College Football Picks: Top 5 Best Bets Against the Spread Week 1

No. 3 Alabama Covers -25.5 Spread Against Louisville

It is not the most exciting pick, but it is the smart one. Nick Saban has been lethal in these kind of opening games at Alabama, winning 11 straight openers. Alabama has not just won these games, but dominated as the Crimson Tide has come away with a double-digit victory in every opener under Saban. Most recently, Alabama defeated Florida State 24-7, and essentially ended their title hopes before they even started. Many forget the matchup was No. 1 against No. 2, and was being billed as one of the top openers in college football history.

Back in 2016, Alabama defeated USC 52-6, and rolled Wisconsin 35-17 in 2015. Even if Louisville came in as a projected contender, the Cardinals would still have the cards stacked against them. Louisville does not lack talent, but they enter the season with a a lot of questions. Playing Alabama is not the way to get these questions answered, at least not in a positive way. The most pressing issue for Louisville is whether quarterback Jawon Pass can pick up where Lamar Jackson left off. While Pass was a promising high school recruit, he has only thrown 33 passes in his college career.

Playing Alabama is not a way for Pass to ease into being a starter. Alabama is not without their own questions, namely whether the quarterback controversy will have any impact on their season. What we do know is Alabama has a track record of answering these questions in a hurry, thanks to the talent and depth they are able to recruit each year. This year is no different with a lot of young players expected to step into key roles.

So far, Louisville's Bobby Petrino has played the role of confident coach leading up to the game.

“They’re a very good football team,” Petrino told USA Today. “They’ve got a great tradition. We’re excited to play them. It’s a great challenge, and we know that. But I’m going to tell you this: If we can get where we have every single guy on our team, every single coach on our team, to believe like I believe — because I believe we’re gonna go beat ’em — so I need everybody else to believe that. And we will go beat ’em.”

We have seen this act before as an opponent enters the opener with confidence, but Alabama has a way of stepping on their throats early. Alabama being favored by nearly four touchdowns may seem like a lot, but history tells us it is a smart bet. While Pass' dual-threat capabilities could offer Alabama some challenges, the speed of the Crimson Tide's defensive line gives them the ability to adjust to Louisville's new-look offense. Whether it is Tua Tagovailoa or Jalen Hurts at quarterback, both players are talented enough to have the Alabama offense firing at full speed. Louisville does not have the depth to be able to withstand Alabama's talent on both offense and defense for four quarters.

0 Comments