The 2019 NFL playoffs may have favorites, but even the surest predictions leave room for unpredictability. We are going to not only break down the Wild Card matchups but provide an early prediction for Super Bowl 2019.
The latest Five Thirty Eight projections have the Saints as the slight favorite with a 21 percent chance to win the Super Bowl. Kansas City is next in line at 20 percent. The Patriots (14 percent) and Rams (13 percent) round out the top four in the projections. Baltimore is the underdog with the best chance to win Super Bowl LIII at six percent.
There are plenty of storylines heading into Wild Card weekend with quite a few entertaining matchups. Andrew Luck and Deshaun Watson are the key figures in the Colts-Texans game. Luck made his way back to playoffs after being sidelined all of last season with a shoulder injury. After leading Clemson to a national title in college, Watson is playing in his first NFL playoff game.
Watson along with J.J. Watt both missed a good portion of last season as they recovered from injuries. Both players imagined this moment when they were rehabbing prior to the season.
“We talked about times like this when we were in the training room, what we wanted to accomplish and what we were working toward,” Watt said per the Texans website. “So, for it to be where we are now and to have everything in front of us, it feels really good. I think that we can both look back at all the work and all the tough times that we had and be happy and proud of where we’re at now.”
The Cowboys and Seahawks square off on Saturday in primetime. Their previous games have been close matchups and this week's game expects to be no different. Both teams are similar, relying on stingy defense and a strong rushing attack to win games.
The Story of the NFL Regular Season Has Been High-Powered Offenses, & We Will See If These Units Can Hold Up in the Playoffs
The regular season has been defined by explosive offenses with the success of teams like the Chiefs, Rams and Saints. The common cliche in the NFL playoffs has been "Defense wins championships."
This mantra will be put to the test in the postseason with three of the top four teams relying on explosive offenses to win games. There are also teams like the Bears and Ravens that are looking to win with the opposite approach, relying on stout defenses to attempt to shut these offenses down.
The eventual champion is likely the team that can provide the right combination of offense and defense rather than being one dimensional.
The Saints, Rams & Chiefs Are the Super Bowl Favorites
The Saints (+240), Rams (+425) and Chiefs (+470) are the top three favorites to win the 2019 Super Bowl per OddsShark. The Chiefs may be third in the odds, but only one of the Rams and Saints can make the Super Bowl. Kansas City is the favorite to come out of the AFC followed by the Patriots at +650.
Here's a look at my NFL picks against the spread for Wild Card weekend, along with my Super Bowl prediction as the playoffs begin. All odds listed are courtesy of OddsShark and are subject to change. Click the next arrow to see my predictions for the NFL playoffs.
Seahawks Cover +1.5 Point Spread Over Cowboys
This is a rematch of a Week 3 matchup where the Seahawks were victorious. Two big differences for the Seahawks this time around. They won't have the Seattle crowd behind them, and Earl Thomas was lost for the season just a few weeks after his dominant performance against the Cowboys. Dallas also has Amari Cooper now who has played a big role in the Cowboys offensive turnaround.
Fans should expect a close game, but this is a better matchup for Seattle than it would have been if they had to travel to Chicago. How can the Seahawks pull of the season sweep?
Seattle has a defense that can slow down the Cowboys offense, while having multiple running backs that can find success against Dallas. Pete Carroll believes the earlier meeting between the two teams provided a blueprint for how the Seahawks wanted to play the rest of the season.
“You know, we didn’t really kill it that day," Carroll told The News Tribune. "We had a hard game against those guys. I think Chris rushed for 32 times in that game...That wasn’t what became a little more standard, what we were shooting for later in the season. But it was a step in the right direction. The commitment came through.”
For as much as the Cowboys offense has looked better since acquiring Cooper, I still have questions about how they will perform against a high-level defense. Just a few weeks ago they laid an egg against the Colts.
Both teams have their deficiencies, but I trust the Seahawks a little more in what should be one of the most evenly matched contests of the weekend.
