College football is back, and we're going to kickoff the season with the best picks against the spread for Week 1. Labor Day weekend has become the unofficial holiday of college football with games stretching all the way through Monday night. I'll break down my five best picks for this week, but I am also going to offer a few bonus predictions that just missed being included on this week's list. All odds listed are courtesy of OddsShark.
UCF takes on UConn with their winning streak on the line. The spread has moved from 16 points all the way up to 23, but I think the Knights still easily cover the spread. It is hard to enter the season with a chip on the shoulder with all UCF accomplished last season, but this team believes it should be ranked higher in the polls after winning all of their games one season ago. Connecticut is also severely over-matched in the contest.
New Mexico State is a 17.5 point underdog against Minnesota. The Aggies have one of the most underrated defenses in the country, and have the talent to match P.J. Fleck's offense. New Mexico State is a good bet against the spread.
Stanford is expected to be much improved this season with a loaded roster with NFL talent. The Cardinal is favored by 14.5 points against San Diego State. The Aztecs upset Stanford last season, but are not going to sneak up on them this time. SB Nation's Bill Connelly's projections give Stanford a 75 percent chance to win, and I like the Cardinal to cover the spread.
Washington State is just a three point favorite over Wyoming, who is entering the post-Josh Allen era. While I think Wyoming's defense is solid, the Cougs have enough talent on offense to cover this small spread. Look for Washington State to win comfortably.
Arizona will be mproved this season under new head coach Kevin Sumlin. The Wildcats are favored by 12 points against a BYU team that went 4-9 last season. Arizona has the most exciting quarterback in college football in Khalil Tate, who the Cougars defense will not be able to contain. Look for Arizona to win big in their home opener against BYU as they kick off the Sumlin era. Arizona Noel Mazzone spoke about how Tate can take the next step forward this season.
“When he stays in his progression, he’s been awesome,” Mazzone told Tucson.com. “But there’s that fine line. Sometimes he gets out of it and goes and does a little street stuff and just makes plays. I don’t want to coach that out of him. I still want that part. But at times I want him to stay within the boundaries of the offense.”
The following picks are based on the point spreads at the time this article was published. If you have any questions about games, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @JonDAdams. Picks are listed in order of confidence from least to greatest. Click the next arrow to see my best college football picks against the spread for Week 1.
No. 5 Texas Covers -13 Spread Over Maryland
It has been a turbulent off-season for Maryland. It does not get easier for the Terps once the season starts as they open with Texas. With all the team has been through in the past couple months, it is hard to imagine Maryland getting off to a great start. Maryland was already coming off a difficult 4-8 season in 2017. Matt Canada takes over a program that is still dealing with a lot. The Washington Post details what Canada is inheriting.
"Canada will inherit a group of players still grieving the death of offensive lineman Jordan McNair following a workout, a group that must now finish camp amid the distractions of explosive news reports Friday that outlined a toxic culture within the program, which led to the school putting Durkin, strength coach Rick Court and head trainer Wes Robinson on leave. A fourth staff member, director of athletic training Steve Nordwall, also reportedly was put on leave," The Washington Posts noted.
As for Texas, they are hoping to take the next step forward under Tom Herman after going 7-6 last season. Quarterback Sam Ehlinger is expected to begin the season at the Longhorns starting quarterback. Ehlinger started six games for Texas last season. He has a couple big receiving targets in Collin Johnson and Lil'Jordan Humphrey that could make the Texas offense tough to deal with this season. Linebacker Gary Johnson is expected to fill the void Malik Jefferson left behind after he headed to the NFL.
Texas is favored by nearly two touchdowns, and I expect the Longhorns to cruise to victory. Texas starts out ranked in the top 25 at No. 23, and a blowout win could help them move up in the polls. While I don't expect Texas to compete for a Big 12 title this season, I do think they are a lot more talented than Maryland. The Longhorns had the benefit of having a normal off-season, while Maryland is dealing with so many things away from football that it will be hard for 18 to 22 year olds to be able to put behind them.
