The Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills AFC Wild Card bout is set in stone. Buffalo will be making just their second playoff appearance since the 1999 season. On the other sideline, Houston will be looking to improve on their 3-5 all-time franchise playoff record, including going just 1-3 SU over their last four games.
When and Where: Bills vs. Texans
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- Location: NRG Stadium
- Date: Saturday, 1/4
- Time: 4:35
- Coverage: ESPN/ABC
Follow the Heavy on Betting for all the latest betting news, odds, and picks
Matchup Preview
Buffalo Bills Outlook
With essentially nothing to play for in Week 17, the Buffalo Bills decided to rest the majority of their starters. Quarterback Josh Allen attempted just five passes, completing three of them before calling it a day.
Due to the fact that Buffalo handed their Week 17 game to the New York Jets, you can’t take it into consideration when placing your bet for this AFC Wild Card game. Yet before that contest, the Bills were an impressive 4-2 ATS in their last six games and 11-5 SU in their last 17 contests.
Buffalo comes in as one of the most well-rounded teams in all the NFL. Allen has improved leaps and bounds from his rookie season. Devin Singletary has helped head the fifth-best run offense in football, while defensively they rank as third-best total unit in all of football.
Houston Texans Outlook
The Houston Texans locked up the AFC South this season, however, it wasn’t pretty. Quarterback Deshaun Watson has struggled down the stretch of the year, tossing five interceptions over his last three games.
Defensively, Houston’s secondary has been a revolving door of former first-round disappointments. Yet none have truly helped improve their defense on the back end. Over the Texans last three games, they’ve allowed nearly 300 passing yards per game, the fourth-most in all of football over that span. The Texans will, however, be getting an added boost in their front-seven, as former DPOY JJ Watt has been removed from short-term IR.
Houston’s visible struggles on the playing field have carried over into the betting realm, as the Texans have gone just 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. teams with a winning record.
Betting Odds & Trends
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- BUF Bills (+3.5) vs. HOU Texans (-3.5)
- Over/Under: 42.5
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*All odds are courtesy of OddsShark
BUF Bills Trends
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- 4-2 ATS in their last 6 home games.
- 8-4 SU in their last 12 games against an AFC opponent.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 games.
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HOU Texans Trends
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- 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games.
- 4-1 SU in their last 5 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of their last 8 games.
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Head to Head
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- Texans have gone 5-4 SU against the Bills in their 9 head-to-head matchups.
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Pick: Take Bills (+3.5)
Buffalo has held three of their last five opponents to just 17 points or fewer. Deshaun Watson’s recent struggles are concerning, while Carlos Hyde will find it difficult to find run room against a defense that allows the ninth-fewest rushing yards in the NFL when playing on the road.
Houston has been a horrendous bet of late when playing at home, winning just two of their last eight games ATS in their own stadium. The Texans have beat up on below .500 teams this year, yet Buffalo is anything but that.
Taking the UNDER may be your best bet come this weekend. Over the two teams’ last 13 combined games, they’ve hit the UNDER in 10 of them.
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Bills vs. Texans Prediction: Playoff Betting Line & Pick