyped for this fight, I’ve got you covered with the Under the Radar feature. And no, I don’t just say the exact same things I said here.
Brian Stann
Brian Stann (10-3-0) vs. Jorge Santiago (23-8-0)
This is a fight I’ve been waiting to see since it was announced back in February.
A former WEC light heavyweight champion, Stann has earned back-to-back impressive wins since making the move to middleweight, knocking out notoriously hard-headed Chris Leben in his last trip to the cage on New Year’s Day. That win followed a third round submission of Mike Massenzio and continued to show the development of Stann’s skills inside the cage.
A life-lomng athlete and competitor, Stann has the athleticism to excel, and his decorated military background provides him with the structure and framework to focus on what needs to be done and not stop working until the goal is reached. The daily grind of going to the gym and drilling the same techniques is nothing new to Stann, and that will only help him continue to get better.
While Santiago has been in the UFC before, the man who will stand opposite Stann on Saturday night is not the same fighter who last competed inside the Octagon at Fight Night 7 in December 2006.
Since losing back-to-back bouts to Leben and Alan Belcher and being released by the UFC, Santiago has developed into one of the best middleweights in the world, going 11-1 while holding the Sengoku middleweight title and earning Fight of the Year for his second fight with Kazuo Misaki in August 2010.
Santiago has finished all but one of his fights since departing the UFC; he earned a unanimous decision win to avenge a prior loss to Mamed Khalidov at Sengoku 12. Equally dangerous standing and on the ground, the former American Top Team member believes he has the talent to beat Anderson Silva one day hold the UFC middleweight title, and welcomes the opportunity to show North American fans how much he’s improved since he last fought in North America.
With the middleweight division lacking top end opposition that Silva hasn’t already beaten, the winner of this contest could find themselves closing in on a title shot. While I don’t see this as a title eliminator, this fight is definitely a step in the right direction for both men, and should earn the winner a high profile fight later this year.
Thiago Alves (18-7-0) vs. Rick Story (12-3-0)
With Edgar-Maynard 3 falling victim to injury, Alves and Story make the move from Spike TV to the pay-per-view broadcast.
See what I mean about this card having been stacked and remaining pretty solid? When’s the last time Alves didn’t fight on PPV?
Despite the fact that he had no problem making weight and thoroughly dominated John Howard in his last appearance, there are still those who remain skeptical of Alves.
At his best, the American Top Team standout is a perennial title contender and mainstay in the top 5 of the welterweight division; a devastating striker with the size and strength of a middleweight. Unfortunately for Alves, his successes are not as well remembered as his failures, both on the scale and in the cage.
He’s dogged by missing weight against Matt Hughes and Jon Fitch, and though he’s only lost twice in the past four years, those losses to Fitch and Georges St. Pierre have left Alves unable to climb above #3 in the welterweight rankings. Don’t expect Alves to miss weight this time, but do bank on seeing a very determined “Pitbull” walk into the cage on Saturday night.
This is a golden opportunity for Story, a grinder who has predominantly used his wrestling to carry him to five-straight wins inside the Octagon. Alves is by far the biggest test of the Brave Legion fighter’s career, and a win would certainly push him to new heights. While Story enters the bout as the underdog, he has the skills to pull off the upset.
Over his last two fights, Story has shown continued growth and evolution. After earning a pair of tight split decision wins over Jesse Lennox and Nick Osipczak, the 26-year-old dropped Dustin Hazelett at UFC 117 and followed it up with a unanimous decision win over Johny Hendricks at the Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale in December. Combine those performances with his impressive arm triangle choke win over Bria Foster from UFC 103 and you see that Story has the potential to be a complete threat in the welterweight division.
Every young fighter and future contender needs their breakthrough fight, and this could be Story’s moment. Alves is a known commodity within the welterweight ranks, and an upset win is just the ticket to take Story from developing prospect to bona fide contender in just one fight.
Stefan Struve (21-4-0) vs. Travis Browne (10-0-1)
While Struve and Browne may not be the biggest names in the heavyweight division, do not use this fight as your bathroom break. Both fighters have serious knockout power and prefer to go toe-to-toe, so you might want to make sure you catch this one.
Browne escaped UFC 120 with his undefeated streak still intact thanks to Cheick Kongo’s insistence on grabbing his shorts. The massive French kickboxer lost a point and cost himself the win in the process, as he had won the second and third rounds by all accounts. That being said, Browne lived to fight another day and has the power to put another tick in the win column at any time.
The Alliance MMA trainee made very quick work of James McSweeney in his UFC debut, and took the opening round from Kongo before fading back in October. Though he’ll be the smaller of the two competitors in the cage this time around, Browne is a mountain of a man himself, something that should come in handy against his lanky Dutch opponent.
To be successful here, Browne needs to turn this into a grimy battle along the fence and on the ground. If given space, Struve has the ability to finish on his feet and off his back, so Browne should look to keep close and do all kinds of dirty work inside.
The future is exceptionally bright for Struve; a championship run somewhere down the line is not out of the question. Though he’s just 23-years-old. Struve has already racked up 25 professional MMA fights, including a 5-2 record inside the Octagon, and there is a lot to like about what he brings to the table.
