Getty James Paxton
Mere hours after the Los Angeles Dodgers designated lefty starting pitcher James Paxton for assignment, the Boston Red Sox planted themselves in the mix to land his services.
Paxton, who started 19 games for the Red Sox in 2023, would be the only southpaw in Boston’s rotation if the two sides can come to an agreement.
“According to sources, there is a strong likelihood the Red Sox get in the mix for James Paxton, who was designated for assignment by the Dodgers Monday,” WEEI’s Rob Bradford wrote on Monday, July 22. “But there will be competition for Paxton’s services considering he represents a piece of the puzzle more than a few contending teams are thirsty for — an inning-eating veteran starter who can help a club get to the finish line.”
While most DFA moves are aimed at one of the bottom guys on the roster or a veteran the team has lost all hope in, this transaction only makes sense on closer examination.
Paxton was solid this year, with his 4.43 ERA only inflated by a slump over his last four starts. Before that, he was 7-1 with a 3.39 ERA. Overall, the Dodgers went 14-4 in games he started.
It was simply a matter of timing. With Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw set to come off the Injured List this week, it left Paxton as the odd man out. Now, the Dodgers have a chance to trade him and at least get something back in return.
James Paxton Would Come to the Red Sox With Some Red Flags
Yes, Paxton got off to a great start with the Dodgers, but a deeper look into his numbers indicate that luck may have played a significant role.
Even before his last few starts, his FIP (4.78) far outpaced his ERA. Overall, he is walking more batters and striking out fewer than any point in his career, if you go by BB% and K%. Batters are also hitting .269 off Paxton on balls in play despite a 43.5% hard hit percentage.
If the Red Sox are successful in landing Paxton, however, there are some promising signs that he could succeed on the other coast. In an albeit small sample size, Paxton pitched far better at Fenway Park last year than in opposing ballparks. In eight home starts for the Red Sox, he went 3-1 with a 3.16 ERA, striking out 49 in 42.2 innings. On the road, he was 4-4 with a 5.57 ERA with 21 walks in 53.1 innings.
Why the Red Sox Should Work Out a James Paxton Trade
Paxton isn’t the savior fans might want from a pre-deadline acquisition, but he could add key depth to the Red Sox’ rotation. In addition to being the only lefty, he would lengthen a rotation that is strong in the front but falls off in the 4/5 spots.
With that depth comes dependability. Paxton has made his start every turn through the rotation this year for the Dodgers. The downside is that he’s only averaged about 5 innings per start. That said, if the Red Sox don’t also upgrade their bullpen, then whatever Paxton provides is probably irrelevant anyway.
This is also a low risk move for the Red Sox. Paxton is on a one-year deal with $7 million for the Dodgers. His asking price already won’t be too high and there isn’t much of a contract commitment to go with it.