Duke guard Grayson Allen will be a national player of the year favorite (Getty)
5. Oregon
Once again Oregon enters the season with high hopes, and once again there’s an injury concern before the year begins. Last year it was guard Dylan Ennis who missed significant time with a foot injury, and now it’s forward Dillon Brooks (16.7 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 3.1 apg) who’s sidelined with a foot issue. Brooks’ versatility, as he can be used in a variety of ways by head coach Dana Altman, is what makes him a favorite for Pac-12 Player of the Year provided he get back on the court. That attribute (versatility) is critical for a team that while deeper than last season’s Elite Eight team doesn’t have as many versatile parts as they did a season ago with Elgin Cook and Dwayne Benjamin gone. Chris Boucher (12.1 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 2.9 bpg), who exceeded expectations in his first season as a Duck, is back for his senior season and will be joined in the front court by juniors Jordan Bell (6.8 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and Kavell Bigby-Williams and freshman M.J. Cage. On the perimeter Ennis, Tyler Dorsey (13.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg) and Casey Benson (6.0 ppg, 3.1 apg) all return, and freshmen Payton Pritchard and Keith Smith will also figure in the team’s plans. Oregon enters this season with lofty expectations, and how well they handle them will depend in part upon the health of their best player (Brooks).
4. Kentucky
The Wildcats have another talented freshman class, one that multiple scouting services rank as the best in the country. Guards De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk are both expected to start, as is power forward Bam Adebayo, with forwards Wenyen Gabriel and Sacha Killeya-Jones figuring prominently in the Kentucky rotation as well. Just as important to Kentucky’s success are the returnees, most notably guard Isaiah Briscoe (9.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 3.1 apg) and forward Derek Willis (7.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg). Briscoe’s been the leader for this group and he’s also improved his shooting form, and Willis’ abilities at the four give Kentucky a big man who can space the floor with his perimeter shooting. Head coach John Calipari will have to account for the loss of his top two scorers in Jamal Murray and Tyler Ulis, with the latter also being one of college basketball’s best leaders, but that’s par for the course in Lexington given the annual roster turnover.
3. Villanova
As noted on the previous page it was Villanova who won the national championship, with Kris Jenkins’ three-pointer from the right wing as time expired being the difference. Leaders Ryan Arcidiacono and Daniel Ochefu are gone, but in their place step seniors Josh Hart (15.5 ppg, 6.8 rpg; preseason Big East Player of the Year), Jenkins (13.6 ppg, 3.9 rpg) and forward Darryl Reynolds (3.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg). Add in returnees such as Jalen Brunson (9.6 ppg, 2.5 apg), Phil Booth (7.0 ppg, 2.1 apg) and Mikal Bridges (6.4 ppg, 3.2 rpg), with Bridges being a breakout candidate, and Fordham transfer Eric Paschall, and head coach Jay Wright will have the talent, experience and toughness needed to make another title run. Villanova’s freshmen will also be heard from, with Dylan Painter and redshirt freshman Donte DiVincenzo expected to contribute. What hurt the Wildcats was the NCAA decision to not clear five-star big man Omari Spellman for competition, leaving them a man short in the post. The biggest question for Villanova to address is the role of rim protector, left vacant by Ochefu’s graduation. If Reynolds can shift into that role without major difficulties, Villanova can become the first time since Florida in 2007 to repeat as national champion.
2. Duke
Mike Krzyzewski and his staff managed to reel in a recruiting class ranked right behind Kentucky in the national rankings. But injuries have been a factor thus far, with Harry Giles undergoing another knee procedure, Jayson Tatum suffering a sprained foot and Marques Bolden suffering a lower leg injury. Tatum will be ready to go when the season begins, but Bolden’s status after the opening weekend has yet to be determined and there’s no concrete date for a Giles return either. That all being said, everyone’s expected back at some point, and the combination of newcomers and returnees makes the Blue Devils a serious threat to win it all. Guard Grayson Allen (21.6 ppg, 4.6 ppg, 3.5 apg) will be a national player of the year candidate, and Frank Jackson, Luke Kennard (11.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg) and Matt Jones (10.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg) are among the other perimeter contributors, with freshman Javin DeLaurier (who’s been a bit overlooked by some) and senior Amile Jefferson (11.4 ppg, 10.3 rpg) in the front court. A Sweet 16 team last season, Duke can be a lot more in 2016-17 provided everyone stay healthy.
1. Kansas
Bill Self has led the Jayhawks to 12 consecutive Big 12 regular season titles, and the expectation is that the streak extends to 13 this season. But this is also a team with the pieces needed to win a national title, which would be the second for Self at Kansas (2008) if they were to accomplish that feat. Guards Frank Mason III (12.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 4.6 apg) and Devonte’ Graham (11.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 3.7 apg) will serve as the leaders, with a very good crop of freshmen led by competitive wing Josh Jackson and center Udoka Azuibuike being added to the rotation. Returnees including Carlton Bragg (3.8 ppg, 2.5 rpg) LaGerald Vick (2.1 ppg), Svi Mykhailiuk (5.4 ppg) and Landen Lucas (5.8 ppg, 6.8 rpg) will all contribute as well. Those veterans also have the experience of last season, where as the top seed in the South Region they reached the Elite Eight before falling to eventual national champion Villanova. While Duke, the team picked by many for the top spot in preseason polls, has a lot to offer so do the Jayhawks. And with that being said, seeing Self cut down the nets in Glendale, Arizona come April would surprise no one.