Getty Cleveland Browns QB Baker Mayfield.
The Joe Flacco experiment might be already over in Denver. Brandon Allen will make his debut at quarterback on Sunday for the Broncos, filling in for the injured Flacco, who was placed on injured reserve early this week with a bulging disc in his neck.
Cleveland (2-5) opened as a one-point underdog earlier this week before news of the Flacco injury became public. Since it was announced that Brandon Allen would be the starter, the line has moved steadily in the Browns’ direction, with most books in Las Vegas offering Cleveland as four-point favorites, according to VegasInsider.com.
Denver (2-6) must not only replace Flacco but also wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders, who was traded to the San Francisco 49ers before the deadline. The complete overhaul to the Broncos offense has forced the betting public to fade the home team in this spot with 81-percent of the bets and 84-percent of the money coming in on Cleveland, according to The Action Network.
This will be one of the big decision games for the book this weekend with an overwhelming majority of the handle flowing towards the Browns. If Denver covers the number, it will go a long way towards determining whether or not the sportsbooks will be profitable this Sunday.
Follow the Heavy on Fantasy & Gambling for all the latest sports gambling news, trends, odds, and picks!
Game Details: Browns at Broncos
Date: Sunday, November 3
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Location: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver, Colorado)
TV: CBS
Spread: Broncos +4
Total: 39
*All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Betting Trends
- Browns are 2-5 ATS this season
- Broncos is 4-4 ATS this season
- Under is 4-3 in Browns games this season
- Under is 6-2 in Broncos games this season
- Broncos are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 home games
- Under is 10-1 in the last 11 Broncos home games
*All trends are courtesy of Covers
Prediction & Picks
Baker Mayfield has hit a sophomore slump. The quarterback has thrown twice as many interceptions (12) as touchdowns (six) and is only completing 57.6 percent of his passes this season. Nick Chubb has been a bright spot for Cleveland with 738 yards rushing but he continues to be plagued by turnovers. Chubb lost two fumbles in the 27-13 loss to the New England Patriots last Sunday. Denver is tough to back here, but considering all the money flowing towards Cleveland, this is strictly a “fade the public” and “fade Baker” play.
PICK: Broncos +4 (-110)
This is a trend play as the under has been consistently cashing for the Broncos at home over the past two seasons. The total has stayed under in 10 of the last 11 games played at Mile High. I think Denver’s defense puts forth an inspired effort to keep things close and both teams will rely heavily on the run to keep the clock moving.
PICK: Under 39 (-110)
The Browns rank 29th in the NFL against the run allowing 143.3 yards on the ground per game this season. This number seems awfully low for Lindsay considering the volume of touches he should receive on Sunday with a backup quarterback under center. I think Lindsay breaks one or two runs early and eclipses this number rather easily.
PICK: Phillip Lindsay Over 61.5 Rush Yards (-112)
READ NEXT: Buccaneers vs. Seahawks Prediction: Betting Line, Odds & Pick
Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith