College Football Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread Week 14

No. 2 Georgia Covers +13 Spread vs. Alabama in SEC Championship

It is no surprise Alabama is a heavy favorite against Georgia in the SEC title game. Once you dig deeper there are reasons to think this game will be closer than many expect.

While this will be the furthest thing from Nick Saban's mindset, Alabama is likely going to make the College Football Playoff regardless of the outcome of this matchup. Georgia needs to win the game to have a good chance to make the postseason.

While there are a few different players on both teams compared to last season, Alabama needed a comeback overtime victory to beat Georgia in the national championship game. The Bulldogs defense will have to contend with a much more potent group of Crimson Tide wide receivers in this matchup. Georgia will also have to face Tua Tagovailoa for all four quarters this time around, not just the second half.

According to OddsShark, this marks the first game this season Georgia has entered as an underdog. The Bulldogs are a respectable 7-5 against the spread, while Alabama is 8-4. Heading into the contest, Saban called this game the most challenging of the year.

“I think the SEC is a very good league, for the team to go undefeated is quite an accomplishment,” Saban explained to Dawg Nation. “But it really doesn’t mean anything if we can’t take advantage of the opportunity that we have next week in the SEC Championship Game, and obviously Georgia is a very, very good team...They’ve got some really impressive wins, (and) they’re ranked very highly in a lot of categories, and this will be the most challenging game that we have all year.”

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Georgia Has Looked Like a Different Team Since Their Loss to LSU

Since losing to LSU, Georgia has won each of their last five games by 17 or more points. Bulldogs quarterback Jake Fromm appears to be more confident as well. Fromm originally committed to Alabama before flipping to Georgia. The Bulldogs quarterback had a solid outing in the title game against Bama a year ago.

Georgia head coach Kirby Smart believes Fromm will be even more prepared this year since he is closing in on the end of his second college season.

“But this year is a different year,” Smart explained to WSBTV. “The fact that he’s played (12 games) has more to do with it than who we played. The fact he’s played and gotten experience, that he’s gone against our defense all spring, all fall. … That’s more valuable than just playing Alabama. But the fact that he played against them last year, sometimes that helps.”

This is not a money line situation where I think Georgia will win outright, but I do think the Bulldogs will hang close with Alabama. Since their loss to LSU, Georgia has flown under the radar, but they are one of the most complete teams in college football. Look for a close SEC championship in Atlanta as we see Georgia-Alabama round two as Georgia covers the big spread.

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