Eagles Cover +6 Spread Against the Bears
The Eagles are going to do their best to make this an ugly playoff game. With the way the Bears defense is playing, there is a good chance the Eagles have success making this happen in what could be a low-scoring affair. While I believe the Bears end up advancing, the Eagles should cover the six-point spread.
Philadelphia lost Carson Wentz, but the offense has looked good with Nick Foles behind center. Over the last three weeks, the Eagles have wins over the Texans and Rams. Philly has won five of their last six matchups. Eagles head coach Doug Pederson spoke about how the team plans to attack the vaunted Bears defense.
“Obviously the more guys you can get out on the route a little bit better, sometimes the ball out fast can sort of nullify a rush, which you saw early in the Rams game,” Pederson told NBC Sports. “So there's a fine line. You just have to mix it up. You're not always going to be in a position to chip guys like that. You're going to have to get guys out on the route just based on the situation of the game and the play call. Again, we don't go out of our way to necessarily design formations or different protections or anything like that, but we just have to be aware of where he is.”
Ultimately, the Eagles are going to have a difficult time scoring enough points to win the game. The Bears have enough big play guys to give them the edge in the matchup, but the Eagles experience should allow them to keep this close. Look for the Bears to win the game, but the Eagles to cover the sizable spread.
Colts Cover +1.5 Point Spread Over Texans
With a betting line this narrow, you should go with the team you think will win to cover the spread. With the way Indianapolis is playing, it is hard not to like the Colts in this matchup. The Colts also looked strong against the Texans less than a month ago. Andrew Luck is starting to look like the quarterback we saw when he first entered the league.
Luck noted he is enjoying the ride this season after being sidelined for so long with a shoulder injury.
"I'm having fun and that's the most important thing," Luck told the Associated Press. "The fact that we get to play another game in the playoffs, that's stinking awesome and I think a small part of us understands how special it's been so far. I've said this before, it's been fulfilling. But satisfied? No, not at all."
After starting the season 1-5, the Colts have won nine of their last 10 games including four straight matchups heading into the postseason. Houston started the season on a massive hot streak, but the Texans have looked mortal over the last month.
Luck's experience combined with the Colts top 10 defense gives Indianapolis the edge in this one as the Colts pull off the upset.
Ravens Cover -3 Point Spread Over Chargers
The Chargers are a tasty underdog given they have the better overall record than the Ravens, but have the higher seed thanks to the NFL rules placing division winners in the top four. While the Chargers have the better record, the Ravens have played better to close the season. Baltimore is simply a different team with Lamar Jackson at quarterback, winning six of their last seven games.
Jackson has been a big part of the Ravens' resurgence, but the rookie quarterback does not have to do it all on his own. Baltimore has the No. 2 ranked defense in the NFL allowing just 17.9 points per game. The Chargers offense can be explosive but have a much more difficult task heading into a cold weather environment.
We just saw this game a couple weeks ago, and the Ravens won handily despite being on the road. This time around the Ravens will host the matchup. The Ravens have essentially been in playoff-type games for weeks since they needed a win against the Browns in Week 17 to make it to the postseason.
Look for the Ravens to cover the three-point spread and head to either Kansas City or Foxborough next week for the Divisional Round. Jackson is about to make history as the youngest quarterback to start a playoff game, but Ravens head coach John Harbaugh is not worried about trusting him with the offense.
"Lamar's maturity has impressed me greatly. He's very mature," Harbaugh said per NFL.com. "I think you guys see it -- you see it when you interview him, players see it when he walks around. Like I said before, he's very comfortable with who he is. That's a sign of maturity for sure."
NFC Championship: No.1 Saints Over No. 2 Rams
The Bears are in the mix here, but I do not think they have enough offense to get past the Rams. Chicago took advantage of a poor Rams showing last month, but Sean McVay will be able to make the adjustments needed to reach the NFC Championship.
For the Saints, it is no cake walk to get to the conference title game. New Orleans was shut down earlier this season against the Cowboys, and the Seahawks would be able to give them a good matchup. Ultimately, the Saints balance will see them through to the next round.
