3 Lamar Jackson Predictions for the AFC Championship Game

Getty Ravens QB Lamar Jackson runs vs. the Chiefs.

Lamar Jackson silenced many of his critics during a 4-touchdown performance in the AFC Divisional Round.

He now has the chance to lead the Baltimore Ravens to his first Super Bowl appearance with a win over the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2024 AFC Championship game.

Jackson and the Ravens look to stop Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs from advancing to a second consecutive Super Bowl and can do so by holding serve at M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday, January 28.

Sunday marks Jackson’s first career appearance in the AFC Championship game, a contest that Heavy’s AI-powered projections give Baltimore a 57% chance of winning.

Here’s a look at three AI-powered predictions for Jackson in the AFC Championship game. And if you’re interested in more free AI projections for DFS or sports betting, you can sign up here.

1. Lamar Jackson Will Light Up Chiefs for 2nd-Most Playoff Passing Yards of His Career

Against the Houston Texans in the divisional round, Jackson completed a personal postseason-best 72.7% of his passes, and our model expects an equally dominant showing against Kansas City.

The Heavy Sports model projects Jackson to pass for 242.2 yards against the Chiefs, which would be the second-most passing yards in the 27-year-old’s six-game playoff career.

Not only would 242 passing yards surpass Jackson’s per-game average from the 2023 regular season, after passing for a career-high 3,678 yards, but also higher than the 176.5 passing yards that the Chiefs allowed this season as the league’s top-ranked passing defense.

2. Lamar Jackson Will Extend His Multi-Touchdown Pass Streak

Jackson enters the AFC Championship game tossing multiple touchdown passes for the Ravens in each of his last three games.

Despite facing the league’s No. 1 passing defense, our model expects that streak to continue.

The Heavy Sports model projects Jackson to toss 2.4 touchdown passes against Kansas City, potentially surpassing his total from the divisional round against the Texans.

Throughout the course of the 2023 campaign, Jackson threw more than two touchdown passes eight times. If Jackson winds up exceeding 2 touchdowns, it would mark the third time he’s done so in the playoffs during his career, and 3 touchdown passes would set a new postseason career-high.

Historically, the Chiefs have done a pretty solid job defensively against Jackson, in the passing game. In four career games against Kansas City, Jackson has passed for 750 yards with just 4 touchdowns to 2 interceptions.

3. Chiefs Likely to Hold Lamar Jackson Under 100 Rushing Yards

A major storyline of Jackson’s 2023 season, and a driving force behind the Ravens quarterback becoming an MVP favorite, has been his evolution as a passer.

On multiple occasions throughout the course of the regular season, Jackson has used his mobility to create opportunities in the passing game, by extending plays and hitting his wide receivers late in the down rather than simply trying to scramble for a big gain.

According to our model, that trend has a chance to continue against the Chiefs.

The Heavy Sports model gives Jackson just a 9% chance of rushing for more than 100 yards in the AFC Championship game.

While Jackson rushed for 821 yards and 5 touchdowns during the 2023 season, he only rushed for more than 100 yards once during the regular season, prior to hitting that benchmark against the Texans in the playoffs.