At 6’11” with an 83″ reach, Struve presents a host of problems with his size alone. In addition to being able to keep opponents at the end of a lengthy jab or space-creating push kick, Struve has serious knockout power, as he showed against Christian Morecraft and Sean McCorkle. On top of that, he has above average jiu jitsu; two-thirds of his victories have come by way of submission.
Interesting anecdote: Struve also holds a win as a result of his opponent being disqualified for fish-hooking; that’s awesome.
What puts Struve ahead of most other heavyweight prospects is his heart and ability to take punishment and keep coming. He was a bloody mess in the opening round of his UFC 99 victory over Denis Stojnic, a massive gash on his head giving him a crimson mask, and Morecraft had him on the ropes early in their battle before Struve rebounded with a massive right hand early in the second.
His youthful exuberance and willingness to take punishment has proven to be his downfall in the past, as both Roy Nelson and Junior dos Santos took advantage of Struve’s desire to trade punches and laid him out. Browne doesn’t quite have JDS power or boxing acumen, but he’s got the hands to end a fight in a hurry, so Struve will need to be a little more careful this time around.
Somehow, I doubt that will happen, which is why I told you up-front not to leave your seat when these two hit the cage.
Frank Mir (14-5-0) vs. Roy Nelson (15-5-0)
Do you ever get the feeling that you’re about to watch something that dispels a bunch of beliefs a lot of people hold true? That’s the feeling I get when it comes to this fight.
A former two-time UFC heavyweight champion, a lot of people describe Mir as the best jiu jitsu practitioner in the big boy division, and see him as having the edge in the stand-up department heading into this fight. Personally, I’m not sold, and that’s why I’m so interested in this contest.
I know that a grappling competition and jiu jitsu inside the Octagon are two different things, but Nelson got the best of his fellow Las Vegas lifer back in the day at a Grapppler’s Quest tournament, and I can’t shake that from my memory. Two other things jump out at me here:
1. It’s not like there is a laundry list of elite grapplers in the heavyweight ranks, so the competition for the title of the best of the bunch really comes down to Nelson, a rapidly aging Rodrigo Nogueira and the aforementioned Stefan Struve.
2. Is submitting Antoni Hardonk and Cheick Kongo really that big of a deal? As nice as Mir’s kneebar on Brock Lesnar was, he got smashed by the mammoth heavyweight prior to that and again in the rematch, so I call it a wash. Plus, a BJJ black belt and former heavyweight champion submitting an MMA neophyte shouldn’t be that unexpected.
In the striking department, I’ll give Mir credit for rounding out his skill set. He’s looked much better in the stand-up department over the last two-plus years, but Nelson has proven he too has power in his hands, as well as the ability to hang in there and take a punch. When it comes to the latter, Mir can’t rightfully say the same.
Mir’s late knockout of Mirko Cro Cop at UFC 119 can be countered by Nelson’s one-punch knockout of Struve at Ultimate Fight Night 21, his beatdown of Nogueira weighed against Nelson’s TUF 10-winning blasting of Brendan Schaub. Meanwhile, while Mir wilted under the force of numerous bombs from Lesnar and Shane Carwin, Nelson took three rounds of punishment from Junior dos Santos – on a blown-out knee no less – and kept smiling.
Of course, he also got starched by Andrei Arlovski prior to moving to the UFC, so maybe I’m just looking at Nelson in a favorable light.
Either way, this fight will confirm which of these two is truly the better man inside the cage, and position the winner in the thick of the heavyweight title hunt.
Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (31-8-0) vs. Matt Hamill (10-2-0)
As with every “Rampage” fight in recent memory, everything about this contest hinges on which version of the former light heavyweight champion shows up on Saturday night. Actually, we’ll know on Friday afternoon when he steps on the scale.
If Jackson is in shape, on weight and focused, Hamill’s first trip to the main event could become a very bad memory. For all the grief Jackson takes and all the doubters, myself included, who wait with trepidation for an unmotivated Jackson to walk onto the stage at the weigh-ins, he’s lost just twice in nearly five years; once after more than a year away from the cage, and the other being a debatable decision that cost him the 205-pound title.
While some question his split decision win over Lyoto Machida at UFC 123, there is no denying what Jackson has accomplished throughout his career.
He was the first man to hold both UFC and Pride belts simultaneously, unifying the straps by beating Dan Henderson at UFC 75 prior to Anderson Silva doing the same six months later. He holds a pair of wins over Chuck Liddell, avenged two previous losses to Wanderlei Silva in dramatic fashion and has been a top 10 light heavyweight for the better part of the last decade. Jackson is a tremendous talent, and that deserves to be said more often. It also makes me nervous for Hamill.
As successful as the former TUF 3 standout has been, he hasn’t done very well when asked to take the next step. Even if you dispute his loss to Michael Bisping as a bad decision and count Hamill as the victor, his DQ win over Jon Jones has the opposite impact. Though he survived into the third round with Rich Franklin, Hamill was behind on the scorecards before “Ace” dropped him with a kick to the liver.
While his wins over Tito Ortiz and Keith Jardine were solid victories, and his headkick knockout of Mark Munoz at UFC 96 was impressive, Hamill appears to be best suited for a gatekeeper role, not elite status.
He could prove me and a lot of other people wrong with a victory here.