The Rams looked overmatched in their matchup with the Saints earlier this season. Los Angeles gave up nearly 50 points to the Saints. The Rams have not looked like the same team without Cooper Kupp, and the offense is not as potent as it was earlier this season.
I see the Saints pulling off another win against the Rams in a highly entertaining NFC Championship matchup. Drew Brees has a great chance to get back to the Super Bowl with two potential playoff matchups coming in the Superdome. Brees noted that the Saints have tried to have a playoff mindset for a while now, so that they do not have to try to flip a switch once the postseason starts.
"It's not like, ‘oh it's time to crank it up now,’" Brees noted per the Saints website. "We've been cranking it up. I've had the same approach, had the same preparation, had that same process so that when these games come around it's to me I've been there. Been there done that, but of course just understanding that it is a single elimination tournament right? It's win or go home and, obviously, we want to win.”
AFC Championship: No. 1 Chiefs Over No. 4 Ravens
The Chiefs are not without their flaws, but Kansas City's offense combined with Arrowhead Stadium is going to be too much for the rest of the AFC to overcome. It also helps the Chiefs that the Patriots look the most vulnerable that they have in years. I have the Ravens pulling off an upset over the Patriots in the Divisional Round.
This may be Patrick Mahomes first NFL playoffs, but Mahomes has passed every test he has faced up until this point. Even if the Chiefs had to face the Patriots, I still think they have enough weapons to top New England. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid believes his quarterback is ready for the moment.
“Everything is a little faster in the playoffs, that’s how things go," Reid explained per Chiefs.com. "At the same time, he has to be himself and continue to lead and play like he has been doing. I don’t think he will have a problem with that. I think he understands that. He is wired the right way to handle all of it. The main thing is, let’s get in and get busy so you can allow yourself to perform at the level you have been and also continue to get better each and every week that you have that opportunity to.”
Super Bowl 2019 Pick: Saints Over Chiefs
Not entirely a bold pick, but things shape up nicely for the two No. 1 seeds to face off in the playoffs. It is no coincidence that both teams happen to have two of the biggest home-field advantages in the NFL. The two most likely MVP candidates will face off in Atlanta for Super Bowl LIII.
To win a Super Bowl, it takes having a great team combined with a bit of good fortune. The Saints securing the No. 1 seed was a massive deal because it means New Orleans will host both their playoff games, assuming they can get past the Divisional Round. Historically, the Saints offense with Drew Brees under center has performed better at home. The Superdome provides a real home field advantage for the Saints.
From there, the Super Bowl is also indoors. Not only is it indoors, but Atlanta is a short drive from the NOLA fan base. It also helps that the Saints are very familiar with Mercedes-Benz Stadium where they play the Falcons each season. Heading into the playoffs, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes spoke about how excited the team is to begin their postseason run.
“I think we feel that [expectations]," Mahomes noted per Chiefs.com. "You feel that in the locker room. You feel that from the leaders of this team. We know it’s going to take full effort the whole entire way. You can’t be satisfied with just being here, we want to capitalize on the opportunity to be here and having the number one seed, so we are excited for the opportunity. We really are. Everyone is pumped up and we are ready to go.”
The explosive Chiefs offense combined with Arrowhead Stadium gives Kansas City the best chance to come out of the AFC. The Chiefs have been the most dominant of any team in their conference.
The Chiefs defense is the team's weakest link, and Kansas City is going to find it difficult to slow down the Saints. They would be in good company as few teams have had success against the Saints this season. Not only is the Saints offense as explosive as ever, but the New Orleans defense has been solid especially against the run.
According to OddsShark, the Chiefs-Saints matchup is the most likely scenario with +425 odds. An argument could be made that the Chiefs have the path of least resistance given the top of the NFC looks a bit stronger this year than the AFC. However, the reasons outlined above is why I believe Brees will be hoisting his second Lombardi Trophy.
NFL Playoff Predictions 2019: Wild Card & Super Bowl Picks