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Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for August 7. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Bobby Witt Jr. Over 0.5 Runs Scored (-135, DraftKings)
Bobby Witt Jr. has been an exceptional hitter throughout the season, particularly impressive at home, where he’s batting .403 with a .455 on-base percentage. However, getting on base is only part of the equation.
The Kansas City Royals have shown a significant preference for hitting against right-handed pitchers compared to left-handed ones in the past month. They are batting .294 against righties but only .240 against lefties. Bobby Witt Jr. has been a standout performer regardless of the pitcher, hitting .340 against both righties and lefties.
In July, the Royals faced 10 right-handed starting pitchers at home, and Witt Jr. scored a run in each of those games. Over the last 20 games against right-handed starters, Witt has scored in 18 of 21. Although Kutter Crawford has had a strong season overall compared to Bello, he has allowed 3 or more runs in 9 of his last 14 games.
Chris Sale Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (-120, DraftKings)
Chris Sale has surpassed this line in 6 of his last 8 starts, including his most recent outing against the Brewers, where he walked 3 batters. The Milwaukee Brewers, who will be fielding 8 of 9 right-handed hitters today, have been particularly effective at drawing walks. They have the 2nd highest walk rate against left-handed pitchers this season (10.4%) and over the past month (12.9%).
Additionally, they rank in the top 5 for counts like 3-0, 3-1, and 2-0, and are among the least aggressive teams in terms of swinging at pitches. Regardless of Sale’s performance—whether he dominates or struggles—this prop remains a strong bet. As demonstrated by Framber Valdez’s 8.2-inning performance last night, it’s possible to give up walks even in a dominant game, while Hayden Birdsong’s 2-inning appearance, also with 3 walks, shows that even a rough outing can lead to walks. Furthermore, with the Brewers having just faced Sale a week ago, they are well-prepared for his pitching.
Parlay of the Day
Tarik Skubal Over 17.5 Pitching Outs Recorded + Michael King Over 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+101, DraftKings)
Tarik Skubal has surpassed this pitching outs line in 19 of 22 games this season, including 7 consecutive games. He’ll be up against the Seattle Mariners, who are 22nd in wRC+ and 24th in OBP against lefties over the last two weeks and are also below average in walk rate.
Skubal excels in several metrics, ranking in the 91st percentile in xERA, 82nd in xBA, 90th in strikeout rate, and 93rd in walk rate. His 2.57 ERA and 0.95 WHIP are both 2nd best in MLB. Despite a well-rested bullpen, I expect the Tigers to let their ace pitch six innings tonight.
Michael King is facing the Pittsburgh Pirates. He has gone over 5 strikeouts in 18 of 22 games this season, including his last 9 straight. The Pirates have the 8th highest strikeout rate against right-handers this season and 9th highest over the past two weeks.
King ranks in the 85th percentile for strikeout rate and has a 10.42 K/9 this year. On the road, he boasts a 2.62 ERA and a .207 opponent batting average. With Cease only pitching one inning tonight, King should have ample opportunity to pitch deep into the game.
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MLB Best Player Prop Bets for August 7