No. 4 FAU Covers +21 Spread Over Oklahoma
FAU is no longer flying under the radar thanks to Lane Kiffin turning around the program last season. If DeAndre Johnson can hold onto the starting quarterback position, it is a good sign for the Owls. You may remember Johnson from his time at Florida State, as well as starring on the Netflix show Last Chance U. Johnson was a highly anticipated transfer last season, but blood cots kept him out for most of the season. Johnson's dual-threat capabilities combined with Kiffin's offense could be a lethal combination.
The Owls also have one of the top running backs in the country in Devin Singletary, who scored a gaudy 32 touchdowns last season. Singletary rushed for 1,920 yards, and gives FAU a bowling ball in the backfield. In addition to Singletary, Johnson has some solid receiving weapons with receiver Deandre McNeal along with tight end Harrison Bryant, who should see an increased role in the offense this season.
As for Oklahoma, the Sooners return plenty of weapons, but are missing the one that matters most. Heisman trophy winner Baker Mayfield is now with the Browns, and the Sooners look to replace him at quarterback with Kyler Murray. Murray's speed does give Oklahoma more of a dual threat, but Murray is not the passer that Mayfield was. The OddsShark computer not only likes FAU to cover, but is picking the Owls to win outright. The computer is projecting a 44.8-42.6 FAU victory.
I'm not as optimistic FAU will win the game, but I do think they cover the large spread. With the point total at 68, the over is also a really nice play in this matchup. Oklahoma's running back duo of Rodney Anderson and Trey Sermon is one of the best in the country. Their presence should help ease Murray's transition. It also gives Oklahoma the opportunity to run the read option and other offensive plays that take advantage of having a mobile quarterback. That said, FAU has enough speed on defense to not be overwhelmed by Oklahoma. I just don't see them having enough to pull off a complete upset, but like Kiffin's Owls against the spread. Kiffin understands the magnitude of this matchup for an upstart program like FAU.
"This is different than the normal game — like when we were at Alabama playing a Group of 5, when there is no buildup," Kiffin said per OU Daily. "This one seems to have a lot of buildup — national television, we're on a 10-game win streak, so I don't think there's any way they're going to overlook us."
No. 3 Alabama Covers -25.5 Spread Against Louisville
It is not the most exciting pick, but it is the smart one. Nick Saban has been lethal in these kind of opening games at Alabama, winning 11 straight openers. Alabama has not just won these games, but dominated as the Crimson Tide has come away with a double-digit victory in every opener under Saban. Most recently, Alabama defeated Florida State 24-7, and essentially ended their title hopes before they even started. Many forget the matchup was No. 1 against No. 2, and was being billed as one of the top openers in college football history.
Back in 2016, Alabama defeated USC 52-6, and rolled Wisconsin 35-17 in 2015. Even if Louisville came in as a projected contender, the Cardinals would still have the cards stacked against them. Louisville does not lack talent, but they enter the season with a a lot of questions. Playing Alabama is not the way to get these questions answered, at least not in a positive way. The most pressing issue for Louisville is whether quarterback Jawon Pass can pick up where Lamar Jackson left off. While Pass was a promising high school recruit, he has only thrown 33 passes in his college career.
Playing Alabama is not a way for Pass to ease into being a starter. Alabama is not without their own questions, namely whether the quarterback controversy will have any impact on their season. What we do know is Alabama has a track record of answering these questions in a hurry, thanks to the talent and depth they are able to recruit each year. This year is no different with a lot of young players expected to step into key roles.
So far, Louisville's Bobby Petrino has played the role of confident coach leading up to the game.
“They’re a very good football team,” Petrino told USA Today. “They’ve got a great tradition. We’re excited to play them. It’s a great challenge, and we know that. But I’m going to tell you this: If we can get where we have every single guy on our team, every single coach on our team, to believe like I believe — because I believe we’re gonna go beat ’em — so I need everybody else to believe that. And we will go beat ’em.”
We have seen this act before as an opponent enters the opener with confidence, but Alabama has a way of stepping on their throats early. Alabama being favored by nearly four touchdowns may seem like a lot, but history tells us it is a smart bet. While Pass' dual-threat capabilities could offer Alabama some challenges, the speed of the Crimson Tide's defensive line gives them the ability to adjust to Louisville's new-look offense. Whether it is Tua Tagovailoa or Jalen Hurts at quarterback, both players are talented enough to have the Alabama offense firing at full speed. Louisville does not have the depth to be able to withstand Alabama's talent on both offense and defense for four quarters.
