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The Pac 12 race is down to two. Only Utah and Oregon have a realistic shot at making the College Football Playoff. The Ducks have won eight straight and are all the way up to No. 6 in the most recent College Football Playoff rankings. Oregon’s only loss this season came in the season opener when they blew a fourth-quarter lead in a 27-21 setback to Auburn. Arizona has been in freefall, losers of four straight, the Wildcats are in danger of missing out on a bowl berth for the third straight season. Arizona has a bit of a quarterback controversy brewing as head coach Kevin Sumlin has been non-committal on senior Khalil Tate or freshman Greg Gunnell getting the start under center.
We break down the line and offer our best bets and predictions for this matchup between two Pac 12 rivals.
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Arizona at Oregon Game Details
Date: Saturday, November 16
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Location: Autzen Stadium (Eugene, Oregon)
TV: ESPN
Spread: Oregon -27.5
Total: 68.5
*All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Line Movement
This line opened at Oregon -24.5 and has moved all the way to Oregon -27.5 at most books, according to VegasInsider.com. Most of the action in this game has come in on the home favorite, with 71% of the bets and 59% of the money on Oregon, according to The Action Network.
The total opened at 68.5 and has only moved up slightly, being offered at 69 at most books. The majority of the action has been on the over with 75% of the bets and 85% of the money.
Betting Trends
- Arizona is 2-6-1 ATS this season
- Oregon is 5-4 ATS this season
- Over is 6-3 in Arizona games this season
- Under is 5-4 in Oregon games this season
- Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings
- Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings
*All betting trends are courtesy of Covers
Prediction & Picks
I love Oregon’s defense in this matchup. The Ducks have been very stingy this season and are ranked second in the Pac 12 allowing just 15.8 points per game this season. Oregon also leads the conference with 26 sacks. Sacks have been a weakness for Arizona. The Wildcats are ranked 109th in the FBS allowing 2.78 sacks per game. I don’t think it matters who the Wildcats start at quarterback in this game, I expect the Ducks D to dominate. Ironically, this is also a big revenge spot for Oregon, as Arizona won this game in blowout fashion last year 44-15. In fact, the Wildcats have won three of the last five meetings. I think that added motivation only makes this more of an attractive pick for Oregon. The Ducks have scored a touchdown in 28 of their last 32 quarters, and I would be shocked if they didn’t score at least one in all four quarters in this game. Ducks steamroll. I also like the Wildcats team total under as I don’t see Arizona putting up too many points.
PICK: Oregon -27.5 (-110)
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Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith
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