The Green Bay Packers (8-8) play host to the Chicago Bears (7-9) in a Week 18 regular season finale with major playoff implications.
While the Bears have been eliminated from the playoffs, they can play spoiler to a Packers team facing the same scenario as last season: A win-and-in game at Lambeau Field against an NFC North rival looking to cut their season short.
Per the New York Times playoff simulator, Green Bay’s current 68% chance at a Wild Card spot jumps to <99% with a win, or will drop to 25% with a loss.
Heavy Sports’ projections model, powered by our partners at Quarter 4, gives the Packers a 57% win probability over Chicago.
Here are five AI-powered predictions we have forecasted using the model:
1. Jordan Love & Justin Fields Will Have Big Passing Days
The Packers have won 5 of their last 7 games. The Bears emerged victorious in 4 of their last 5 games. That success has been due, in part, to more consistent quarterback play and (at least in the Bears’ case) opportunistic defense.
On Sunday, our model likes both Love and Fields to stay hot and exceed their season averages in completions and passing yards:
- Love projections: 25.0 comp, 261.5 pass yards, 2.1 pass TDs
- Fields projections: 22.4 comp, 240.4 pass yards, 1.1 pass TDs
Those are noticeably big totals considering Love has reached 260 passing yards 5 times this season, while Fields has reached 240 passing yards only 3 times.
Passing conditions should be adequate for kickoff at 4:25 p.m. Eastern time. The early weather report in Green Bay calls for cloudy conditions, a 19% chance of precipitation, and a high temperature of 35 degrees. That’ll drop into the high 20s in the evening.
2. The Bears Will End Jordan Love’s Interception-Less Streak
Love hasn’t thrown an interception in his last 3-plus games (126 straight attempts), and has only thrown 1 pick in his last 7 games dating back to November 19.
Our model projects 1.4 INTs for the Bears defense on Sunday, the second-highest implied total among all 32 defenses in Week 18.
Chicago’s defense ranks middle-of-the-pack in average yards (317.4) and points (22.6) allowed per game, but they currently rank No. 1 in the NFL in interceptions (22).
Sixteen (16) of them have come over the last 6 games, including 4 INTs against the Falcons last week.
The Bears defense has 16 interceptions over the last 6 games
3. DJ Moore Will Redeem His 2-Catch, 25-Yard Game in Week 1
This is easy to say looking at Moore’s 159-yard explosion in Week 17 and career-high 1,300 receiving yards and 9 total TDs this season.
However, Green Bay put the clamps on Chicago’s WR1 in Week 1, limiting him to a season-low 2 targets and receptions in their first meeting. A decision Bears OC Luke Getsy immediately called “a disappointment.”
The Packers secondary — expecting the return of top CB Jaire Alexander on Sunday — did the same to the Vikings’ offense last week, allowing a measly 144 passing yards on 32 dropbacks.
Our model doesn’t see a 100-yard game in Moore’s immediate future, but it likes him to surpass his season average of 5.7 catches. His projected 0.7 TDs on Sunday is also higher than his 2023 average (0.5 TDs), giving him a better chance to score than not.
4. Packers TE Tucker Kraft Will Exceed 40 Yards for a 5th Straight Game
After fewer than 37 yards in his first 5 appearances this season, Packers rookie TE Tucker Kraft has exceeded 40 receiving yards in his last 4 games.
Our projections like him to do it again against Chicago this week.
Even with the return of fellow rookie TE Luke Musgrave looming, the model expects Kraft to surpass his season averages in catches (3.4), receptions (38.8) and TDs (0.3).
This season, the Bears defense ranks moderately in yards and catches allowed to the tight end position. They gave up 50 yards on 3 catches to Musgrave in Week 1.
Tucker Kraft took this man’s soul 💪
5. The Game Will Be Decided by a Field Goal (or Less)
This would be a surprise considering this rivalry’s recent history, but it’s a realistic possibility given the stakes. The last Packers-Bears game to end with a 3-point margin or less was the Week 1 opener in September 2018, a 24-23 Packers win.
The average margin of Green Bay games this season is 8.4 points and 6 of their 16 games (37.5%) have been decided by 3 points or fewer.
As of Tuesday, January 2, our model has a projected point spread favoring the Packers by 2.5 points on Sunday. That is 0.5 points fewer than all seven major sportsbooks in our database.
The model also likes the under on the consensus point total, which is currently hovering between 44 and 44.5 points.
Green Bay never trailed during the teams’ first 2023 matchup back in Week 1. A garbage-time TD brought Chicago closer late in the 4th quarter, but the Packers won definitively, 38-20.
Here’s a look at how the models are comparing for Sunday:
| Outlet | Spread | Total |
| Heavy* | Packers -2.5 | 43.5 |
| BetMGM | Packers -3.0 | 44.5 |
| DraftKings | Packers -3.0 | 44 |
| FanDuel | Packers -3.0 | 44 |
| ESPNBET | Packers -3.0 | 44.5 |
| SugarHouse | Packers -3.0 | 44 |
| PointsBet | Packers -3.0 | 44 |
| Bet365 | Packers -3.0 | 44 |
* The Heavy data point is a projected spread powered by Quarter4. The other outlets in the table are all sportsbooks.
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5 AI-Powered Predictions for Packers vs. Bears: Week 18