Getty Baker Mayfield of the Cleveland Browns
The Miami Dolphins saw their two-game winning streak halted on Sunday in a 37-20 loss to the Buffalo Bills. Miami’s defense was gashed for 424 total yards including 168 on the ground. The Cleveland Browns will be playing for the first time since last Thursday’s brawl between Myles Garrett and Mason Rudolph. With Garrett suspended indefinitely, the Browns defensive line depth will be tested. Offensively, Cleveland will continue to rely on their superstar playmakers on the outside, Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry, who have escalated their play during the Browns’ two-game winning streak. Baker Mayfield is also trending upwards. The second-year quarterback has not thrown an interception in three straight games. A win on Sunday would officially vault Cleveland back into the AFC playoff picture.
We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for this matchup between the Dolphins and Browns.
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Dolphins vs. Browns Game Details
Date: Sunday, November 24
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Location: FirstEnergy Stadium (Cleveland, Ohio)
TV: CBS
Spread: Browns -10.5
Total: 45.5
*All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Line Movement
This line opened at Browns -9 and has been bet up to Browns -10.5 at some books, according to VegasInsider.com. The action is split with the Dolphins receiving 59% of the bets and both teams getting 50% of the money, according to The Action Network.
The total opened at 45 and has been bet up slightly to 45.5 at most books with 69% of the bets and 71% of the money coming in on the over.
Betting Trends
- Dolphins are 5-5 ATS this season
- Browns are 3-6-1 ATS this season
- Over is 6-4 in Dolphins games this season
- Over is 6-4 in Browns games this season
- Dolphins are 1-3 SU and 3-1 ATS on the road this season
- Browns are 2-3 SU and 1-3-1 ATS at home this season
*All trends are courtesy of Covers
Analysis & Picks
If you ignore the helmet swing heard round the world, you have to like what you saw from the Browns in their last two games. The defense is humming and the offense is slowly but surely figuring things out. You can’t deny the weapons Cleveland has at their disposal, it’s just a matter of learning how to use them all effectively. The return of Kareem Hunt has also added another element to an already potent Browns attack. Hunt has been very effective out of the backfield as a pass-catcher, with 13 receptions in his first two games back from suspension. The Dolphins are allowing almost 150 yards per game on the ground this season, and I think that is the matchup Cleveland will take advantage of. Expect Hunt and Nick Chubb to both have big games as the Browns grind out another win. Also, look to play both Hunt and Chubb props to the over if you feel so inclined. The total here seems spot on, so I would not recommend playing either over or under. Stick to the spread, swallow the points and fade the Dolphins.
PICK: Browns -10.5 (-110)
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