5 AI-Powered Predictions for Chiefs vs. Ravens AFC Championship

Getty Patrick Mahomes (left) and Lamar Jackson (right).

The Baltimore Ravens host the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship game on Sunday, January 28, with a 2024 Super Bowl berth at stake.

Kansas City outlasted the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Divisional Round, 27-24. Travis Kelce scored a pair of touchdowns, leading the Chiefs back into the AFC Championship game in search of a second consecutive Super Bowl appearance.

Meanwhile, the Ravens ousted the Houston Texans, 34-10, in a contest that saw Lamar Jackson throw a pair of touchdown passes and rush for two more scores.

Heavy’s dfsPro Daily AI-powered projections have installed the Ravens as 2.5-point favorites, and give the Ravens a 57% chance of winning the game — more on that later.

Here’s a look at five AI-powered predictions for the AFC Championship game. And if you’re interested in more free AI projections for DFS or sports betting, you can sign up here.

1. Travis Kelce Will Come Back to Earth

Chiefs All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce is just six receptions shy of tying Jerry Rice for the all-time record for postseason catches.

However, the Heavy Sports model projects that Kelce will come up short of making history against the swarming Ravens defense in the AFC Championship game.

Kelce projections: 4.5 catches, 44.9 receiving yards, 0.5 touchdowns

Kelce enters Sunday’s contest riding the high of leading the Chiefs with five catches for 75 yards and two scores against Buffalo, on the heels of a 984-yard and 5-touchdown regular season. However, our model’s projects would be below Kelce’s season averages.

Baltimore has done a nice job limiting the damage done by opposing tight ends this season, allowing an average of 4.3 receptions for 42.3 yards and 0.1 touchdowns to the position.

2. Gus Edwards Will Struggle to Get Going in AFC Championship Game

Ravens running back Gus Edwards rushed for a career-high 810 yards and 13 touchdowns as a focal point of Baltimore’s offense this season.

But, Edwards might find tough sledding against the Chiefs’ front-seven, as the Heavy Sports model projects Edwards to fail to reach his season averages on Sunday afternoon.

Edwards projections: 11.6 carries, 40.1 yards, 0.5 touchdowns, 0.8 receptions for 7.3 yards

While the Chiefs surrendered 113.2 rushing yards per game during the regular season, the Bills ran roughshod over Kansas City in the divisional round for 182 yards.

3. Chiefs WR Rashee Rice’s Dominant Postseason Will Continue

Rookie Rashee Rice has been a revelation during the playoffs for a Chiefs passing game that has struggled all season to find consistent production at the receiver position.

Over the past two games, against the Bills and Miami Dolphins, Rice has combined for 12 catches for 177 yards and 1 touchdown catch.

Our model projects Rice’s strong postseason to continue in Baltimore.

Rice projections: 5.9 receptions, 75.6 yards, 0.6 touchdowns

Rice has become Mahomes’ favorite target, especially in situations where Kelce has struggled to get going. But, a Rice outburst against the Ravens would be even more impressive than his performance against the Dolphins, given that Baltimore boasts the league’s No. 6 ranked passing defense.

4. Ravens TE Isaiah Likely Will Have a Big Day

The Ravens could be getting All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews back against the Chiefs, but how effective he is on the heels of an ankle injury that sidelined him since November 16 remains to be seen.

In Andrews’ absence, Isaiah Likely has proven to be a productive weapon for Lamar Jackson in the passing game, and our model projects another strong outing for the former fifth-round pick in the 2022 NFL draft.

Likely projections: 2.9 receptions, 40.9 yards, 1.0 touchdown

Even with Andrews back in the lineup, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Likely play a more prominent role in the Ravens’ offense. According to Pro Football Focus, Jackson boasts a 152.5 passer rating when targeting Likely, who is averaging 7.6 yards after the catch per reception.

5. Take the Over on Total Points Scored

Ahead of Sunday’s game, the major Las Vegas sports books are in lockstep that the total will come in at 44.5 points.

However, the Heavy Sports model believes the game will be a field goal higher scoring, projecting a total of 47.5 points.

Here’s a look at how our model compares to the projections from major sportsbooks ahead of Sunday’s game:

* The Heavy data point is a projected spread powered by Quarter4. The other outlets in the table are all sportsbooks.