College Football Picks: Top 5 Best Bets Against the Spread Week 1

No. 2 Miami Covers -2.5 Spread Over LSU

One of the benefits of the Labor Day college football kickoff is it becomes an extended weekend showcase for the sport. It is the only show in town with the NFL still another week away from starting. Televisions will be filled from Thursday through Monday with prime college football matchups. LSU and Miami offer a rare Sunday night matchup featuring two storied programs.

Miami is a dark horse candidate to compete for an ACC title. If Clemson has a misstep, the Hurricanes have the best chance of any team in the conference to capitalize. After a red-hot start in 2017, Miami struggled down the stretch, but the team returns a good portion of the players that helped them have success last season. Quarterback Malik Rosier is back for another year, and offers the Hurricanes dual threat capabilities thanks to his ability to run with the football.

Last season, Miami was known for their defense and their Turnover Chain swag. For 2018, the offense has a chance to catch up to its defense. Rosier gets star wide receiver Ahmmon Richards back, who missed the end of last season with an injury. The Hurricanes have a few young talented running backs, but will likely start the season relying on veteran Travis Homer. Miami coach Mark Richt understands the difficulty in facing LSU is their defensive identity.

"The problem is not the scheme, the problem is the dudes," Richt told NOLA.com. "It's the dudes, not the coaches. The coaches can get the dudes, they're the smart ones."

While LSU has plenty of talent on defense, I have concerns about their offense. LSU had top running backs Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice to rely on the past several seasons, but the run games has question marks now that Guice is in the NFL. In what has become a common theme in Baton Rouge, there are also questions surrounding the quarterback position. LSU coach Ed Orgeron noted how much of a challenge his team faces against Miami.
“You start offseason workouts and when you open up with Miami, everybody walks in with their chests out and their eyes up and they are ready to go," Orgeron explained to 247 Sports. "I have a lot of respect for coach Richt. He has brought ‘The U’ back. I coached at the University of Miami for four years and I know exactly what the temperament is down there and the type of football players that they have. It is going to be a tremendous challenge.”

The questions around LSU's offense combined with my confidence in Miami makes the Hurricanes a strong pick against the meager spread. Miami is also a solid pick for futures bets as well.

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