NFL Betting Lines, Odds & Picks: Week 17

Well here we are, team. Week 17 has arrived and the NFL regular season finale is upon us. It’s been a fun ride during these last four months, as we’ve gone through the highs and lows of handicapping the NFL, a week-to-week league with constant parity.

For the most part you can say we’ve done well if you’ve followed us all season long. We started last weekend with a 3-0 Thursday and Saturday showing. Continued success up to 5-0 on Sunday, but went 3-8 down the stretch on our picks to finish Week 16 a mediocre 8-8.

Did not lose, but did not win.

That moves our overall record to 123-112-4, which is a great record to have picking every game against the spread this year. Once again, thanks for the follow, the comments and hopefully the successful handicapping picks as we look to close the 2014 NFL regular season with a bang.

Here we go…

Detroit at Green Bay (-7.5)

The Lions held Aaron Rodgers and that high-flying Packers to 223 yards in their Week 3 19-7 triumph. That game was almost four months ago and prompted Rodgers to tell the Packers fans to “R-E-L-A-X.” The Packers are a different animal at home (7-0) and have blown teams out all year long. Matt Stafford has struggled in his last two games against divisional opponents, but his team managed wins against Teddy Bridgewater and Jimmy Clausen. Chance to win the division title and move up to the 2 seed in the NFL with a bye? Rodgers and company gets it done.

THE PICK: Packers (-7.5)

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Jacksonville at Houston (-9.5)

Houston needs this game if they want to have any chance to make the playoffs. Their defense hassled Joe Flacco all game long last week as he played one of his worst games in a long time against that Houston defense. Jacksonville got their third win last week at home against Tennessee, but we doubt they want to win this one. A fourth win could move them out of the top 5 in the NFL draft next May. J.J. Watt will cement his candidacy for NFL MVP with another monster game this weekend.

THE PICK: Texans (-9.5)

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Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-3.5)

Divisional game. Week 17. For all the marbles. The Steelers and Bengals just squared off two weeks ago and Pittsburgh handed Cincinnati a bad loss at home. These two teams are very even and should even out on Sunday. The Bengals are off a great win at home against Denver and Andy Dalton didn’t even play all that great. Look for him to play better in this one and the result to be close either way.

THE PICK: Bengals (+3.5)

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Indianapolis (-7) at Tennessee

Tennessee is a bottom three team in football. They don’t want to win this game. There is no benefit from them winning this game. Indianapolis can’t move up in the playoff standings as either Pittsburgh or Cincinnati will finish with the third seed, so they may sit some starters. But we have to think Matt Hasselbeck can outplay any quarterback the Titans roll out there.

THE PICK: Colts (-7)

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Cleveland at Baltimore (-10)

Baltimore needs the game to have any chance at the playoffs. They are off a pathetic loss at Houston, as Joe Flacco played an atrocious game. Cleveland is not playing very well this month, losing their last four games and their offensive has gone extinct. The Ravens should heckle whoever Cleveland runs out there under center and win the game easily.

THE PICK: Ravens (-10)

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Buffalo at New England(-4.5)

This is where Week 17 gets tricky. New England has nothing to play for as they have locked up home field and the bye week for the postseason so we’d imagine Bill Belichick eases up a bit after the first quarter or first half and gets Brady and Gronk out of there verse a vicious Bills front four. The Bills are out of the playoffs, but they’d really like to finish 9-7 and beat their bitter rival Patriots.

THE PICK: Buffalo (+4.5)

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New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-6)

The Jets poured their hearts in to the Patriots game last week hoping to beat their rival and play spoiler on Belichick’s playoff seeding. But they fell in defeat and it will be tough to get back up for Miami this Sunday. Last time these two teams played on Monday night the Jets ran for 277 yards on the ground. We’d imagine Miami to be prepared for a rushing attack and force Geno Smith to beat them, which he did last Week 17 to end Miami’s playoff hopes. If Miami likes their coach Joe Philbin and are excited he will be returning for 2015, then they’ll blow out New York.