No. 2 Miami Covers -2.5 Spread Over LSU
One of the benefits of the Labor Day college football kickoff is it becomes an extended weekend showcase for the sport. It is the only show in town with the NFL still another week away from starting. Televisions will be filled from Thursday through Monday with prime college football matchups. LSU and Miami offer a rare Sunday night matchup featuring two storied programs.
Miami is a dark horse candidate to compete for an ACC title. If Clemson has a misstep, the Hurricanes have the best chance of any team in the conference to capitalize. After a red-hot start in 2017, Miami struggled down the stretch, but the team returns a good portion of the players that helped them have success last season. Quarterback Malik Rosier is back for another year, and offers the Hurricanes dual threat capabilities thanks to his ability to run with the football.
Last season, Miami was known for their defense and their Turnover Chain swag. For 2018, the offense has a chance to catch up to its defense. Rosier gets star wide receiver Ahmmon Richards back, who missed the end of last season with an injury. The Hurricanes have a few young talented running backs, but will likely start the season relying on veteran Travis Homer. Miami coach Mark Richt understands the difficulty in facing LSU is their defensive identity.
"The problem is not the scheme, the problem is the dudes," Richt told NOLA.com. "It's the dudes, not the coaches. The coaches can get the dudes, they're the smart ones."
While LSU has plenty of talent on defense, I have concerns about their offense. LSU had top running backs Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice to rely on the past several seasons, but the run games has question marks now that Guice is in the NFL. In what has become a common theme in Baton Rouge, there are also questions surrounding the quarterback position. LSU coach Ed Orgeron noted how much of a challenge his team faces against Miami.
“You start offseason workouts and when you open up with Miami, everybody walks in with their chests out and their eyes up and they are ready to go," Orgeron explained to 247 Sports. "I have a lot of respect for coach Richt. He has brought ‘The U’ back. I coached at the University of Miami for four years and I know exactly what the temperament is down there and the type of football players that they have. It is going to be a tremendous challenge.”
The questions around LSU's offense combined with my confidence in Miami makes the Hurricanes a strong pick against the meager spread. Miami is also a solid pick for futures bets as well.
No. 1 Michigan Covers -1.5 Spread Against Notre Dame
Michigan is my pick to win the Big Ten this season, and reach the College Football Playoff. John Harbaugh finally has a quality quarterback to build his program around thanks to Ole Miss transfer Shea Patterson. The quarterback had a great start to his career then injuries and instability impacted the rest of his time at Ole Miss. Harbaugh has turned around the Michigan program, but has been unable to make the team a title contender. This year, that changes thanks to the offense being able to match the consistency of the defense in 2018.
Patterson has two young receivers entering their sophomore season in Tarik Black and Donovan People-Jones. A broken left foot sidelined Black for most of his freshman season, but he has a chance to be the Wolverines top receiving option this season. Michigan's defense is stacked thanks to future NFL players like Rashan Gary and Chase Winovich. While Michigan's offense will not resemble an uptempo Air Raid attack, the Wolverines are expected to open up the offense thanks to their new quarterback.
As for Notre Dame, they enter this season with a lot of hype thanks to their run last season, but I have questions over whether they can replicate their 2017 success. Brandon Wimbush still has a lot to prove at quarterback, and would need to take a big step forward for the Irish to be a contender this season. Notre Dame did go 8-5 against the spread last season, while Michigan was just 5-7-1. These numbers are not extremely relevant to 2018, as we are looking at different teams for this season.
Michigan is a slight favorite against Notre Dame, and it would not be surprising if the Irish are favored at some books by kickoff time. Notre Dame has one of the larger fan bases, and we could see the public money go their way, especially on opening weekend. I expect the Irish to be overwhelmed on both sides of the ball as Michigan cruises to a win in the opener. Look for Patterson to have a coming out party as college football fans reacquaint themselves with the former star. Patterson was one of the best high school quarterbacks in the country heading into Oxford, and few could have predicted the kind of tailspin Ole Miss would have with the fall of Hugh Freeze. Michigan over Notre Dame is my favorite pick of the week thanks to my optimism on the Wolverines chances in 2018.
College Football Picks: Top 5 Best Bets Against the Spread Week 1