Week 11 NFL Picks, Odds & Betting Lines

OK, so maybe our head got a little big after a winning Week 10. Maybe the ego inflated a bit and we had to turn sideways to slither through the front door.

Or maybe it just didn’t go our way. We were on the wrong side of a lopsided Monday Night Football game between the Panthers and the Eagles and turned out a 6-7 record for Week 10.

Overall we still stand at a winning 74-70-2 overall record heading in to an important Week 11. As the bye weeks are starting to come to an end, let’s get back on the right track.

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Buffalo at Miami (-5)

This one is for all the marbles. This one is for the whole ball of wax. Two 5-4 teams square off in South Florida for the ultimate division showdown. The winner increases its chances to make the playoffs, while the loser stands 5-5 and on the outside looking in on a loaded AFC playoff race. The Bills have won 3 straight against Miami. The Dolphins know that. Leodis McKelvin chirped off after the Bills’ Week 10 loss about how they’d beat Miami’s “rear end.” The Dolphins heard it. It’s going to come down to who wants it more in this game. The Kyle Orton magic runs out and the Dolphins defend their home turf.

THE PICK: Dolphins (-5)

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Houston at Cleveland (-3)

The Texans are off a bye and the Browns are off a blowout win with 10 days of rest. Both teams want to run the football and play good defense. Arian Foster has been banged up most of the season, but has still shown he can carry a load when needed. The Texans named Ryan Mallett their starting quarterback for this game and he’ll be making his first professional start. The Browns can smell the playoffs and it starts with this game at home, defending the dog pound.

THE PICK: Browns (-3)

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Minnesota at Chicago (-3)

The Bears are a MESS. Blown out in two straight games giving up a million points and a million Lambeau leaps. They can’t play defense right now and frankly their offense – which is supposed to be their strong suit – isn’t producing either. Teddy Bridgewater and the Vikings come in at 4-5 with a sliver of playoff hope still alive and Adrian Peterson waiting to be reinstated. It’s tough to back the Bears right now as it looks like they have quit on Coach Trestman.

THE PICK: Vikings (+3)

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Philadelphia at Green Bay (-5.5)

This game may be the best game to watch for entertainment purposes. Both teams score points in bunches and don’t play a whole lot of defense. Sanchez looked good on Monday night against a hapless Panthers defense, but can he keep up this good play on the road in a hostile environment needing to score 30+ points to keep up with Rodgers and company? The move of Clay Matthews to inside linebacker has looked great so far for the Packers as he’s able to utilize his playmaking ability more.

THE PICK: Packers (-5.5)

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Seattle at Kansas City (-1.5)

In this game we have the Seattle Seahawks on the road against a good team who is as hot as the sun getting points. The Seahawks haven’t been underdogs very often this year so Vegas likes the Chiefs here and if you think Seattle has a home field advantage, wait until you hear this Arrowhead crowd on Sunday. Another 1 pm start will have the Seahawks starting slow and playing from behind. Alex Smith is the perfect quarterback against Seattle’s aggressive defense. He doesn’t take chances an moves the chains.

THE PICK: Chiefs (-1.5)

Atlanta at Carolina (-1.5)

This game stinks. Both teams stink. Both teams’ offensive lines are horrid. Atlanta has way more playmakers and is a game out of first despite being 3-6! The Panthers look defeated as they showed little effort on Monday night and Cam Newton is clearly playing hurt.

THE PICK: Falcons (+1.5)

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Cincinnati at New Orleans (-7)

The Bengals have had 10 days to compose themselves and get over a thrashing at home to the hands of the Cleveland Browns. Andy Dalton was historically bad in Week 10 and he’ll have to be really great to keep up with the Saints on offense. New Orleans blew a game against San Francisco they had pretty much in the bag and will need this one to get back to .500 and keep their slim lead on the NFC South alive. You need a good defense to go in to the Superdome and beat Drew Brees. The Bengals don’t.

THE PICK: Saints (-7)

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Tampa Bay at Washington (-7)

Washington has beaten one time this season by more than seven points and it was Week 2 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Tampa Bay is just as bad as Jacksonville, but they’re still trying. Robert Griffin is still working off the rust and both teams are playing for pride more than playoffs at this point. What the hell, back the Bucs and hope McCown and the weapons he has can keep this game close.

THE PICK: Bucs (+7)

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Denver (-9.5) at St. Louis

Shaun Hill was named starter for the Rams in this game. The only way the Rams cover here is if Denver loses focus and allows them to stay close or Jeff Fisher digs deep in to the old bags of tricks on special teams and offense to keep Denver’s offense off the field. Peyton Manning is back in a dome and he’s been pretty damn good inside for his career.

THE PICK: Broncos (-9.5)

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San Francisco (-4) at N.Y. Giants

Both teams were on the road last week. One team won in the Superdome and the other was blown out in Seattle. San Francisco knows they need to keep winning in order to keep pace with Arizona and Seattle in the division as well as in the wild card race in the landscape of the NFC. But will the 1 pm start on the East Coast hurt the 49ers? They’ll more than likely start slow in this game. The Giants have the backdoor as well at home.

THE PICK: Giants (+4)

Oakland at San Diego (-10)

Oakland is historically bad in all facets of the game. Lose this game and that makes 16 in a row, but it’s a divisional game on the West Coast against a team who is really struggling even off the bye. The Chargers get Ryan Mathews back from injury, which should bolster their run game enough to keep the pass rush off Phil Rivers. Oakland played San Diego tough in the game at Oakland earlier this year, losing 31-28, so maybe they keep this divisional game close or backdoor the cover.

THE PICK: Raiders (+10)

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Detroit at Arizona (-2)

Drew Stanton or Matt Stafford? We’ll bet on the latter quarterback and take our chances there. Detroit boasts the #1 overall ranked defense in football, which will make life tough for Drew Stanton as the Cardinals will not be able to run the ball against Ndamukong Suh and that Lions’ front seven.

THE PICK: Lions (+2)

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New England at Indianapolis (-3)

What a great game this one is. The savvy veteran in Tom Brady against the up-and-coming face of the NFL in Andrew Luck square off in Indianapolis. Both teams are off byes so both teams should be prepared and rested. This game is important for AFC home field advantage going forward so we’d expect a top notch effort from Luck and the Colts.

THE PICK: Colts (-3)

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Pittsburgh (-5.5) at Tennessee

Can the Steelers really lose two games in a row to really bad football teams? Crazy stat that may mean nothing but is good to hear is that the Steelers own the best record on Monday Night Football all-time at 25-5. Tennessee quarterback Zach Mettenberger hasn’t shown much in his two starts to warrant backing the Titans. We’d rather put our money in the hands of Big Ben and a bounce back from the Steelers.

THE PICK: Steelers (-5.5)

Best of luck!

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