Approaching the midway point of the NFL season, Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold has proven he deserves to be a starting quarterback — and that will likely result in him leaving Minnesota in 2025 free agency.
Pro Football Focus’ Bradley Locker took inventory of the teams with quarterback dilemmas entering Week 9 of the 2024 season and what they should do.
In the Vikings’ case, the answer is clear: don’t overpay at the position and pivot to the cheaper option, J.J. McCarthy.
“The Vikings are 5-2 and likely to make the playoffs (65% chance, per PFF ELO). The team’s offense has been impressive, and Sam Darnold deserves some credit. His 72.7 PFF passing grade is a career high, and his 12 big-time throws are tied for the sixth most in football,” Locker wrote, giving Darnold his due credit.
“At the same time, Darnold hasn’t been incredible, per se. He still sits 16th among qualified quarterbacks in PFF overall grade, not to mention 14th in adjusted EPA per play. Those numbers reflect more of a league-average quarterback, and given how much the Vikings invested in McCarthy, that’s probably not worth retaining.”
Locker’s argument isn’t that Darnold hasn’t done enough; it’s the fact that he has done enough and there are close to 10 teams that could be looking for new quarterback talent next year.
He gave a modest appraisal of the free-agent market next year, but Darnold could command a contract in the ballpark of $30 million-a-year deal — effectively pricing out the Vikings who have McCarthy for $5.4 million a year.
“In light of the aforementioned weaker free-agent quarterback class, Darnold will likely fetch a deal worth at least $15 million per year, likely to be a team’s either QB1 or competition for a younger starter,” wrote. “In turn, Minnesota should simply turn to the cheaper McCarthy, if for nothing but to see what he’s capable of. After all, the Vikings took him [10th overall] and have touted him as their quarterback of the future. That’s what the 2025 season is about determining.”
Sam Darnold Commanding Significant Contract for Next Team
GettyQuarterback Sam Darnold of the Minnesota Vikings.
At just 27 years old, Darnold is poised to hit free agency in his prime and should strike a significant contract with his next team.
Darnold has Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield to set the precedent for his next contract. Both early-round picks revitalized their careers with a team that didn’t draft them.
At 32, Smith played well enough in his first year with the Seattle Seahawks and landed a three-year, $75 million deal in 2023.
Mayfield did the same with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers the next season as a fellow 2018 draftee of Darnold’s. After excelling on a one-year $4 million deal, Mayfield inked a three-year, $100 million deal in March.
Darnold is on pace to throw for 3,910 passing yards, 34 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions, an impressive seasonal stat line that rivals Smith and Mayfield.
Taking into account the inevitable inflation at the quarterback position, Darnold is projected to garner a $33.4 million-a-year deal by Spotrac.
Given the contracts awarded to quarterbacks on par with Darnold, it’d be a hard argument that the Vikings could keep him around — especially with his ultimate desire to start for whatever team he signs with.
J.J. McCarthy Joins Vikings in Travel to Los Angeles
GettyMinnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy
Coming off meniscus surgery in August, McCarthy has largely been in isolation while recovering.
He’s only recently joined the team on the sidelines, and Week 8’s game against the Los Angeles Rams was the first trip McCarthy took with the team.
“McCarthy was part of the team’s traveling party for the first time. He went out to dinner in L.A. with the quarterbacks Wednesday night and was on the headset on the sideline Thursday night,” Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer reported. “He’ll be with the team going forward, but most of his focus is still on rehab. He’s building strength back now and isn’t yet at the point where it’s 50-50 rehab-to-football work, but he’s getting there.”
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Vikings’ QB Dilemma With Sam Darnold Put to Rest