Getty Matt Chapman of the San Francisco Giants
Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for July 12. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Taj Bradley Over 16.5 Pitching Outs Recorded (-120, DraftKings)
Taj Bradley has gone over this line in 4 of his last 5 games, averaging 18.0 outs during that stretch. At home this season, his average is 17.6 outs per game. Bradley has excelled at home, boasting a 1.76 ERA and a .153 OBA, allowing only 2 earned runs over his last 28.0 innings pitched.
While this matchup may seem tough at first glance, the Cleveland Guardians ranks 21st in wRC+ against right-handers over the last two weeks. They’re also 20th in OBP vs. RHP during the same period and 25th in walk rate over the last month. The Guardians have the 7th lowest pitches per plate appearance in MLB right now. Additionally, they are above league average in several categories: 4th in Pitches Swung At%, 5th in Contact%, 7th in Ball In Play%, and 14th in First Pitch Swinging%. This all contributes to quicker outs, which bodes well for us.
In fact, 8 of the last 11 right-handers have exceeded this line against the Guardians, and 7 of the last 9 righties at home against Cleveland have done the same.
Carson Spiers Over 17.5 Pitching Outs Recorded (-110, DraftKings)
The Miami Marlins have been a great matchup for pitchers lately because they swing early in counts. Their 3.73 pitches per plate appearance is significantly lower than the league average of 3.89, which often allows pitchers to face an extra 3-5 batters. Additionally, the Marlins’ offense is struggling, ranking last in the MLB for WRC+ and OPS against right-handed pitchers over the last 30 days and second worst for the season.
Carson Spiers has hit this line in 3 of his last 4 outings, even allowing 7 or more hits in 3 of those games, thanks to his excellent control—he’s issued just 1 walk in 3 of his last 4 starts. Furthermore, 15 of the last 17 pitchers facing Miami have gone 6+ innings while facing at least 20 batters, and Spiers has seen 23+ batters in all 4 games this season.
To top it off, Miami has a high ground-ball rate, meaning every hit they do get could lead to double plays, making this a favorable spot for Spiers.
Lock of the Day
Spencer Schwellenbach Under 16.5 Pitching Outs Recorded (-105, DraftKings)
To be clear, this is primarily a fade of the situation more than anything else. I like Spencer Schwellenbach and think he’s performed well this season, but I don’t expect him to exceed 80 pitches tonight unless he’s really in a groove.
He’s already set a new career high in innings pitched this season with 82.2 (previous high was 65), so the Atlanta Braves are likely to manage his workload in the second half. This is an ideal scenario to limit his innings with a fully rested bullpen and the All-Star Break approaching.
The matchup isn’t the easiest, facing a San Diego Padres team that has been quite aggressive lately and has a wRC+ of just 79 against right-handers in July. However, it’s also important to note that Schwellenbach hasn’t been as effective on the road this(-12 season. While he’s had some bad luck, his road numbers show a 6.89 ERA and a .348 wOBA.
Ultimately, Schwellenbach could still have a decent outing and remain under this line. He hasn’t surpassed 90 pitches this season, and unless he’s dominating, it’s unlikely he’ll go much beyond 80. Even with 5 innings and 15 pitches per inning, that gets us to 75, meaning he would need to be very efficient to go over this line tonight.
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MLB Best Player Prop Bets for July 12