Getty Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes
Week 4 of the 2018 NFL season is nearly in the books, but before it wraps up completely, we get an always-fun AFC West battle between the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos. With Patrick Mahomes lighting up the league to the tune of 13 touchdown passes and no interceptions through three games, the big question is whether the Broncos can slow him down.
For fantasy football players, Monday Night Football features a few special treats on DraftKings. The DFS site is offering a $1.4 million guaranteed showdown game with a $10 entry, which will hand out $250,000 to first place. It’s going to be a fun one, but even beyond that, they’re featuring a variety of options at all buy-in levels.
This includes a $33 game with $20,000 to first place and a $3 game with 20-max entries that will pay out a cool $10,000 to the winner. With all the options on tap, I’m going to break down an optimal lineup for the game which features a mixture of both safe and risky plays, which can be used in a variety of different games.
*Note: With 150-max entry games such as the $1.4 million guarantee, you’ll want to take a few more risks. I’m building the below lineup with the goal of hitting on one or two high-upside, low-owned plays.
Before we dive into the lineup itself, though, here’s a quick look at how showdown games work.
- Six total players (one captain, five flex players)
- Captain selection costs 1.5 times standard salary but scores 1.5 times the standard points
- Can choose from any position (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, DST)
- $50,000 salary cap
- You can use more than one quarterback
Chiefs vs. Broncos Monday Night Football Optimal Lineup
- CAPTAIN: Travis Kelce ($14,400)
- Patrick Mahomes ($12,800)
- Case Keenum ($9,800)
- Demaryius Thomas ($7,400)
- Courtland Sutton ($3,600)
- Devontae Booker ($1,800)
Full disclosure here: I won’t blame you for using Jeff Heuerman over Devontae Booker ($200 more). There’s so much talk about replacing Jake Butt for the Broncos and how much work Heuerman is going to get that I think it’s going to make him pretty chalky overall. I’ll be using him in some lineups, but in this spot, I wanted the low ownership of Booker and his pass-catching ability.
While the Broncos have a full-blown running back committee, Booker has seen his percentage of offensive snaps increase in each of the past three weeks, per Football Outsiders. While last week was surely helped by Phillip Lindsay getting ejected, he still played 33 percent the week before and is the best pass-catching back on the roster.
Why does that matter? Well, the Chiefs have been atrocious against running backs who can catch passes. On the season, they’ve given up 334 receiving yards and two touchdowns to opposing backs, which is nearly 80 more yards than the second-closest team … and most have played one more game than the Chiefs to this point.
That is absolutely painful, and if Booker just catches a few passes he’ll easily pay off his price tag. If he catches a few passes and breaks one? You just broke the slate open.
Moving forward, I envision this game featuring plenty of points, so I want players who can find the end zone, and focused on trying to get both quarterbacks in. The matchup is exceptional for Case Keenum while Patrick Mahomes looks unstoppable at this point. I won’t overthink these two in most lineups, although I won’t go with the two-quarterback set in every spot.
Travis Kelce is probably my favorite play on the slate. Not only have the Broncos given up 236 yards and one touchdown to tight ends (none of which are on Kelce’s level), but he’s been great against Denver in his career.
Over seven games, Kelce has caught 42 passes for 605 yards and two touchdowns, per StatMuse. With Mahomes looking Kelce’s way 20 times in the past two games, I’ll watch as he continues to funnel looks to one of the games must athletic and exciting tight ends.
Demaryius Thomas costs $1,800 less than Emmanuel Sanders and is expected to draw a much easier matchup. Sanders will see quite a bit of Kendall Fuller, at least while in the slot, and I think this spot has breakout written all over it for Thomas. He’s seen the most targets of any player on the roster, and that’s going to pay off at some point – so why not in a high-scoring primetime game at home?
As for Courtland Sutton, he’s a guy who’s painfully talented and has flashed his upside at points this season. And the real fun begins when you see that he played 82 percent of the Broncos’ offensive snaps in Week 2 and 78 percent in Week 3. I have Sutton in captain consideration due to his price and potential to explode in a spot like this.
Along with the other positives for Sutton, I’ll just state the obvious that the Chiefs defense really isn’t very good. Against wideouts, they’ve given up five touchdowns and 506 yards in three games. I love pairing Keenum with Thomas and Sutton in a few spots.
Additional Notes & Intriguing Pivots
I’ll be using Jeff Heuerman as stated above and have no problem with it especially in cash or single entries. Sticking with the Broncos side, I believe Phillip Lindsay is a fine play, and if he starts cooking the team seems to stick with him as the game rolls on. Based on pure upside and his connection with Keenum, I think Emmanuel Sanders is a strong play in tournaments, even with the tough matchup he’ll face sporadically.
Tyreek Hill is a player who needs to be in big tournaments based purely on upside and the fact that he can turn four targets into 100 yards and two touchdowns. The upside is unbelievable and while the matchup isn’t the easiest on paper, we’d be crazy not to scatter him around tournaments at least a bit.
Finally, a few other names I’d spread around in tournaments include Sammy Watkins, although I’m not thrilled about him, Demetrius Harris (cheap) and DaeSean Hamilton (cheap). Both kickers are also fine considering the expected point total.
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