Lavar Johnson (James Law/HeavyMMA)
Breaking down the odds for Saturday’s card in Las Vegas
LAS VEGAS – HeavyMMA’s new CREDITS wagering feature is back with a look at the odds for UFC 146: Dos Santos vs. Mir.
Writer Nate Lawson and writer/editor Matt Erickson this week take a look at the first all-heavyweight main card in UFC history, which takes place Saturday at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.
We refresh you on the rules for our prognosticators at the bottom, and we give you the lines for the fights the boys have to work with. Take a look and see where their (fictional) money is going this week.
Junior dos Santos (-500) vs. Frank Mir (+350)
Cain Velasquez (-400) vs. Antonio Silva (+300)
Roy Nelson (-225) vs. Dave Herman (+175)
Stipe Miocic (-165) vs. Shane del Rosario (+135)
Stefan Struve (-140) vs. Lavar Johnson (+110)
Diego Brandao (-280) vs. Darren Elkins (+225)
Edson Barboza (-550) vs. Jamie Varner (+375)
Jason Miller (-145) vs. C.B. Dollaway (+115)
Dan Hardy (-125) vs. Duane Ludwig (-105)
Jacob Volkmann (-190) vs. Paul Sass (+155)
Kyle Kingsbury (+180) vs. Glover Teixeira (-230)
Mike Brown (-145) vs. Daniel Pineda (+115)
Matt “Riverboat Gambler” Erickson
Last event’s record: 2-2 singles, 0-2 parlays. Overall record: 12-5 singles, 3-5 parlays. Overall bank: Up $268.26.
Last event recap: It was a rough one for MattE, though by hitting a couple singles he only finished down $29.50 from his original $100.
MattE’s Breakdown
There are several intriguing underdogs on this card, including Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva in the co-main event. Yeah, I know he got his lights turned out by Daniel Cormier, and I know if Cormier can knock him out, Cain Velasquez certainly can. But I think he’s worth some small action at these odds. Lavar Johnson, once again, is a great underdog pick. And I think Paul Sass and Dave Herman are interesting. Might as well go for a crazy ‘dogs parlay.
MattE’s Individual Wagers
Silva (+300): $10 to win $40
Elkins (+225): $13 to win $42.25
Hardy (-125): $12.50 to win $22.50
Brown (-145): $14.50 to win $24.50
Johnson (+110): $30 to win $63
MattE’s Parlay Wagers
Silva (+300), Herman (+175), Johnson (+110), Sass (+155): $10 to win $603.07
Dos Santos (-500), Johnson (+110), Barboza (-550), Hardy (-125), Teixeira (-230), Brown (-145): $10 to win $129.96
Total potential earnings: $925.28 ($825.28 profit)
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Nate “Boiler Up” Lawson
Last event’s record: 1-4 singles, 0-2 parlays. Overall record: 6-11 singles, 1-6 parlays. Overall bank: Down $0.63
Last event recap: Nate hit one of his five singles, and the money he lost erased the profit he had built up. He’s now down a total of 63 cents – which, hey, could be a lot worse.
Nate’s Breakdown
I’ll be quick. UFC on Fuel TV 3 was rough for me, betting wise. Heading into UFC 146, I’m looking for a comeback as three of four individual bets lean in the favor of underdogs. Herman, Ludwig, and Elkins all have pretty decent value, while my Brown pick is certainly a safer play. I also like the pair of parlays I’ve placed. The first is straight favorites, and hitting 1.000 is definitely not a long shot. The second, is a bit more of a reach. But let’s not act like this parlay doesn’t have a shot. This card has several uneven matchups as far as the odds are concerned, but the second parlay basically features only close fights.
Nate’s Individual Wagers
Herman (+175): $10 to win $27.50
Brown (-145): $20 to win $33.79
Ludwig (-105): $10 to win $19.52
Elkins (+225): $10 to win $32.50
Nate’s Parlay Wagers
Dos Santos (-500), Velasquez (-400), Miller (-145), Hardy (-125), Brown (-145): $30 to win $231.25
Del Rosario (+135), Struve (-140), Herman (+175), Ludwig (-105): $20 to win $432.59
Total potential earnings: $777.15 ($677.15 profit)
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The Rules
* Must wager an even $100 per event
* Must pick a minimum of four individual fights per event
* Must pick a minimum of one parlay per event, with a minimum of two fights; 10-fight maximum
* Must wager a minimum of $10 per individual fight or parlay with a $50 maximum
* Records and (fictional) money totals will accumulate throughout year
* Winning bets include original wager. For example, a $27.50 win on a $10 bet would include the original wager, plus a $17.50 profit
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Previous installments of CREDITS:
UFC on Fuel TV: Gustafsson vs. Silva (April 13)
UFC 145: Jones vs. Evans (April 21)
UFC on Fox: Diaz vs. Miller (May 5)
UFC on Fuel TV: Korean Zombie vs. Poirier (May 15)
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CREDITS — Betting on UFC 146: Dos Santos vs. Mir