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Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for July 14. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Miles Mikolas Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (-120, DraftKings)
Mikolas is enjoying a standout season, currently in the 95th percentile for walk rate. He’s consistently throwing strikes, with an impressive 56.3% of his pitches located in the strike zone and achieving 70.7% first-pitch strikes. This precision has led to him walking one or fewer batters in 13 out of his 19 starts this season, which includes a remarkable run of 7 out of his last 8 outings.
In his upcoming game, Mikolas draws a favorable matchup against the Chicago Cubs, a team that ranks fourth lowest in walk rate since the start of the month. This trend indicates that the Cubs have been aggressive at the plate, which plays right into Mikolas’ strengths.
Moreover, Mikolas has a strong history against Cubs hitters, having walked only 5 batters in 174 plate appearances, resulting in a mere 2.9% walk rate. This track record highlights his ability to keep hitters off base. The absence of Cody Bellinger from the lineup also benefits Mikolas, as Bellinger has been a solid contributor in drawing walks and putting pressure on pitchers.
Nick Lodolo Over 16.5 Pitching Outs Recorded (+100, DraftKings)
Nick Lodolo has gone over 16 pitching outs in 8 of his 13 games this season, which is about 62%. While he has struggled at home, only hitting this mark in 3 of 8 starts, it’s worth noting that his misses have come against stronger teams against left-handed pitchers, such as Philadelphia, Baltimore, St. Louis, Boston, and even a rain delay against Colorado. Currently, Lodolo is -174 to finish under a 2.5 ERA, and when he allows 2 or fewer earned runs, he has gone over 16.5 outs in 7 out of 8 games.
The Miami Marlins have allowed 16 out of their last 25 left-handed starters to exceed 16 pitching outs. Some notable pitchers who missed include Patrick Corbin, Mitchell Parker (before his leash was extended), Sean Manaea, Matthew Liberatore, and Blake Walston. In the last 30 days, Miami has recorded the 3rd lowest wRC+ against lefties at just 75. During this period, they also rank 5th in both walk percentage and on-base percentage, indicating they are not performing well as a team.
The two pitchers most similar to Lodolo in terms of pitch velocity and movement that Miami has faced recently are Chris Sale and Robert Gasser. Sale went 7 innings against them, while Gasser pitched 6 innings.
NRFI Bet of the Day
Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays Under 0.5 1st Inning Runs (-115, DraftKings)
Ryan Pepiot is taking the mound for the Tampa Bay Rays and has a solid NRFI record of 10-6 this season. He faces a Cleveland Guardians team that has remained scoreless in 75% of their first innings on the road. Pepiot ranks in the 71st percentile for expected batting average (xBA), 83rd percentile for Whiff rate, and 82nd percentile for strikeout percentage (K%). Over the last two weeks, Cleveland sits 25th in on-base percentage (OBP) and 23rd in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. Additionally, they rank 22nd in walk rate against righties over the past month.
On the other side, Ben Lively is pitching for the Guardians and boasts an impressive 14-1 record on NRFI bets this season, including 8-1 on the road. He faces a Rays lineup that has also been scoreless in 74% of their first innings at home this year. Tampa Bay ranks 29th in wRC+ and 27th in OBP against righties over the last two weeks, along with having the 7th highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers in the past month. Lively is performing well too, ranking in the 69th percentile for expected ERA (xERA) and 65th percentile for xBA.
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