THE PICK: Dolphins (-6)

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Carolina at Atlanta (-3)

After a Week 16 home win against Cleveland, the Carolina Panthers improved to 14-3 in December under head coach Ron Rivera. With reports that Steven Jackson is unlikely to play Sunday, the Falcons will be shorthanded at running back. These two teams always play tough, close games, as apparent in their Week 11 matchup where Atlanta won 19-17. Cam Newton is from Georgia, has played in the Georgia Dome and has won there before numerous times in college and pro. We won’t be shocked to see him and the Panthers play well tonight.

THE PICK:Panthers (+3)

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Chicago at Minnesota (-6)

Jay Cutler is the sacrifical lamb for this Week 17 matchup with Minnesota. The Vikings are playing hard to close the season as they had Miami beat and let the game slip away in the final minutes. Teddy Bridgewater is clearly the best rookie quarterback of this class and is playing well. We just can’t see Chicago showing up for this one as their season has been a disaster from the start.

THE PICK: Vikings (-6)

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San Diego at Kansas City (-1)

For San Diego, it’s win and get in. For Kansas City, it’s win and need help. They’ll have to win shorthanded as Chase Daniel has been named the starting quarterback for the game Sunday with Alex Smith ruled out. This would be “so Chargers” to lose this game on the road against a backup quarterback, which they almost did last year in week 17 to Chase Daniel and the Chiefs in San Diego. This year the game will be on the road – without Keenan Allen – in Kansas City and all the pressure will be on the Chargers.

THE PICK: Chiefs (-1)

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Philadelphia at New York Giants (2.5)

We feel really good about this line and game. Philly has nothing to play for as the Dallas win last week cemented their status as NFC East division champions. The Giants on the other hand are repeating 2013. Start off poorly and calm on like a train down the stretch to win meaningless games and keep Tom Coughlin around. If the Eagles put Bradley Fletcher on Odell Beckham Jr look out.

THE PICK: Giants (-2.5)

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Dallas (-5.5) at Washington

There isn’t much for Dallas to play for in this game as they already have the division locked and will be the 3 seed going in to the playoffs. We backed Washington last week when they played Philadelphia on Saturday night, so we’ll back them again here on the basis that Robert Griffin is out to prove the haters and his coach wrong. DeMarco Murray may not play the entire game as he’s still battling the hand injury. Romo is likely to come out too at some point.

THE PICK: Washington (+5.5)

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New Orleans (-4) at Tampa Bay

The Saints are out of it, believe it or not, after a terrible stretch of play in November and December. Tampa Bay probably wants to lose this game and lock up the first overall pick in the 2015 draft. However, the mojo in NOLA right now can’t be great as the Saints were a trendy Super Bowl pick and could end up losing 10 games this season in disappointing fashion. We’ll back Tampa here with the thought that they play hard to close out the season at home.

THE PICK: Bucs (+4)

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St. Louis at Seattle (-13)

Seattle has a chance to play for the first seed in the NFC playoffs and a bye. They lost to St. Louis earlier in the year, but we don’t see this happening this weekend. Seattle is too good at home and has too much at stake to overlook the Rams and slip up. The way St. Louis played defense at home against the Giants last week was concerning. They may have packed it in on the season. We’ll back the defending Super Bowl champs.

THE PICK: Seattle (-13)

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Arizona at San Francisco(-6

It was quite embarrassing that we backed Arizona last week against Seattle on prime time football. We’ve learned from that mistake. Drew Stanton is out for the season and Ryan Lindley will continue to start and continue to struggle as a quarterback in the NFL. Even with the 49ers struggles, Lindley could hand them the game and maybe the 49ers want to finish 8-8 for Harbaugh as he all but certainly departs after the season.

THE PICK: San Francisco (-6)

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Oakland at Denver (-14)

Denver needs the game for the second seed in the AFC. Oakland isn’t very good, but playing better of late. The Broncos are off a bad loss at Cincinnati and will lean on CJ Anderson in this game. The Raiders have won all three games at home this year and have yet to win on the road and have played noticably worse on the road.

THE PICK: Broncos (-14)

Good luck and enjoy the playoffs!

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